(1) Spurs vs (8) Jazz

#26
#26
#27
#27
Eh, I figure that NBA scouts tend to be extremely good at their job. Rarely does a guy fall to the second round or undrafted and wind up being a very good player.
 
#28
#28
milohimself said:
Eh, I figure that NBA scouts tend to be extremely good at their job. Rarely does a guy fall to the second round or undrafted and wind up being a very good player.
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I think you were doing this on purpose, but be prepared to be google blasted with every second round pick of all time.
 
#29
#29
TBrown said:
I think you were doing this on purpose, but be prepared to be google blasted with every second round pick of all time.
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For actual impact guys, though? There's usually a guy or two who slip down to the 2nd who wind up being starting quality, but somewhere between a third and a half of second round picks wind up never seeing the floor of an NBA game.
 
#30
#30
milohimself said:
For actual impact guys, though? There's usually a guy or two who slip down to the 2nd who wind up being starting quality, but somewhere between a third and a half of second round picks wind up never seeing the floor of an NBA game.
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Oh no..I completely agree with you. Just be prepared for the google blast. You've underestimated useless stat guy.
 
#31
#31
I don't think Baker will disagree much. Basketball players tend to pan out much closer to their draft value than do football players. Late gems are pretty rare.
 
#32
#32
milohimself said:
I don't think Baker will disagree much. Basketball players tend to pan out much closer to their draft value than do football players. Late gems are pretty rare.
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Generally but we saw a couple this series that are pretty good. Milsap, Ginoboli and Blair are nice players that were taken in the 2nd round.
 
#34
#34
TBrown said:
Blair dropped cause he doesn't have ACLs and was viewed as a health risk though, right?
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I think so. Plus he's short for a big.

When I think of 2nd round players, I always think of Monta Ellis. Most of the meaningful players go in the first round but it's good to see a few 2nd round players contributing in the same series.
 
#35
#35
milohimself said:
Eh, I figure that NBA scouts tend to be extremely good at their job. Rarely does a guy fall to the second round or undrafted and wind up being a very good player.
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Really?

If you are a lottery pick, you are going to get chances until you prove without a shadow of a doubt that you suck. And even then you probably get more playing time.

If you are undrafted, you have almost no opportunity to play. So if the lottery picks get all the minutes, and the undrafted rarely play, of course we are going to see a disproportionate number of stars come from lottery picks.

If there are good players who never got a chance, how do we know scouts are good at what they do? Seen vs unseen.
 
#36
#36
That's why they have the D-league.

There are Manu Ginobilis that fall to the second round, and Jeremy Lins who have to scratch and claw their way up to prove themselves.

On the flip side, with high-pick busts, as much money as they have to put into those contracts, it makes sense for teams to give those guys as much time as possible to prove themselves. It's a crappy deal, but that's how the dynamic works once you introduce contracts.

Still, compared to other sports, the NBA draft shakes out truer. The vast majority of quality players were lottery picks, and a good chunk of second round guys don't cut it.

My point re: Utah is that there really don't seem to be many, if any, quality point guards in the draft this year. What they have is a glut of value at the 4/5, some of which they could part with and pick up a quality point guard.
 
#37
#37
milohimself said:
That's why they have the D-league.

There are Manu Ginobilis that fall to the second round, and Jeremy Lins who have to scratch and claw their way up to prove themselves.

On the flip side, with high-pick busts, as much money as they have to put into those contracts, it makes sense for teams to give those guys as much time as possible to prove themselves. It's a crappy deal, but that's how the dynamic works once you introduce contracts.

Still, compared to other sports, the NBA draft shakes out truer. The vast majority of quality players were lottery picks, and a good chunk of second round guys don't cut it.

My point re: Utah is that there really don't seem to be many, if any, quality point guards in the draft this year. What they have is a glut of value at the 4/5, some of which they could part with and pick up a quality point guard.
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Jeremy Lin was lucky as hell to get a shot. It had nothing to do with proving himself in practice, and in the D-league. He had to get serious NBA minutes before his organization (his third organization) realized his potential.
 
#38
#38
This is what I'm talking about when I say scouts don't know jack. I randomly selected the 2006 draft, and gave each member of the first round a letter grade based on what they did in 2011. If they were in the top 90th percentile in wins producted, I'd give them an A- grade, etc.

Players with a B- or better are highlighted in orange. Players with an F, or no longer in league are in red. I counted Roy as an A, because he would have been an A without the injury. Not included is Paul Millsap (B+) from the 2nd round.

So there were 8 quality players in this draft, and the "experts" only managed to pick 3 of them in the first 12 picks. The player picked #1 overall was the worst player in the NBA in 2011. There are 8 major, major failures in those first 12 picks. Possibly the 3 best players were taken outside of the top 20.

2006.png
 
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#40
#40
milohimself said:
And the 2nd round?
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What about it? I mentioned Millsap was in the second round. I'm not arguing there is more talent in the 2nd round, I'm arguing that teams are horrible at scouting talent. Like I already mentioned, most guys in 2nd round never get much of a chance at NBA minutes.

Since it's only one year, let's look at 2007. 10 players drafted had quality 2011 seasons, and 5 of them came after pick 20. 2nd rounders not included in graphic: Josh McRoberts (B-), Marc Gasol (B), and Ramon Sessions (B).

2007.png
 
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