2018 as a Decision Matrix

[VFL-82-JP]

Just for fun, linked the Vols 2018 season together as a simple decision matrix, where each decision node (each game) can be a Win or a Loss. Here's how it came out:



How to read it: from left to right, it is in chronological order. Each node is a game. Green lines angle up; those are the path to follow after a Win. Red lines are the paths of losses. Because a previous game could be a W or an L, there are usually two or more nodes to represent each game. For example, the ETSU game could be on the node above their symbol, if we beat West Virginia the week prior, or it could be on the node below their symbol, if we lost to West Virginia. All the nodes that could represent a specific game are lined up vertically above and below the team icons. All the way at the right, the Vandy game (last game of the season) has 7 different possible nodes, because of all the ways the season could have played out to that point, and 8 different outcomes.

I included all possibilities that were even vaguely reasonable. Sure, we could beat Bama this year, or lose to East Tennessee, but both those outcomes are pretty darn unlikely, so they didn't make the matrix.

Where do I think we'll end up? 7-5 is most likely, though really, anything between 5-7 and 9-3 are pretty realistic alternatives.

What path do I think we'll take to get there? Lord only knows. Ha. Football is such a great sport, on any given Saturday....

Go Vols!

 

[Pruitt Will Do It]

2018 A Big Orange Matrix

 

[TexasVolfan1]

Every game outside of Bama, Georgia, and Auburn is winnable. The grind of that 3 game stretch is gonna take a toll on us though so i highly doubt we go 9-3, I’m saying probably 7-5. 6-6 should be the floor.

 

[Pruitt Will Do It]

Every game outside of Bama, Georgia, and Auburn is winnable. The grind of that 3 game stretch is gonna take a toll on us though so i highly doubt we go 9-3, I’m saying probably 7-5. 6-6 should be the floor.

Florida is going down in Neyland and 8-4 is going to happen

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Every game outside of Bama, Georgia, and Auburn is winnable. The grind of that 3 game stretch is gonna take a toll on us though so i highly doubt we go 9-3, I’m saying probably 7-5. 6-6 should be the floor.

At the outside edge, even Auburn could end up a W for us. Not because we have equal talent, but because they're Auburn. Up year, down year...hot, cold. Anyway I included it as a potential in in the matrix, just to cover all the bases.

 

[TexasVolfan1]

Very true. You never know what you’re gonna get with auburn from year to year

 

[VFL-82-JP]

One interesting path is the "streaky" one. Like this:
-- 4-0 through most of September
-- 0-3 over that brutal stretch from the end of September to the Third Saturday in October. Brings us to 4-3.
-- 5-0 to finish the year. Brings us to 9-3.

So, a very streaky season...4 Ws, followed by 3 Ls, followed by 5 Ws (and whatever the bowl game brings).

An 8-4 season could be the same way (including either Florida or South Carolina in a 4-Loss center piece)...but the 9-3 scenario is more fun to consider.

Anyway, I could certainly see us having a very streaky 2018.

 

[Glocker_Alum_2005]

Auburn will be tired when we come to the Plains. Miss St going to test them mightly the week prior and they are at Ole Miss the next week. Perfect set up for an upset.

 

[KBVol]

At the outside edge, even Auburn could end up a W for us. Not because we have equal talent, but because they're Auburn. Up year, down year...hot, cold. Anyway I included it as a potential in in the matrix, just to cover all the bases.

Plus, we’ll be coming off a bye week and Auburn will be playing it’s 7th straight game. I think they’ll be ripe for an upset based on both factors, we’re coming off a bye and this is regularly their “down” year.

 

[RavinDave]

One interesting path is the "streaky" one. Like this:
-- 4-0 through most of September
-- 0-3 over that brutal stretch from the end of September to the Third Saturday in October. Brings us to 4-3.
-- 5-0 to finish the year. Brings us to 9-3.

So, a very streaky season...4 Ws, followed by 3 Ls, followed by 5 Ws (and whatever the bowl game brings).

An 8-4 season could be the same way (including either Florida or South Carolina in a 4-Loss center piece)...but the 9-3 scenario is more fun to consider.

Anyway, I could certainly see us having a very streaky 2018.

I like the Streaky 9-3 Scenario. Long long odds, but as you say, on any given Saturday...

 

[DiderotsGhost]

Good work. Very interesting.

Decision matrix? Is that anything like a decision tree?

In any case, the only thing I'd disagree with is leaving Alabama out. You're right that it's unlikely, but I wouldn't consider it nearly as 'unlikely' as losing to ETSU. Losing to ETSU is probably like 0.1% and beating Alabama is probably something like 2% - 4%.

Though, 7-5 is my preseason guess, too. Call me an orange-shades wearing homer (and maybe I am), but I think we beat WV and Florida and start 4-0. After that, I don't know, except that we're probably losing a lot. Auburn, GA, and Bama is a murderer's row. SC in Columbia is no cakewalk. Mizzou will be tougher than people think.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Good work. Very interesting.

Decision matrix? Is that anything like a decision tree?

In any case, the only thing I'd disagree with is leaving Alabama out. You're right that it's unlikely, but I wouldn't consider it nearly as 'unlikely' as losing to ETSU. Losing to ETSU is probably like 0.1% and beating Alabama is probably something like 2% - 4%.

Though, 7-5 is my preseason guess, too. Call me an orange-shades wearing homer (and maybe I am), but I think we beat WV and Florida and start 4-0. After that, I don't know, except that we're probably losing a lot. Auburn, GA, and Bama is a murderer's row. SC in Columbia is no cakewalk. Mizzou will be tougher than people think.

Heh, I think I actually used the wrong term. Decision tree is probably closer to right. Flow chart would be closer still.

I agree that beating Bama is far more likely (relatively speaking) than losing to East Tennessee. But I just didn't think either one of them were likely enough to include in the chart. I'm lazy, I like to leave out what I can. Plus, I think it helps clarify what we're most likely to see as the season plays out.

You orange-shades wearing homer, you. Me too!