Utah State opens as early Vegas favorite @Tennessee

[ag4fr]

I would also venture to guess that the Neyland atmosphere might be different than Auburn's because of the fan base mentality in each situation.
You have Auburn's coming off of a NC probably looking at the game much like we would the AP game. Easy win against a nobody.
Then you have a packed Neyland starving for success and rabid to see the hyped up new recruits do their thing against a team that has shown some success the past couple of years.
Compare the two all you like but Neyland will be a different animal I promise.

Fair enough. Lookin forward to it...

 

[Orange_Crush]

Time will tell I guess. I got all kinds of time. I'll be right in the end. I usually am. This isnt rocket science. If Tennessee wins 8 games I will shake your hand and congratulate you. But you're like the guy that says UT will go undefeated every year and then one year when they do, you say "I told you so". It's far more meaningful to predict that your team will be mediocre at best and then be right (which I will be). It shows that you know what you're seeing and are not just being a jerk picking on people who have made an honest assessment of the team.

something monumentally bad would have to happen to many of our opponents for us to reach 8 wins. Tennessee just wont have the horses to beat all those teams straight up....... YET.

Have a good day.

Go re-read my posts. I posted I foresee the possibility of 8 wins, but predict six. What I did not say is that "UT will absolutely, positively not win 8 games, period. But I'm not a crystal-baller."

You're too funny dude.

 

[AboveAllNations]

Time will tell I guess. I got all kinds of time. I'll be right in the end. I usually am. This isnt rocket science. If Tennessee wins 8 games I will shake your hand and congratulate you. But you're like the guy that says UT will go undefeated every year and then one year when they do, you say "I told you so". It's far more meaningful to predict that your team will be mediocre at best and then be right (which I will be). It shows that you know what you're seeing and are not just being a jerk picking on people who have made an honest assessment of the team.

something monumentally bad would have to happen to many of our opponents for us to reach 8 wins. Tennessee just wont have the horses to beat all those teams straight up....... YET.

Have a good day.

We will beat Utah State, Arkansas State, Chattanooga, Kentucky and Vanderbilt easily. We will almost certainly lose to Alabama and Oklahoma. That puts us at 5-2 with the following plausible toss-ups:

- away at Georgia
- home versus Florida
- away at Ole Miss
- away at South Carolina
- home versus Missouri

Winning three of those five games would get us to 8 wins, and a lot of those teams have lost a lot of talent since last year. I would be shocked if we finished below 7-5.

 

[thebjd]

We will beat Utah State, Arkansas State, Chattanooga, Kentucky and Vanderbilt easily. We will almost certainly lose to Alabama and Oklahoma. That puts us at 5-2 with the following plausible toss-ups:

- away at Georgia
- home versus Florida
- away at Ole Miss
- away at South Carolina
- home versus Missouri

Winning three of those five games would get us to 8 wins, and a lot of those teams have lost a lot of talent since last year. I would be shocked if we finished below 7-5.

We will most likely be significant underdogs in all five of those games. Florida is the key to the season in my opinion. We need to beat one of the three major rivals in the east this year and UF seems to be our best bet.

 

[KBVol]

We will most likely be significant underdogs in all five of those games. Florida is the key to the season in my opinion. We need to beat one of the three major rivals in the east this year and UF seems to be our best bet.

If that's the case we're in big trouble. UT just never beats Florida.

 

[thebjd]

If that's the case we're in big trouble. UT just never beats Florida.

Ole Miss is probably the actual path to a bowl game but I want the UF win badly.

 

[KBVol]

Ole Miss is probably the actual path to a bowl game but I want the UF win badly.

I think several teams are beatable given the QB turnover in the league. I think last year showed that we matchup well with both SCar and Georgia.... I think both games will be winnable even they're on the road. I think the Missouri game is winnable at home.

Ole Miss game scares me a little bit (did I just type that? Damn, how far we have fallen) due to their senior QB and that recruiting class from last being in their program for a second year.

I just can't predict that we're gonna beat Florida and we all know the Bama game is a loss. Oklahoma is obviously a loss.

Other wins are USU, Arky St, Chattanooga, Vandy and Ky IMO.

 

[sjt18]

It really isn't that hard. Jones had six years in lower conferences and showed more success than Wells has shown in one year at a lower conference. But you say Wells is more proven. That is illogical.

He had six what? Years?

Wells has had more success in his first year in his CURRENT job than Jones had in his CURRENT job. Resumes get you a job. Past performance is probably the best tool we have for predicting future success... but it does not guarantee it.

Another thing I did not mention is that it took Jones 7 years to get his first win against a ranked opponent. Wells got one in his first year.

To judge Jones' first year against the brutality of last years' schedule as "less proven" than Wells, when Wells hasn't performed on that stage... Is illogical.

No. It isn't a perfect apples to apples comparison but Wells did not have a "more" talented team relative to his schedule than Jones did relative to his. I would say depth was not as much of a factor for him but the talent gap between USU and USC was wider than anything UT faced last fall. USU almost beat them.

And the whining about how difficult last year's schedule was is really, really getting out of hand. UT ALWAYS plays a tough schedule. UT played 5 teams this fall that ended up in the AP final top 25.... they played 5 in '12... six in '11... five in '10...

Honestly that is one thing that really did bother me about Jones... the hyperbole about the "toughest" schedule in the history of college football. He made it sound good... but it is still whining and especially when you recognize that it isn't atypical for UT. If that's a valid excuse then he will ALWAYS have a valid excuse for losing and getting blown out at UT.

I mean Dooley faced 4 of the 6 NC contenders in his 3 years at UT. UT has faced 5 of the last 8. Tough schedules are just reality.

Put another way... To say that Wells is more proven by not getting the opportunity to compete at that level, well... To be honest... It's asinine.

So if you disagree or alternately just choose to ignore the very obvious and specific point being made... it must be "asinine"? Sorry. No.

 

[sjt18]

The only two teams that UT faces this fall that are near certain losses are OU and Bama. I think 4-7 wins is the most reasonable range but we tend to focus only on UT's problems when discussing an upcoming season. All the teams in the East have question marks. Ole Miss has talent but they have not turned the corner yet. UT should win its other 3 OOC games.

Likelihoods and possibilities aren't the same. It is likely IMO that UT gets six wins. It is possible within some measure of reason for them to get 10 if the stars align just right. Sort of like they did for Mizzou last fall.

 

[sjt18]

I think several teams are beatable given the QB turnover in the league. I think last year showed that we matchup well with both SCar and Georgia.... I think both games will be winnable even they're on the road. I think the Missouri game is winnable at home.

Ole Miss game scares me a little bit (did I just type that? Damn, how far we have fallen) due to their senior QB and that recruiting class from last being in their program for a second year.

I just can't predict that we're gonna beat Florida and we all know the Bama game is a loss. Oklahoma is obviously a loss.

Other wins are USU, Arky St, Chattanooga, Vandy and Ky IMO.

Great post. I also think Ole Miss could be better than many think now.

 

[BruiserVol]

What does Georgia have this year? Their D was their weakness and they relied on Murray. He is gone this year along with a lot of other weapons. We had them beat last year with him.

 

[thebjd]

The only two teams that UT faces this fall that are near certain losses are OU and Bama. I think 4-7 wins is the most reasonable range but we tend to focus only on UT's problems when discussing an upcoming season. All the teams in the East have question marks. Ole Miss has talent but they have not turned the corner yet. UT should win its other 3 OOC games.

Likelihoods and possibilities aren't the same. It is likely IMO that UT gets six wins. It is possible within some measure of reason for them to get 10 if the stars align just right. Sort of like they did for Mizzou last fall.

Six wins is about right. Mizzoo will be better offensively and worse defensively imo. Ole Miss should see some fruit from the class they signed last year and have a solid senior QB. UF is very talented but who knows where they will be. UGA and USCe should be the class of the East. Last year I predicted six wins but the Vandy crash killed it. I also figured USCe would be a loss and never predicted Mizzoo and Auburn gaining ground like they did. In the preseason I thought our 6th win would be beating Missouri but knew Auburn was very talented. We may find a special freshman that makes a huge difference. It happens and we have over 30 good ones.

 

[thebjd]

What does Georgia have this year? Their D was their weakness and they relied on Murray. He is gone this year along with a lot of other weapons. We had them beat last year with him.

They have who I think is the best player in college football at tailback.

 

[BruiserVol]

They have who I think is the best player in college football at tailback.

Fair enough. I just think they're less scary this year than they were last year. We'll see.

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

Peterman was UT's only 4* on Rivals as far as I know. 247 is coming into its own. ESPN and Scout are pretty unreliable.

IIRC, Peterman was rated the top QB in FL his Sr year.

None of that means anything except that Rivals liked him... but they are one of two reliable voices in recruiting and the only reliable voice that has a real track record.

So Peterman is our only 4 star because the scouting service you like the most said so?

The 247 composite is the most useful tool when saying what "star rating" a kid has because it takes the consensus of all the big recruiting services.

All of them have their strengths and weaknesses, but ranking them is pretty subjective. Using the one you think is the best to make a point about the ranking of our QBs is somewhat disingenuous.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

What does Georgia have this year? Their D was their weakness and they relied on Murray. He is gone this year along with a lot of other weapons. We had them beat last year with him.

Their weak spot on defense was Grantham and he is gone. I think UGAs D is going to be significantly better. Their offense is not going to be as good. Yes they still have Gurley, Marshall and Mitchell but lose Murray. He will be very hard to replace.

 

[sjt18]

Six wins is about right. Mizzoo will be better offensively and worse defensively imo.

They lost Josey, Franklin, and 2 of their top 3 WR's plus their best OL. I honestly think Mizzou has the biggest drop off in the SEC next fall. They do not have ready replacements for what they lost.

Ole Miss should see some fruit from the class they signed last year and have a solid senior QB. UF is very talented but who knows where they will be. UGA and USCe should be the class of the East.

Honest question. If Spurrier retired unexpectedly do you really see the kind of talent on that team that should contend for the SECE? I don't. I honestly think they are very beatable even with Spurrier.

We may find a special freshman that makes a huge difference. It happens and we have over 30 good ones.

I am not a big believer in impact Freshmen... but am almost certain that one or more of "these" Freshmen will be major contributors.

 

[sjt18]

So Peterman is our only 4 star because the scouting service you like the most said so?

Are you attempting to claim that ESPN or Scout have anywhere near as much credibility as Rivals and 247?

The 247 composite is the most useful tool when saying what "star rating" a kid has because it takes the consensus of all the big recruiting services.

Maybe. But if ESPN and Scout think highly of a player while Rivals and 247 do not... then that is skewed too.

All of them have their strengths and weaknesses, but ranking them is pretty subjective. Using the one you think is the best to make a point about the ranking of our QBs is somewhat disingenuous.

No. Some political polling companies have proven over time to be better. Some weather forecasters prove over time that they are better. Some stock analysts are better and prove it over time. There is nothing at all disingenuous to recognizing that 247 and Rivals do a better job of evaluating recruits than Scout and ESPN.

I could be wrong and you are welcome to dispute that... but there is absolutely NOTHING "disingenuous" about giving more respect to a service with a longer history of accurately evaluating players. Scout has frequently been way out in left field on players.

IIRC, Rivals and 247 both dedicate more people and resources to their evaluation process. Unless something has changed, ESPN does very little film review or first hand observations outside of camps and All Star games.

 

[sjt18]

Reminder, I am on record saying that ALL 4 of these QB's have the talent to be above average players.

 

[sjt18]

Their weak spot on defense was Grantham and he is gone. I think UGAs D is going to be significantly better. Their offense is not going to be as good. Yes they still have Gurley, Marshall and Mitchell but lose Murray. He will be very hard to replace.

I think it may be more than Grantham. They have underperformed their talent on D for a very long time.

If you replace as many assistants and coordinators as they have replaced and are still not getting the most out of your players... shouldn't you take a long look at the HC? I mean they've had a couple of house cleanings over the past few years plus some notable hirings/firings.

 

[sjt18]

What does Georgia have this year?

More talent on both sides of the ball than any other team in the East. Their issues are primarily discipline and coaching. They were also hit with an unusual number of injuries on O last year.

IF the new DC gets the most out of their D talent and they find a QB then they will be difficult. They'll still trip up along the way because that's the Richt factor... but they'll be very talented.

 

[thebjd]

They lost Josey, Franklin, and 2 of their top 3 WR's plus their best OL. I honestly think Mizzou has the biggest drop off in the SEC next fall. They do not have ready replacements for what they lost.

I actually like Maty better than Franklin and DGB will be hard to cover.

Honest question. If Spurrier retired unexpectedly do you really see the kind of talent on that team that should contend for the SECE? I don't. I honestly think they are very beatable even with Spurrier

.

Spurrier is not retiring and I think he is the best coach in the business. On the road in a revenge game. I do not like it.

I am not a big believer in impact Freshmen... but am almost certain that one or more of "these" Freshmen will be major contributors.

I am not either but when there are 30 plus and 14 early enrollees the odds increase. Impact freshmen are usually at the running back position so I am hoping we find one there.

 

[Orange_Crush]

Wells has had more success in his first year in his CURRENT job than Jones had in his CURRENT job. Resumes get you a job. Past performance is probably the best tool we have for predicting future success... but it does not guarantee it.

Let's see a conference championship or two and then we'll talk.

Another thing I did not mention is that it took Jones 7 years to get his first win against a ranked opponent. Wells got one in his first year.

Super. One year with a little lightning in the old bottle trumps multiple years of success and multiple conference championships. CBJ got a top-5 win last season and you still crucify him. You're a hypocrite.

No. It isn't a perfect apples to apples comparison but Wells did not have a "more" talented team relative to his schedule than Jones did relative to his. I would say depth was not as much of a factor for him but the talent gap between USU and USC was wider than anything UT faced last fall.

No. It's not. At least you admit the bare minimum to return to the land of the rational.

USU almost beat them.

I like that you praise moral victories when it comes to other teams' coaches, but not UT's. Butch almost beat UGA last year. Not many here were cheering him for it.

For the record, I'm calling you a hypocrite again.

And the whining about how difficult last year's schedule was is really, really getting out of hand. UT ALWAYS plays a tough schedule. UT played 5 teams this fall that ended up in the AP final top 25.... they played 5 in '12... six in '11... five in '10...

I wasn't whining about the schedule. I was pointing out that your "current" year comparison is as asinine as many other of your points. To take a one year sample that is apples/oranges, and proclaim a, first year MWC coach as "more proven"? Ridiculous.

Honestly that is one thing that really did bother me about Jones... the hyperbole about the "toughest" schedule in the history of college football. He made it sound good... but it is still whining and especially when you recognize that it isn't atypical for UT.

No it is not atypical for UT and Butch is yet to prove he's up to the grind. That still doesn't change the fact that USU's schedule last year isn't comparable, nor that their unproven coach hasn't proven he could do any better. Please try to follow the argument. The argument is not: "Butch Jones is a guaranteed winner at UT." The argument is: "Butch Jones' body of work is more proven than Wells'. And it is.

If that's a valid excuse then he will ALWAYS have a valid excuse for losing and getting blown out at UT.

Yah. But Wells gets all the hype for 'almost' beating a USC team that sucked so bad they got their coach canned in the airport. Hypocrite.

Or, does the fact that he doesn't play good teams very often make him "more proven"?

I mean Dooley faced 4 of the 6 NC contenders in his 3 years at UT. UT has faced 5 of the last 8. Tough schedules are just reality.

They are. Butch is yet to prove the man for the job. Wells has not gotten the opportunity to prove himself. He's had one good year in a pansy conference-- little more.

Your assertion is that a guy who was a MWC assistant coach before last year is "more proven" than a multiple conference championship coach. Seriously...

For the record... It's just plain asinine.

 

[sjt18]

I actually like Maty better than Franklin and DGB will be hard to cover.

But losing the other guys will allow more focus on DGB. They don't out-athlete opponents so I think it will help that the Fr will be pretty seasoned by that point and provide some extra athleticism for MU to try to beat.

Spurrier is not retiring and I think he is the best coach in the business. On the road in a revenge game. I do not like it.

My point was that they are not good because they are overwhelmingly talented. My hope is that Jones outcoaches the Ol' Ball Coach... again.

I am not either but when there are 30 plus and 14 early enrollees the odds increase. Impact freshmen are usually at the running back position so I am hoping we find one there.

I was probably more reserved than most about the possibilities of immediate help but am becoming more hopeful with some of the S&C reports. Even just a kid like E Moseley who can give you some solid reps as a back up could be HUGE when trying to save the legs of Coleman and Sutton. The JUCO help looks very good too.

 

[sjt18]

Let's see a conference championship or two and then we'll talk.



Super. One year with a little lightning in the old bottle trumps multiple years of success and multiple conference championships. CBJ got a top-5 win last season and you still crucify him. You're a hypocrite.

I have not crucified him. That's hyperbole... being generous. And I have to wonder if you know what a hypocrite is based on how you used the word in this response.

I like that you praise moral victories when it comes to other teams' coaches, but not UT's. Butch almost beat UGA last year. Not many here were cheering him for it.

I can't expect you to remember everything I have said or every position I have taken but even when criticizing the guy I have given him HUGE credit for the UGA game. He and his staff did an excellent job.

I wasn't whining about the schedule. I was pointing out that your "current" year comparison is as asinine as many other of your points. To take a one year sample that is apples/oranges, and proclaim a, first year MWC coach as "more proven"? Ridiculous.

No. What is ridiculous is how dense you are being over a very, very simple point. Wells had more success in his one season at USU than Jones had in his one season at UT. He won more games. He played more competitively against superior teams. He also got a victory over a top 25 opponent.

No it is not atypical for UT and Butch is yet to prove he's up to the grind. That still doesn't change the fact that USU's schedule last year isn't comparable, nor that their unproven coach hasn't proven he could do any better.

Never claimed either of those things so I agree with you.

Please try to follow the argument. The argument is not: "Butch Jones is a guaranteed winner at UT." The argument is: "Butch Jones' body of work is more proven than Wells'. And it is.

Yes. Overall. He has not proven he can win in his current job. Wells has.

Or, does the fact that he doesn't play good teams very often make him "more proven"?

That is kind of relative, isn't it? Wells coached a MWC roster against a tougher than avg MWC schedule. He made a bowl, beat a ranked team, and scared the life out of two Pac 10 teams. I am unsure why you are trying to deny that is a better start than Jones got at UT last year.

Your assertion is that a guy who was a MWC assistant coach before last year is "more proven" than a multiple conference championship coach. Seriously...

For the record... It's just plain asinine.

You'd be right... if I had ever asserted that.

This is an appropriate place to say your statement above is very hypocritical.