2017 By the numbers...

#1
D

daj2576

@aVolForLife
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#1
Signing day is over, so I can lay out the talent average seasonal predictions (recall that I was only 1 game off last year [and the year before] for these regarding UT).

NCAA2017.png

A few key notes:

1) This is the most talented team that UT has fielded as far as the data can take me (2005), but...

2) We will play 3 of the top 5 most talented teams in football (Bama, LSU and Georgia). I can't find another team in a quick search who plays an equal amount or more of the top 5 teams.

3) Even though we are the most talented using these ratings as we have ever been (and the 8th most talented team in the country), we still will face 3 more talented teams and are the 5th most talented SEC team (second in the east).

4)For comparison, if UT was in the BIG XII, they would be the most talented team. Further, UT would be the second most talented in the ACC, B1G, and PAC.

5) The talent gap against Florida has grown to be big enough that I think it overcomes home field advantage in the swamp.

6) In sum, 2017 looks to be another predicted 9 win regular season (an expected range of no less than 8 and no more than 10), with a second place SEC east finish, again. To continue an upward trend, though, recruiting this year needs to be stellar. Perhaps as expectations will be lower from the intelligentsia due to losses to the draft, if the team falls within the range shown above (or a better performance) the Vols will be seen as over-achieving and recruiting will explode. That is the scenario we need...
 
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#2
#2
daj2576 said:
Signing day is over, so I can lay out the talent average seasonal predictions (recall that I was only 1 game off last year [and the year before] for these regarding UT).

View attachment 127856

A few key notes:

1) This is the most talented team that UT has fielded as far as the data can take me (2005), but...

2) We will play 3 of the top 5 most talented teams in football (Bama, LSU and Georgia). I can't find another team in a quick search who plays an equal amount or more of the top 5 teams.

3) Even though we are the most talented using these ratings as we have ever been (and the 8th most talented team in the country), we still will face 3 more talented teams and are the 5th most talented SEC team (second in the east).

4)For comparison, if UT was in the BIG XII, they would be the most talented team. Further, UT would be the second most talented in the ACC, B1G, and PAC.

5) The talent gap against Florida has grown to be big enough that I think it overcomes home field advantage in the swamp.

6) In sum, 2017 looks to be another 9 win regular season (an expected range of no less than 8 and no more than 10), with a second place SEC east finish, again. To continue an upward trend, though, recruiting this year needs to be stellar. Perhaps as expectations will be lower from the intelligentsia due to losses to the draft, if the team falls within the range above (or above) they will be seen as over-achieving and recruiting will explode. That is the scenario we need...
Click to expand...

I really enjoy the analysis that you do in breaking all of this down. However, we haven't had a 9 win regular season since Fulmer was coaching. (2007)
 
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#3
#3
90 Vol said:
I really enjoy the analysis that you do in breaking all of this down. However, we haven't had a 9 win regular season since Fulmer was coaching. (2007)
Click to expand...

Apologies. I wrote that really fast in between other tasks without being specific enough. I meant another PREDICTED 9 win regular season.
 
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#4
#4
daj2576 said:
Signing day is over, so I can lay out the talent average seasonal predictions (recall that I was only 1 game off last year [and the year before] for these regarding UT).

View attachment 127856

A few key notes:

1) This is the most talented team that UT has fielded as far as the data can take me (2005), but...

2) We will play 3 of the top 5 most talented teams in football (Bama, LSU and Georgia). I can't find another team in a quick search who plays an equal amount or more of the top 5 teams.

3) Even though we are the most talented using these ratings as we have ever been (and the 8th most talented team in the country), we still will face 3 more talented teams and are the 5th most talented SEC team (second in the east).

4)For comparison, if UT was in the BIG XII, they would be the most talented team. Further, UT would be the second most talented in the ACC, B1G, and PAC.

5) The talent gap against Florida has grown to be big enough that I think it overcomes home field advantage in the swamp.

6) In sum, 2017 looks to be another 9 win regular season (an expected range of no less than 8 and no more than 10), with a second place SEC east finish, again. To continue an upward trend, though, recruiting this year needs to be stellar. Perhaps as expectations will be lower from the intelligentsia due to losses to the draft, if the team falls within the range above (or above) they will be seen as over-achieving and recruiting will explode. That is the scenario we need...
Click to expand...

Last season you predicted loses to Alabama, T A&M, USCe and Vandy? Of you just predicted 4 loses in general?
 
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#5
#5
daj2576 said:
Signing day is over, so I can lay out the talent average seasonal predictions (recall that I was only 1 game off last year [and the year before] for these regarding UT).

View attachment 127856

A few key notes:

1) This is the most talented team that UT has fielded as far as the data can take me (2005), but...

2) We will play 3 of the top 5 most talented teams in football (Bama, LSU and Georgia). I can't find another team in a quick search who plays an equal amount or more of the top 5 teams.

3) Even though we are the most talented using these ratings as we have ever been (and the 8th most talented team in the country), we still will face 3 more talented teams and are the 5th most talented SEC team (second in the east).

4)For comparison, if UT was in the BIG XII, they would be the most talented team. Further, UT would be the second most talented in the ACC, B1G, and PAC.

5) The talent gap against Florida has grown to be big enough that I think it overcomes home field advantage in the swamp.

6) In sum, 2017 looks to be another predicted 9 win regular season (an expected range of no less than 8 and no more than 10), with a second place SEC east finish, again. To continue an upward trend, though, recruiting this year needs to be stellar. Perhaps as expectations will be lower from the intelligentsia due to losses to the draft, if the team falls within the range above (or above) they will be seen as over-achieving and recruiting will explode. That is the scenario we need...
Click to expand...

Good stuff day. I always enjoy your projections and insight. Thanks for sharing. :hi:
 
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#6
#6
BeardedVol said:
Last season you predicted loses to Alabama, T A&M, USCe and Vandy? Of you just predicted 4 loses in general?
Click to expand...

Pretty sure it was just a general record.

IIRC it would have had UT losing to UGA but beating Vandy and SC based off the chart.
 
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#7
#7
Hey daj do you have the 2015 chart by any chance? Thanks
 
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#9
#9
daj2576 said:
4)For comparison, if UT was in the BIG XII, they would be the most talented team.
Click to expand...

Yeah, just imagine how we would be in control of our own destiny, and win the Big 12 if not for late season losses to Iowa St and Kansas.
 
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#10
#10
daj2576 said:
Apologies. I wrote that really fast in between other tasks without being specific enough. I meant another PREDICTED 9 win regular season.
Click to expand...

No worries.:hi: I appreciate the insight. It's very informative.
 
#11
#11
Good stuff, daj. Being the long off-season, I will daydream of the Vols defeating one or more of the three teams "in the red." GBO.
 
#12
#12
As long as the team can avoid an avalanche of injuries in 2017, I think we can surprise a lot of people. Everyone will be picking us to finish 3rd in the East. There will be no expectations to win the East.

I believe we go 10-2 or 11-1. We'll beat Florida and Georgia once again. We'll lose to Alabama. The swing game between 10 or 11 wins will be the game against LSU. Either way we'll win the SEC East and face Auburn or Alabama for the SEC Championship.
 
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#13
#13
Tin Man said:
Good stuff, daj. Being the long off-season, I will daydream of the Vols defeating one or more of the three teams "in the red." GBO.
Click to expand...

Definitely think we have a shot at georgia...Smart took over a 10-3 team and went 8-5....

and while they return a lot, they do lose 3 starting OL...
 
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#14
#14
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
As long as the team can avoid an avalanche of injuries in 2017, I think we can surprise a lot of people. Everyone will be picking us to finish 3rd in the East. There will be no expectations to win the East.

I believe we go 10-2 or 11-1. We'll beat Florida and Georgia once again. We'll lose to Alabama. The swing game between 10 or 11 wins will be the game against LSU. Either way we'll win the SEC East and face Auburn or Alabama for the SEC Championship.
Click to expand...

giphy.gif
 
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#15
#15
daj2576 said:
Not on my phone but you can search my previous posts for it.
Click to expand...

Ok cool. I'm trying to see if Butch is averaging 1 overall loss per season that he shouldn't. If so, 8-4 seems like a likely record this year.
 
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#16
#16
I found it! In both 2015 and 2016 we lost against two teams that we should not have, and won against one that we shouldn't have. If that pattern continues, 2017 will look something like this (according to the formula)

Two losses that we shouldn't have: FL and South Carolina

One win that we shouldn't have: UGA/LSU

Finish 8-4
 
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#17
#17
BeecherVol said:
Pretty sure it was just a general record.

IIRC it would have had UT losing to UGA but beating Vandy and SC based off the chart.
Click to expand...

Where did he mention he predicted 4 loses last year? Specifically or in general?
 
#21
#21
So.....8-4? (3 losses due to talent 1 loss due to CBJ losing at least one game he should)

Sweet, we are BACK!!
 
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#23
#23
BeardedVol said:
Whelp, numbers have been brought out, better point out the 'safe space' to minimize the meltdowns...
Click to expand...

Why?
The quotes I've been seeing from you guys have been 6-6 or a miracle to get to 7 and 5. Why would 8-4 make them meltdown?
 
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