16 vs 17

[#27VFL]

I wanted to compare each group as a whole unit in comparison to each year. Taking into account projected growth and development and the injuries that occurred last season...

QB - 2016 - Dobbs may not have had the arm for accuracy but was very mobile and a leader. Against teams like USC and Vandy he was not impressive. However without Dobbs last season we would have lost to UGA and UF.

WR - 2016 - the only real drop off from last season is Malone. But I think he is that big of a difference maker to give the edge to 2016. This is a close call bc guys like Callowayand Byrd could show to be much improved but for now I say 2016.

TE- 2017 - this years unit will be a difference maker due to guys being stronger and more focused than last season.

OL 2017- this unit will be better at all 5 positions than last season. It's time to put up or shut up. No group on the team has such star power and reason to be successful as the 2017 OL. I think Mahoney leaving and Wells stepping in already is changing the culture of the OL.

RB - 2016 - losing Hurd is not a concern bc he was not all in in 2016. However losing Kamara will hurt us. Ty Chandler could prove to be a star and I think he will. He is quick like Kamara. ...but he is a boy at this point. Kamara was a man. Give him a couple years and Ty will be there. JK will be strength of the group. His health is most important for the offense this year.

Offense - 2016 - the OL and TE will be key. If we can prove to run the ball which I think we will then it will open up the passing game. That's something Dobbs had to work against many times. Teams like USC and Vandy were able to stop the run without stacking the box. Will be important for the OL to open holes in 2017.




Defense

LB - 2017 - I give the edge to 2017 strongly. Our best LB was Kirkland jr in my opinion. He was hurt even when he did play. At times we were down to our 4th string LB. maybin was hurt all season as well. This group will be healthy and a year imporoved.

Safety- 2017 - the safety position will be much improved with TKjr, Warrior, Gray, Abernathy, and Berry. TK and Berry are seniors and will lead this group well. New DB coach has high expectations for his group.

Cornerback- 2017 - had Cam Sutton played more of last season I would have said last season. But bc he did not we played a true fresh often. That group will be a year older and a new and better DB coach. Players like Gaulden and Martin already look Years better in the spring game and practices. The X factor is The addition of SHAQ WIGGINS. His leadership and high level of play will make this unit SEC ready. Last season I would have said we were worst corners in the sec. this year I would put us around 6-10th. This is a big improvement

DT - 2017 - McKenzie, Tuttle, Obrien were lost for the year early on. The addition of a 2nd year juco DT and others getting healthy will make this group much improved. Players like McKenzie are looking to make a splash this season in hopes of getting drafted as juniors. I realize that sounds extreme considering lack of production to this point. But his upside is huge.

DE - 2016 - losing the 3 best DEs on your team is a big loss. Brady Hoke has lots of talent to replace them. If he can generate just 70% of the production this unit had I will be impressed. Barnett was the best. But now it's time for Kyle Phillips, Kongbo, Darrell Taylor, and a young guy or 2 like Matthew Butler to step up and show out.

Defense- 2017 - this unit will miss Cam Sutton and Derek Barnett most. But I think the Defense will be stronger, more disciplined and another year under 2nd year DC.

Overall - 2017- defense wins championships. I don't see us in any championships this year. But I do believe our improved OL and DT group are the foundation. The big boys are the difference makers in my opinion.

2017 prediction????

9-3
Losses to Bama, LSU, and UGA

 

[jakez4ut]

conventional wisdom probably agrees with the assessments of the offense/defense heading from 16 to 17.

i guess 9-3 is possible, but i still say with a lot of new faces at important spots (DE and QB in particular) on the field, and all the new faces on the sidelines, it's hard to predict how all that meshes in one off season, and translates to a significant improvement on the field and in the results.

throw in the depth issues up front on defense and at RB, i think it's just easier to see another 8-4 season, or even a dip to 7-5, depending on maybe how much this team improves as the season goes along, and how healthy we can stay throughout the season.

 

[RollerVol]

to me, we've got just as many mysteries as last year, so, I wouldn't be surprised whatever happens, but it seems, when we have less expectations we have a better season...will it be better...stay tuned...and,

GO VOLS!

 

[UT Hill Man]

One difference I see is '16 the slogan was "Own It", and that kind of put unwelcome expectations on everyone.

This year Tennessee’s football slogan is — D.A.T. — which stands for “Details, Accountability and Toughness". All of which are very attainable by team '17.

https://www.seccountry.com/tennessee/tennessee-fotball-vols-butch-jones-dat-slogan

 

[jakez4ut]

One difference I see is '16 the slogan was "Own It", and that kind of put unwelcome expectations on everyone.

This year Tennessee’s football slogan is — D.A.T. — which stands for “Details, Accountability and Toughness". All of which are very attainable by team '17.

https://www.seccountry.com/tennessee/tennessee-fotball-vols-butch-jones-dat-slogan

eh, i disagree. i think "own it" was totally applicable.

the execution of owning it...well, that's debatable.

 

[captennmike]

Nice OP and good comments. Exactly what I hope to see when I log on here. The season just seems so far away, this helps a little, (I think). Anyhow, thanks guys, GBO

 

[VOLINVONORE]

eh, i disagree. i think "own it" was totally applicable.

the execution of owning it...well, that's debatable.

I disagree.I think the biggest difference is accountability and injuries. Reduce the injuries and increase accountability and the season will be better than 16.

 

[Sarms58]

I disagree.I think the biggest difference is accountability and injuries. Reduce the injuries and increase accountability and the season will be better than 16.

Injuries will happen but hopefully not to key players and hopefully not in the same positions. Losing 4 of your top 5 LBs and 4 of your top 5 DTs really made it hard to run an effective D. Lots of people diss Jumper but at least he stayed healthy. He and Vickers were heathy all year.

This year our D is most thin at experienced DEs...we need to avoid any injuries...

 

[jakez4ut]

I disagree.I think the biggest difference is accountability and injuries. Reduce the injuries and increase accountability and the season will be better than 16.

exactly. own it.

and i'll say that while it was happening, i think CBJ totally missed the mark on what "owning it" really means by how he handled the communication to media and fans.

but, he did address the issues everyone saw, so we'll see how it plays out. not really trying to go back thru all that.

only concerned about what happens going forward.:thumbsup:

 

[terrypedigo]

I wanted to compare each group as a whole unit in comparison to each year. Taking into account projected growth and development and the injuries that occurred last season...

QB - 2016 - Dobbs may not have had the arm for accuracy but was very mobile and a leader. Against teams like USC and Vandy he was not impressive. However without Dobbs last season we would have lost to UGA and UF.

WR - 2016 - the only real drop off from last season is Malone. But I think he is that big of a difference maker to give the edge to 2016. This is a close call bc guys like Callowayand Byrd could show to be much improved but for now I say 2016.

TE- 2017 - this years unit will be a difference maker due to guys being stronger and more focused than last season.

OL 2017- this unit will be better at all 5 positions than last season. It's time to put up or shut up. No group on the team has such star power and reason to be successful as the 2017 OL. I think Mahoney leaving and Wells stepping in already is changing the culture of the OL.

RB - 2016 - losing Hurd is not a concern bc he was not all in in 2016. However losing Kamara will hurt us. Ty Chandler could prove to be a star and I think he will. He is quick like Kamara. ...but he is a boy at this point. Kamara was a man. Give him a couple years and Ty will be there. JK will be strength of the group. His health is most important for the offense this year.

Offense - 2016 - the OL and TE will be key. If we can prove to run the ball which I think we will then it will open up the passing game. That's something Dobbs had to work against many times. Teams like USC and Vandy were able to stop the run without stacking the box. Will be important for the OL to open holes in 2017.




Defense

LB - 2017 - I give the edge to 2017 strongly. Our best LB was Kirkland jr in my opinion. He was hurt even when he did play. At times we were down to our 4th string LB. maybin was hurt all season as well. This group will be healthy and a year imporoved.

Safety- 2017 - the safety position will be much improved with TKjr, Warrior, Gray, Abernathy, and Berry. TK and Berry are seniors and will lead this group well. New DB coach has high expectations for his group.

Cornerback- 2017 - had Cam Sutton played more of last season I would have said last season. But bc he did not we played a true fresh often. That group will be a year older and a new and better DB coach. Players like Gaulden and Martin already look Years better in the spring game and practices. The X factor is The addition of SHAQ WIGGINS. His leadership and high level of play will make this unit SEC ready. Last season I would have said we were worst corners in the sec. this year I would put us around 6-10th. This is a big improvement

DT - 2017 - McKenzie, Tuttle, Obrien were lost for the year early on. The addition of a 2nd year juco DT and others getting healthy will make this group much improved. Players like McKenzie are looking to make a splash this season in hopes of getting drafted as juniors. I realize that sounds extreme considering lack of production to this point. But his upside is huge.

DE - 2016 - losing the 3 best DEs on your team is a big loss. Brady Hoke has lots of talent to replace them. If he can generate just 70% of the production this unit had I will be impressed. Barnett was the best. But now it's time for Kyle Phillips, Kongbo, Darrell Taylor, and a young guy or 2 like Matthew Butler to step up and show out.

Defense- 2017 - this unit will miss Cam Sutton and Derek Barnett most. But I think the Defense will be stronger, more disciplined and another year under 2nd year DC.

Overall - 2017- defense wins championships. I don't see us in any championships this year. But I do believe our improved OL and DT group are the foundation. The big boys are the difference makers in my opinion.

2017 prediction????

9-3
Losses to Bama, LSU, and UGA

We will go 8 and 4 beat someone that we should not and lose to a team coming of a big win.

 

[VolBricks]

I think 8-4 is the number. With losses to Bama, LSU, UGA and some team we are expected to beat but lay down flat against.

I might revise this to 9-3 based on the first game against GT. If the defense comes out and shuts down that rushing attack I might be a little more optimistic about 2017.

 

[sechamp2012]

I think 8-4 is the number. With losses to Bama, LSU, UGA and some team we are expected to beat but lay down flat against.

I might revise this to 9-3 based on the first game against GT. If the defense comes out and shuts down that rushing attack I might be a little more optimistic about 2017.

The game against GT is vital need a W for sure but I wouldn't gauge the D for rest of year on how they play D against GT. I've seen D's struggle against teams like GT , Air Force and Georgia Southern etal and then play lights out against traditional O's.

 

[#1ManningFan]

September will tell us how the season will play out with GT, FL and UGA on tab. We go 3-0 in those games then we have massive momentum. If we go 2-1 in those three games we are still alive and in the hunt. 0-3? Well you can fill in the rest...

 

[#27VFL]

We will go 8 and 4 beat someone that we should not and lose to a team coming of a big win.

Yes I think so. I simplified the expectations of 9-3 but really think we will beat either LSU or Bama. And I think we will drop an egg to UK, Vandy, or USC

 

[BeecherVol]

eh, i disagree. i think "own it" was totally applicable.

the execution of owning it...well, that's debatable.

True

 

[BeardedVol]

Still not sure why anyone thinks the OLine is going to magically 180 from our biggest liability, to our biggest strength. it's not been about talent, at least not the last two years, and last year Debord, Mahoney, and Wells working in concert couldn't teach the execution of Butch's blocking schemes to any combination of linemen.

Why should anyone believe that Wells is capable of doing it on his own? Nothing in his coaching history suggests as much either.

 

[njvols]

Great write up for off season discussions! I think if all points brought up fairly well meet expectation, that it will come down to QB play and Scott play calling. If we can show folks we can spread the ball accurately all over the field, short and long, then that will give us a real chance to be a truly balanced offense. If we play too run conservative and don't unleash the QB, whoever it is, we're going to get in that game where someone shuts down our run, and we're in trouble. Dobbs def had that x factor in games like UGA/UF, but also, though stats were OK, I don't think we really scared people enough to think we could beat them by leaning on the passing game. Though love Dobbs, I think we all kinda cringed when we had that 3rd and 6, and just needed a quick out, button hook or hot pass to TE or slot to keep a drive moving. Also, hope Scott has game for play calling. In those games last year when we were jeckyl/hyde, in first half, it drove me crazy when we'd have two runs up the middle, have 3rd and 7, and have three and outs on seemingly more than just back to back series.

 

[sjt18]

I wanted to compare each group as a whole unit in comparison to each year. Taking into account projected growth and development and the injuries that occurred last season...

QB - 2016 - Dobbs may not have had the arm for accuracy but was very mobile and a leader. Against teams like USC and Vandy he was not impressive. However without Dobbs last season we would have lost to UGA and UF.

With someone else the game plan changes. If that someone were QD and he was as timely and accurate with his passes as he was in the spring game... then UT would have beaten UGA and UF.

WR - 2016 - the only real drop off from last season is Malone. But I think he is that big of a difference maker to give the edge to 2016. This is a close call bc guys like Callowayand Byrd could show to be much improved but for now I say 2016.

IMHO, depends on O staff changes and how WR's are used. I think the 9 man rotation that Jones said he wanted when he arrived... doesn't work well in the SEC.

TE- 2017

- They weren't great last year.... so not a very high bar.

OL 2017- .

A genuine unknown. They should have been significantly better last year with or without injuries... and weren't. The "why" will be the tell on whether they are better this year or not. If it is anything BUT talent then maybe the changes have resolved the problems.

I personally think Dobbs and maybe Hurd were factors here as well. Dobbs' creativity made it hard on OL's. I think that's why they were better at run blocking than pass blocking. They also looked better blocking for Kamara or Kelly than for Hurd. Obviously Hurd can be successful in that type of O... but his style probably makes it harder on an OL.

RB - 2016 -

Disagree. Hurd leaving was a factor last year. AK is definitely a big play, change of pace type RB... but he isn't an every down feature back. IMO, JK is... and has a couple of pretty decent talents behind him. UT hasn't been sufficiently deep at several positions since Jones arrived. RB is one of them... and that didn't change. But CFA, TC, and JK could give them 3 options where they only had two last year coming into the season.

If anything, I think losing Dobbs will hurt overall run game production more than a let down at RB.

Offense - 2016

Depends on a lot of things. If QD wins the job and the OL protects him well... then the passing game could be significantly better. The pass game would then replace Dobbs running as the compliment to JK's running.

If what we saw in the spring game is a true indication of QD's confidence, accuracy, decision making, and on time passing then the O could be improved. If it isn't or the OL doesn't finally become better than mediocre... it could be a very long year.

Defense

LB - 2017

Difficult for it to get worse. Each of the 3 SEC caliber LB's spent time injured. Everyone else in the CFB world seems to be able to get production from young players or experienced guys with limited talent. Even Vandy can get guys who play their responsibilities. Hopefully, UT will finally do that as well or get production out of guys who were supposed to be talented when UT signed them.

Safety- 2017 - the safety position will be much improved

.... Hopefully. But if the front 7 doesn't improve... you won't be able to tell if the safety group is better or not.

Cornerback- 2017 -

Unknown. On the one hand, you could be right and everything comes together. On the other hand, there was a STARK difference with and without Sutton last fall.

DT - 2017 -

There's still no depth and too many guys coming off injury. Due to size, it is difficult to see either of the Fr making a contribution. If you count Bain who all jokes aside seemed to play well at times last year... UT has potentially 5 DT's that can rotate in. Maybe Johnson surprises to give UT 6. UT desperately needs more DT depth... but it won't be this year. If Tuttle or KM get hurt... it could get ugly again.

DE - 2016 -

Maybe the worst part is that some of the guys returning that we had high hopes for as recruits... have not yet come close to playing as expected.

Defense- 2017

Shoop has never had a D as bad as last year... anywhere. However, his D's generally take a nice step forward in year 2.

The signing class included 5 DE's though one or two could end up DT's. Hopefully, there will be some push from that group.

Overall - 2017- defense wins championships. I don't see us in any championships this year. But I do believe our improved OL and DT group are the foundation. The big boys are the difference makers in my opinion.

2017 prediction????

9-3
Losses to Bama, LSU, and UGA

A lot of unknowns and the specter of injuries to thin position groups make that a very optimistic prediction. OTOH, if the S&C and new staff make a difference in injuries, preparation, etc then it could actually be better than that.

IMO, UF and LSU are a pair. Win one, win both. Lose one, lose both. Just a feeling... based on a feeling.

 

[sjt18]

Still not sure why anyone thinks the OLine is going to magically 180 from our biggest liability, to our biggest strength. it's not been about talent, at least not the last two years, and last year Debord, Mahoney, and Wells working in concert couldn't teach the execution of Butch's blocking schemes to any combination of linemen.

Why should anyone believe that Wells is capable of doing it on his own? Nothing in his coaching history suggests as much either.

I'm not one to spray rose water cologne on things... but...

I think S&C could make a positive difference.

Sidenote: Have you been here long enough to remember the grandiose reports from when Lawson took over from Dooley's gang? Stories were spread about how workouts under Dooley were basically voluntary and that many guys would just sign in and leave. Now just a few years later, Lawson and his crew were dirt.

I suspect that Rock will be much better... but maybe McKeefery wasn't as lost as so many thought. Funny how being a UT "ex" coach changes someone's talent so much. UT really hasn't had an OL that avoided injuries or looked like they were ready to play in the SEC since the one Jones inherited from Dooley and McKeefery.

Also, I think both Hurd and Dobbs presented a problem for OL's trying to execute precise techniques in Jones' scheme. I think that also helps explain why Kelly and Kamara had such high ypc compared to Hurd.

Lastly, if you have ever tried to pass block, you know that being able to predict where the QB will be in the pocket is all important. Dobbs' creativity... also made him highly unpredictable. Which probably made him a nightmare to pass block for.

I guess we'll see.

 

[IknoxvolsI]

Don't have Kamara and not gonna miss Hurd but do have a decen't back coming back. WR's took a slight hit but the QB situation, I think, will be slightly better. All three, QB, RB and WR will be better because of O'line play.

Defense could be flip of a coin.

 

[Rudy123]

Q.B. is an unknown. However; whomever is our starting q.b., they may or may not play better than Dobbs, but they will not have the experience that he has.
D.T. Couldn't keep O'Brien, Tuttle of McK. healthy. If Tuttle & McK are healthy, they will make a difference and then head to the NFL.
D.E. I see a drop off in 2017
L.B. I see a drop off in 2017 because we will miss Maybin.
T.E. I see Wolf having a good year because in games that the passing game is not going well, we will run it a lot and also make short passes to the T.E.
O.L. will be the same as 2016
T.B. Hope Chandler & Kelly can handle things well because we only have those two at T.B. A major injury to one of those two would hurt the running game.

 

[Evet Vols]

Q.B. is an unknown. However; whomever is our starting q.b., they may or may not play better than Dobbs, but they will not have the experience that he has.
D.T. Couldn't keep O'Brien, Tuttle of McK. healthy. If Tuttle & McK are healthy, they will make a difference and then head to the NFL.
D.E. I see a drop off in 2017
L.B. I see a drop off in 2017 because we will miss Maybin.
T.E. I see Wolf having a good year because in games that the passing game is not going well, we will run it a lot and also make short passes to the T.E.
O.L. will be the same as 2016
T.B. Hope Chandler & Kelly can handle things well because we only have those two at T.B. A major injury to one of those two would hurt the running game.

LBs will be better this year if they stay healthy. Maybin played in first two games. He tried playing in a couple others but couldn't tackle.

 

[BeardedVol]

I'm not one to spray rose water cologne on things... but...

I think S&C could make a positive difference.

Sidenote: Have you been here long enough to remember the grandiose reports from when Lawson took over from Dooley's gang? Stories were spread about how workouts under Dooley were basically voluntary and that many guys would just sign in and leave. Now just a few years later, Lawson and his crew were dirt.

I suspect that Rock will be much better... but maybe McKeefery wasn't as lost as so many thought. Funny how being a UT "ex" coach changes someone's talent so much. UT really hasn't had an OL that avoided injuries or looked like they were ready to play in the SEC since the one Jones inherited from Dooley and McKeefery.

Also, I think both Hurd and Dobbs presented a problem for OL's trying to execute precise techniques in Jones' scheme. I think that also helps explain why Kelly and Kamara had such high ypc compared to Hurd.

Lastly, if you have ever tried to pass block, you know that being able to predict where the QB will be in the pocket is all important. Dobbs' creativity... also made him highly unpredictable. Which probably made him a nightmare to pass block for.

I guess we'll see.

Chicken before the egg? Dobbs scrambling put the Oline out of position, or the Oline being out of position caused Dobbs to scramble?

There were too many instances of Olineman standing around looking confused while not engaging a defender to put Dobbs' scrambling as the reason the oline didn't know the blocking schemes.

Rock should keep them from getting pushed around by App State sized Dlines, but unless there's a seachange in either the schemes themselves, or how Wells tries to teach them, I don't see a flip from worst liability to number 1 strength.

 

[jakez4ut]

Chicken before the egg? Dobbs scrambling put the Oline out of position, or the Oline being out of position caused Dobbs to scramble?

There were too many instances of Olineman standing around looking confused while not engaging a defender to put Dobbs' scrambling as the reason the oline didn't know the blocking schemes.

Rock should keep them from getting pushed around by App State sized Dlines, but unless there's a seachange in either the schemes themselves, or how Wells tries to teach them, I don't see a flip from worst liability to number 1 strength.

i'll just say this, the last time we had a 'pocket' qb, was worley and peterman, and they got killed. Dobbs goes in and the rest is history.

i think the QB change is important, and it won't take long to see what, if any, difference there is in how the qb can manage the pocket.

my gut says they're going to be better. this really should be a good group. if it reverts back to what we saw in 2013 pre-Dobbs from a pass protection standpoint, to say i'd be disappointed would be a giant understatement.

i think teams will play us to stop the run, and make a qb beat them. the only thing defenses will know, is that they won't have the headache of trying to stop Dobbs running.

another reason i'm glad they're doing the 7 on 7. building the chemistry and communication with O line and skill position players is going to be important.

 

[Backwards K]

A few items to consider:
1. Injury prone players get injured. Tuttle, McKenzie, and Kirkland have proven to be injury prone. W/O 2 of those 3, this defense will struggle.
2. Most of the main defensive players missed spring practice to injuries. Difficult to gel in just a month of practice going into a tough opener.
3. A new QB needs a plus running game to help settle in. Unproven RBs and an OL that has never been dominant is a red flag
4. WR corps needs to find a replacement to Malone as a deep threat or opposing safeties will be able to help control the running game. Vols have to have a home run threat.
5. Defense has to get an edge pass rusher to replace Barnett. DBs need help by not giving opposing QBs time to throw.
6. This team is devoid of star power. Every championship contender needs a star player they can depend don to make plays. Last year, the offense had Dobbs and the defense had Barnett. Who does this team have as a proven playmaker?

Unless some young players emerge or some vets improve greatly, this team will do good to win 7.