10-2: I don’t see 3 losses on this schedule

[T2P_Priceless]

You don’t see 3 losses? Look closer

 

[Rocky Top T]

I can see 7-9 wins! Florida and LSU are not easy wins!!!!! Crazy!!!!

 

[utvols74]

Love the optimism. Florida still makes me nervous. In theory, we should beat them easily. But, we also should’ve beaten them every year the Muschamp was coach and we couldn’t. They just seem to have our number, even when they suck.

That or incredibly good luck with hail Mary passes, freak catches, UT fumble at the goal line, etc. It's uncanny really.

 

[VAVol85]

I was a little extreme with the ‘Butch Jones, Sr’ line, but I do think Brian Kelly benefited from some easy schedules at Notre Dame. I can’t remember a ‘big’ game that they won during his tenure. I’m just not sure he’s gonna make it at LSU.

They’ve lost a lot of talent and had serious culture issues the last few years. Eli Ricks left for Bama and I’ve heard he doesn’t want to practice at Bama and may not start at the beginning of the season. That’s the type of culture Kelly is walking into at LSU.

”Butch Jones Sr.” was my favorite line from the post! Then RDU had to remind us that they had won championships with Les and O so that even BJ Sr is going to be an upgrade. I am afraid this game is the one that keeps us from double digit wins.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

I easily see 4 losses.

 

[Devo182]

Would you make a bet on winning 10+ regular season games?

If so, Vegas has us only at 7.5 wins. Might as well bet every single dollar you can possibly borrow if you believe that. You're saying there's only an 8% chance of us losing fewer than 7.5 games

 

[GoodmanVol]

Never thought I’d see Florida and “easy W” in the same sentence

Neither did South Carolina last year

 

[sjt18]

I easily see 4 losses.

Which 4?

 

[Eastknox865]

You guys need to lower your expectations for this team. One injury to a key position and the bottom could fall out. Lose Hooker, Banks, or Tillman then what do we have. Football is a long season and we aren't a deep team.

 

[Go47]

To this point... you have completely ignored at least 50% of the equation... the opponents.

Maybe. But UT played competitive against both as deep as their roster would take them last year... and have improved depth across the board this year.

Are they? If they are... it is by degrees. These games are frankly tests of the coaching staff quality.

Oh, I guess... since you say so....

NOPE. UT fans should EXPECT 8 wins this year.. . .


So? If the competition had produced the starter who eventually proved to be the best... UT would have run out ahead in that game. It would have likely looked a lot like Mizzou or USCe. So what changed since UT spotted Pitt a half and still almost won? Pitt lost its Heisman caliber QB, Fr AA WR, five of its top 7 WR's, 2 or 3 DB's from an already shaky unit... and UT got deeper and likely better across the board. The only two losses that should not be upgraded both in terms of quality and depth are Jones and Taylor. Mays was a good player but he was injured a lot.

Pitt will likely be better on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

Concerning opponents - Florida has never lacked talent; we could beat them . . . But it will probably be a close game. I will believe we beat the Gators when it happens. The LSU game is at LSU.

The opponents angle works both ways I guess. Folks always see the improvements their teams make while assuming less of their opponents.

Nobody expected Heupel to have the Vols playing as they did (at times). His impact was immediate. The assumption is Napier won’t do the same . . . With talent at Florida . . .

South Carolina will be improved I think. LSU will be improved I think. Both are road games.

I completely agree that the Pitt game is super important (also a road game). Lose to Pitt and Florida . . . And we are looking at 7-5 tops. Split those games and 8-4 is possible. I think a 10 win or 9 win season with our depth / line issues is . . . A pipe dream. But, who knows. It’s college football.

 

[livefaith]

It ever ends does it?

 

[volsack]

I know, orange tinted glasses, but with our offense rolling into its second season with Heup and a defense improving with some really proven position coaches, I expect some good things from this team. 10-2 seems like a big jump from 2020, but then I looked at the schedule a little bit more....

Ball St- Easy W. And we play them on a Thursday night so we have more time to prepare for....

Pitt - They lost too much off last year’s team. If Hooker had been the starter from the get go last year, we beat them by 2 tds. Heup with 2 extra days to prepare? Forget about it.

Akron - Easy W.

Florida - Easy W.

Seriously though , they are in too much turmoil and lack talent on the lines and at WR. Didn’t they just lose a WR to injury? Better luck next year losers gators.

Bye - A little early, but good for a break before LSU and bama. Heup can cook up some plays.

LSU - Also a team with a lot of recent turmoil. Brian Kelly is just Butch Jones, Sr. and been able to hide that with Notre Dame’s weak schedule.

Bama - This one is going to be tough. Saban has a renewed drive after losing to Jumbo and Kirby last year. Look for us to play them close however. If they hadn’t gotten the Georgia WR, I’d say this could be an upset special.

UT Martin - Easy W.

Kentucky - We beat them at their place last year. We’re better. They’re worse. They’ll be physical, but this is a 14-17 point Vol win.

Georgia - They lost soooo much from last year. If this was at Neyland, I’d be putting money on my Vols. Heup has the team competing late, but the SEC wants a uga-Bama championship and the refs bail out the butt-sniffers with a bogus call with under 3 minutes left in the game. Every. Damn. Year. Bring your mustard bottles.

Missouri - Heup blasts the SEC officiating all week and then names his score against Mizzou. Expect 70.

South Carolina - These guys are already dead by this point in the season. Rattler has been crushed by the SEC grind and we play against a grad assistant. Expect 60.

Vanderbilt - Easy W. Students leave this game wondering how Tennessee has ever lost to this university. Expect 70.

10-2 regular season. With the SEC protecting uga and bama, my guess is they lobby for both of them to get in the playoff again (watch the one loss team win the SEC Championship like last year), so we are looking at a Sugar Bowl invite.

I know, big dreams, but I just don’t see 10 teams on our schedule matching our talent, scheme or coaching. Hooker is too good of a leader and qb and Heup is too good of an offensive genius. Our pace can’t be matched.

Vegas has the win total at 8. I think you may be a little too optimistic. I'm willing to bet UT has a losing record out of the Florida, LSU, Bama stretch

 

[BlinghamptonVol]

Would you make a bet on winning 10+ regular season games?

If so, Vegas has us only at 7.5 wins. Might as well bet every single dollar you can possibly borrow if you believe that. You're saying there's only an 8% chance of us losing fewer than 7.5 games

I know, it sounds crazy to say 10 wins. And I wouldn’t bet on 10 wins overall, but when I look at the opponents and the matchups, I sure do like the Vols in 10 games. I’d be more willing to bet on 10 separate games.

It seems a lot of posters are hung up on Florida and Pitt. I don’t think people realize how poorly Mullen recruited. Maybe they have 1 player that would get significant playing time at bama or uga. It’s not like they are just barely below the top teams talent wise.

For Pitt, I think they might be better later in the season, but like us last year, they’re still going to be figuring things out in the beginning of the year. I think this year our O is gonna be humming. Heup and Hooker do have it figured out.

 

[sjt18]

Pitt will likely be better on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

Concerning opponents - Florida has never lacked talent; we could beat them . . . But it will probably be a close game. I will believe we beat the Gators when it happens. The LSU game is at LSU.

The opponents angle works both ways I guess. Folks always see the improvements their teams make while assuming less of their opponents.

I've noticed the exact opposite tendency. No one else ever loses players of value... all of their returnees are going to be stars.

Nobody expected Heupel to have the Vols playing as they did (at times). His impact was immediate. The assumption is Napier won’t do the same . . . With talent at Florida . . .

No assumptions. You could argue UT lost some games because it was Heupel's first year... now you're arguing that shouldn't happen at UF.

South Carolina will be improved I think. LSU will be improved I think. Both are road games.

Of course. UT won't improve. You see all of UT's problems as fatal. But obviously USCe will get better though they have worse talent and depth problems than UT and WR is a major, major problem for them.

I completely agree that the Pitt game is super important (also a road game). Lose to Pitt and Florida . . . And we are looking at 7-5 tops. Split those games and 8-4 is possible. I think a 10 win or 9 win season with our depth / line issues is . . . A pipe dream. But, who knows. It’s college football.

UT is deeper and more talented than Ole Miss was last year. Obviously UT can't afford to have too many key losses... but that's true of every SEC team not named Bama or UGA.

 

[Wezcoast]

I know, it sounds crazy to say 10 wins. And I wouldn’t bet on 10 wins overall, but when I look at the opponents and the matchups, I sure do like the Vols in 10 games. I’d be more willing to bet on 10 separate games.

It seems a lot of posters are hung up on Florida and Pitt. I don’t think people realize how poorly Mullen recruited. Maybe they have 1 player that would get significant playing time at bama or uga. It’s not like they are just barely below the top teams talent wise.

For Pitt, I think they might be better later in the season, but like us last year, they’re still going to be figuring things out in the beginning of the year. I think this year our O is gonna be humming. Heup and Hooker do have it figured out.

You may be right and I hope you are. History has just taught me that there's usually a wall behind them hedges.

 

[Wezcoast]

That or incredibly good luck with hail Mary passes, freak catches, UT fumble at the goal line, etc. It's uncanny really.

We always seem to go full Kentucky against them late in the game.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Everyone is underestimating Pitt. They return the core of both lines - the lines that whipped us at the LOS all game long. If our offensive and defensive lines aren't better this year, it will be a long day up at Pitt.

Just like last year.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Seems to happen every year. Spring predictions are normal. The closer you get to 1st game W’s go up. By the first game a few wiill be onboard with undefeated. As the football excitement goes up so does the feelings of grandeur,

This is so true.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Pitt returns 8 starters on offense and 7 on defense.
The offensive line should be outstanding. All five starters are expected back with three all-stars and a few pro prospects to work around. Carter Warren at left tackle is the best of the bunch, but the entire line should jell into now one of the team’s biggest strengths. They are considered the best OL in the ACC.

The depth is there at running back. The trio of Israel Abanikanda (635), Vincent Davis (593), and Rodney Hammond (504) should again combine for well over 1,500 yards and 20 touchdowns.

They lost Pickett but picked up Slovis – a kid who threw 30 touchdown passes as a freshman at USC. His career numbers look like this: 68.4 completion percentage, 7,576 passing yards and a 58/24 TD-INT ratio.

They lost Jordon Addison but return their second best WR, Jared Wayne, who had 47 grabs for 658 yards and six TDs in 2021. Pitt hopes Akron transfer WR Konata Mumpfield can replace some of Addison’s production. As a true freshman for the Zips last season, Mumpfield hauled in 63 catches for 751 yards and eight TDs.

They should be very capable of scoring again this year but may be more inclined to run their experienced backs behind their experienced OL so they might not average in the forties. How well Slovis adjusts to the new team is the biggest question on offense.

As for the Pitt defense, the defensive line is once again going to be a terror after finishing second in the nation in sacks and fifth in tackles for loss. Second Team All-ACC end Habakkuk Baldonado led the team with nine sacks, First Team All-ACC tackle Calijah Kancey was second on the team with seven sacks – those two combined for 25 tackles for loss – and everyone else up front feed off them. They picked up a transfer LB from Notre Dame – a kid who started 7 games over his first two years at ND. Their front 7 is solid - where they gave up points/yards last year was thru the air as they were weak at corner. That's the main question mark for their D.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Which 4?

LSU, UF, Bama and UGA

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

I'll start with the people who have millions upon millions of dollars on the line regarding our win total; Vegas.

We are @ o/u7.5 on wins. But it's not a 50/50 chance for 7 or 8. We must consider the odds for each.

Under 7.5 is @ +145 with the over at -170. That means if you bet $100 on the under, you will win $145, conversely, you must bet $170 on the over to win back $100.

It also means that the odds slightly favor Tennessee winning at least 8 games with a probability of about 62%. The probability that UT wins less than 8 games is about 41%

The odds for Tennessee to win 10+ games is set at +450, which means placing a $100 wager would win you $450. Those odds do not indicate a 10+ win season is extremely unlikely, but they do think it will most likely not happen. Which, in probability speak, they believe there is about an 18% chance Tennessee will win 10+ games or around an 82% chance Tennessee wil not reach 10 wins.

If I were betting on the season win total, I would select 8 as most likely. Since I can't find the odds for o/u 8.5, 9.5, 6.5, etc, I believe the next most likely is a toss-up between 9 and 7, then 6, followed by 10. So it is probably more likely that we win 6 games instead of 10.

Seriously though, my personal high win total, if everything goes perfectly, would be 11 or 12. I do believe we have the scheme and players to reach 11 or 12 wins, but only if everything is perfect and the breaks go our way in every game. I would set the absolute low @ 6, with breaks going against us, injuries, etc. I believe we will be somewhere in the middle and win 9-10 games.

However, none of this really matters, since we're going 15-0.

Vegas odds aren't really predictions though, they are just trying to balance the bets so that the house profits simply by collecting the juice no matter what happens. They know CFB fans generally and UT fans in particular are never short on pre-season confidence. Hopefully this guy is putting his money to better use this year by donating it to Spyre or something:

How one Tennessee football bettor lost $220K on Vols' season opener

 

[Volfan1000]

I know, orange tinted glasses, but with our offense rolling into its second season with Heup and a defense improving with some really proven position coaches, I expect some good things from this team. 10-2 seems like a big jump from 2020, but then I looked at the schedule a little bit more....

Ball St- Easy W. And we play them on a Thursday night so we have more time to prepare for....

Pitt - They lost too much off last year’s team. If Hooker had been the starter from the get go last year, we beat them by 2 tds. Heup with 2 extra days to prepare? Forget about it.

Akron - Easy W.

Florida - Easy W.

Seriously though , they are in too much turmoil and lack talent on the lines and at WR. Didn’t they just lose a WR to injury? Better luck next year losers gators.

Bye - A little early, but good for a break before LSU and bama. Heup can cook up some plays.

LSU - Also a team with a lot of recent turmoil. Brian Kelly is just Butch Jones, Sr. and been able to hide that with Notre Dame’s weak schedule.

Bama - This one is going to be tough. Saban has a renewed drive after losing to Jumbo and Kirby last year. Look for us to play them close however. If they hadn’t gotten the Georgia WR, I’d say this could be an upset special.

UT Martin - Easy W.

Kentucky - We beat them at their place last year. We’re better. They’re worse. They’ll be physical, but this is a 14-17 point Vol win.

Georgia - They lost soooo much from last year. If this was at Neyland, I’d be putting money on my Vols. Heup has the team competing late, but the SEC wants a uga-Bama championship and the refs bail out the butt-sniffers with a bogus call with under 3 minutes left in the game. Every. Damn. Year. Bring your mustard bottles.

Missouri - Heup blasts the SEC officiating all week and then names his score against Mizzou. Expect 70.

South Carolina - These guys are already dead by this point in the season. Rattler has been crushed by the SEC grind and we play against a grad assistant. Expect 60.

Vanderbilt - Easy W. Students leave this game wondering how Tennessee has ever lost to this university. Expect 70.

10-2 regular season. With the SEC protecting uga and bama, my guess is they lobby for both of them to get in the playoff again (watch the one loss team win the SEC Championship like last year), so we are looking at a Sugar Bowl invite.

I know, big dreams, but I just don’t see 10 teams on our schedule matching our talent, scheme or coaching. Hooker is too good of a leader and qb and Heup is too good of an offensive genius. Our pace can’t be matched.

Pittsburgh is a very tough game because it is a road game and anything can happen in the first road game of the season so that is a swing game and you are looking at 9-3 or 10-2 depending on how that game shapes up.

 

[govols105]

7-6 with a bowl win injuries will cost us and derail us once again bvs is real.

 

[kcvols1]

If we lose to Pitt this year we have some serious problems. Pitt should be an easy win.

Please, please slow your roll.

 

[kcvols1]

View attachment 479908

You can’t triple stamp a double stamp, Lloyd.