Recent content by checkerboard03

Tl;dr - people calling Butch a coward are right. "Most coaches either punt or attempt a field goal, if they’re in range. Rarely ever do they go for it on fourth down. But the NYT 4th Down Bot says that’s a mistake. The bot “uses thousands of N.F.L. plays since 2000 to calculate the average...

Sure. Sagarin is telling us how much he expects TN to lose by (compare RATING, adjust for home field). If he's right, well, then he's right and there's no need to adjust much. Like I said before, other team's performance (UF, UGA, etc) will matter a bit, too. Sagrin is ranked 11 out of 70 or...

Worth noting that Sagarin's site has several different indexes. Although he says to compare RATING, it's not clear why given that he also suggests PREDICTOR is the best predictor of future games. And we're 2 spots higher in PREDICTOR! So I'm all for using that one. In response to some other...

Perspective from computer rankings, for those who like that: Sagarin would favor us in all of our final 4 games, for a 7-5 record. Massey would favor us against UK, Vandy and make us an underdog against USCe, with Mizzou basically a toss-up, for 5-7 or 6-6. Interestingly, Sagarin has us...

According to ESPN Iowa's SOS is 44 and ours is 11. Mainly because of non-conference. Iowa non-conference SOS 184, Tennessee 41.

So one other thing that I probably should have mentioned. The r2 on the graph shows how much variation in the response (final score) the predictor (ln massey rating) explains. Anyone who thinks this is obvious should go try to find one other single factor that can explain 90% of that variation...

Yes, TN does better against weak opponents. But it's not linear. It's really skewed towards struggling against the best teams. Maybe everybody already knew that, but if they did I think we would've expected to get smoked by Mizzou and hopefully wouldn't have seen a huge meltdown.

Thanks. I agree with what you're saying, I guess my point is that the break between the "big boys" and "weaker opponents" may be higher than a lot of people around here think. The breaking point may be around 25 or 30 instead of 40 or 45.

solid gold. that's what keeps me coming back!

Tl;dr version 1) TN will probably lose to Auburn, but beat Vandy and UK and be bowl eligible. Yeah, lots of people could tell you that, but... 2) Computer rankings will tell you UT is 40th or so. I'd argue that TN is actually closer to 25 or 30, but for one reason or another simply can't...

TL:DR One of the better computer ratings has us, but not Vanderbilt, making a bowl. But it's very close for both teams. Massey computer ratings have us getting into a bowl, but barely. Massey Ratings - University of Tennessee Volunteers South Carolina (54% L) 28-30 @Alabama (98% L) 10-38...

Nope. Booing teenage, amateur athletes is pretty lame. Especially when they're doing something dangerous for your entertainment. (I know 5% of them will be rich professionals some day. Then, they'll be fair game.) Coaches are fair game, too. I think you can sometimes be clear that you're...

Amen on most of this. But a few things - The goal is to be a top 25 public school, which is probably not going to happen. Being a top 25 school overall is essentially impossible and would be a nonsensical goal for UT. Anyways, UT has climbed from 52 to 46 in the last 3 year, if I'm...

I've enjoyed most of this thread. I think that UT should use the same standards for student athletes as the rest of the SEC. I think it would be very hard to make a pragmatic case for how these higher standards benefit the university in the long term. That being said, everyone should want UT...

There's nothing in this statement that contradicts itself. As a larger point, I work at UTK and you're crazy if you think all the professors dislike football, or try to penalize football players. In fact, some of them are rabid fans with season tickets. This next point is just a feeling, so...