Recent content by BigOrangeMojo

I get it if they move to Seattle. Id hate it but it makes $$$$ sense.... The State of TN providing several hundred million to move the team from one part of the state to another is a bridge too far.....

The October jobs report (Released 11/1/24) was bad with a 12K increase. In addition, August and Sept jobs were revised down. The November report (after the election) revised both the Sept and October jobs up. The December report (after the election) revised October jobs up again. Even the...

Absolutely. It's part of it. But there's as much stuff on the other side that's screaming no change. If someone says we need to ease by 25 basis points, then sure, it's reasonable. But those wanting to ease by 200-300 basis points arent living in reality...

I dont hate Truflation. Personally, I think it overweighs housing and especially overweighs it when you use the number as a proxy on impact of tarrifs. Core Truflation CPI without housing was 2.95%. The exact number isnt as important as the trend....

I expect 3.1 for core. Just enough to keep it under Biden....

The GDP, OBBBA inflationary fiscal policies, wage growth, uncertainty,and core CPI near 3 all supports no decrease in interest rate. The jobs number by itself does support some easing but there are a lot of factors that dont support it...

One point to call put. July 25 hasnt been released yet. It wont be for another 10 days. You are pulling July 2024 where core was 3.2. June 2025 had a core of 2.9. I suspect July will have a core near 3.2 though

BLS October 2024 (Released right before election) dropped a super low job number, revised down August and September. The super low October 2024 number was subsequently revised upward in both months after the election. The Sept 2024 number was revised down too much in October as it was somewhat...

https://champsorchumps.us/team/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/comebacks The Dodgers have never had a 9 run comeback in their history...

The July BLS and ADP reports are largely in line with each other. The ADP report is slightly more bullish but negligible once you factor in seasonality... The May and June BLS revisions put it right in line with the ADP reports from those months. The initial govt job reports was more favorable...

It was the Pop Tarts Bowl. It was a meaningless exhibition....

I have no doubt there's some smoothing that you see for political reasons. Both sides do it. Just learn to compare a govt source to a private source and form opinions from that....

It's important to conpare trends you see with BLS and ADP reports. If they paint the same picture, then yeah, the results/survey is highly accurate. If they paint different pictures, then something is off... It's the same thing with CPI. I've pointed out several times to compare what large...

The initial numbers are based on surveys of 100,000+ and those numbers are extrapolated out. Revisions occur with further surveys, payroll data from census data, and atate/federal unemployment/payroll tax reports. It is not intended to be an "exact" number for more to show trends....

I'm skeptical the Secret Service will incur significant costs to make this addition secure....