Time Machine: What If Brian Kelly Accepted UT HC Position

#51
#51
As much as the media fawning over ND disgusts me, and how much I generally just don't like ND, part of me wants to be able to take them seriously again.
 
#53
#53
Ernest Volmingway said:
TN would beat Notre Dame this year. I'm not impressed one bit with ND or Kelly. Any number of SEC teams would steamroll ND, don't buy into the horrible bias towards them.
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Totally agree with that. ND is being way overhyped. They are beating a bunch of Big 10 teams and nothing more. I agree Tennessee would have the same record as ND if they played the schedule they have played up to this point.
 
#54
#54
Eastknox865 said:
You must be a very immature young adult who has yet to deal with death of close loved ones. Grow up just a little
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coach sends kid up on scissor lift to video PRACTICE in high MPH winds. kid falls to death while videoing.

now, WHO is immature? not really sure what in the hell you are implying.
 
#55
#55
Montrell Hardy said:
Totally agree with that. ND is being way overhyped. They are beating a bunch of Big 10 teams and nothing more. I agree Tennessee would have the same record as ND if they played the schedule they have played up to this point.
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The only difference between this year and years past is that the teams they have played thus far are even worse than them. That whole region of the country is absurdly overhyped w/ ND, Mich, Mich St, Ohio St and Nebraska. I think if TN played those 4 teams we would go 5-0 or 4-1. I just don't understand why the media is in love with these teams, have the last 6 years not taught them anything?
 
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#56
#56
Ernest Volmingway said:
The only difference between this year and years past is that the teams they have played thus far are even worse than them. That whole region of the country is absurdly overhyped w/ ND, Mich, Mich St, Ohio St and Nebraska. I think if TN played those 4 teams we would go 5-0 or 4-1. I just don't understand why the media is in love with these teams, have the last 6 years not taught them anything?
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I could not have said that better. The Big 10 is a pathetic conference to be perfectly honest. The media's love affair stems from the fact that so many of them are Big 10 alumni and they can't objectively look at how bad football in that region has become. Just look at ESPN, ABC, Fox, etc... there are OSU grads/homers all over the place.
 
#58
#58
Since leaving GVS, he is 73-32. I think we would be in a much better position. He is a winner. A winning coach produces winning players. ND is a popular school, but top recruits seem to be more and more inclined to go to the SEC. Kelly would get top 10 classes here, because he would already be putting a better product on the field.
 
#59
#59
OuterBanksVol said:
After Kiffen bolted, word was that Brian Kelly (at Cincinnati at the time) was among a number of coaches that politely told the UT athletic dept 'No thank you' to our HC position offer. Of course, Mr. Kelly went on to accept the Notre Dame position, while DD eventually accepted the UT position.

The first upcoming BCS poll comes out this weekend, and the *computer* rankings have the 5-0 Irish as #1. Meanwhile, we Vols are slightly above mediocreville having cracked the top 25 for the first time in years, and now sit at 3-2.

So, would it have made a difference had Kelly come to UT? I offer the following based on 2 factors only: recruiting and win/loss record.

Interestingly, Notre Dame's recruiting record is nearly identical to the Vols over the past 3 years, per Rivals:

2010
Notre Dame #14
UT #9

2011
Notre Dame #10
UT #13

2012
Notre Dame #20
UT #17

Average 3-year recruiting rank:
Notre Dame 14.6
UT 13.0

So, based solely on recruiting records, both teams are building top-20 teams.

The actual team records, though, seem to tell a very different story:

2010
Notre Dame 8-5
UT 6-7

2011
Notre Dame 8-5
UT 5-7

2012
Notre Dame 5-0
UT 3-2

Total 3-year record:
Notre Dame 21-10
UT 14-16

Obviously, ND looks far better on paper. But, would Kelly have posted a better record than DD had he come to UT? The quality of Notre Dame's opponents raises questions about the strength of their team v. UT, as follows:

2010
Notre Dame (played 2 ranked opponents - no top 10)
UT (played 5 ranked opponents - 3 top 10)

2011
Notre Dame 8-5 (played 2 ranked opponents - no top 10)
UT 5-7 (played 6 ranked opponents - 3 top 10)

2012
Notre Dame 5-0 (played 2 ranked opponents - 1 top 10)
UT 3-2 (played 2 ranked opponents - 1 top 10)

Total # of 3-year ranked opponents:
Notre Dame (6 ranked opponents - 1 top 10)
UT (13 ranked opponents - 7 top 10)

Until this year, the Irish have clearly had cupcake schedules, while the Vols have played in the toughest conference in the nation.

So my take on what effect Brian Kelly would have had on UT had he elected to be our HC is as follows: While the jury is still out on both he and DD, neither Kelly's recruiting record nor his win record suggest that he would have had more success than DD if he were in Knoxville.

At the end of the day, I believe our current team (with tough losses only to very strong UGA and FL teams) would stand toe to toe with Notre Dame on the field right now. By the end of the season, I expect both teams to be ranked pretty close to one another in the top-25.

I know Irish fans will be pumped to see that #1 computer rank this weekend, and it definitely sucks to watch their quick 'turnaround'. But, in reality, DD has built a Vol team that is ever bit as good as them, and I think we just need to keep in mind that the SEC is a brutal, brutal conference.

The worm will turn folks. Keep the faith. GBO!
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I see a flaw in some of your logic, although I do not disagree with the overarching themes. First off, comparing year to year recruiting averages does very little to predict the outcome of a season. I have found that a four year trailing average analysis works better, as there are roughly four years worth of players on a team. If you do that, the recruiting numbers look a little different, and this does NOT account for the unusual amount of attrition that UT has suffered.

2012 (2012, 2011, 2010,2009 classes averaged)
Notre Dame.....16.25
Tennessee......12.25

2011 (2011, 2010, 2009, 2008 classes averaged)
Notre Dame.....11.75
Tennessee......16.75

2010 (2010, 2009, 2008, 2007 classes averaged)
Notre Dame.....11.25
Tennessee......14.25

When you take into account the total busts of Fulmer's last two classes (ranked 3 with almost total attrition, and 35th, and couple that with Kiff's only class (now seniors, only a small percentage are still on campus) you can see that UT's numbers are higher on paper than they should be in reality. In fact, I read a recruiting article that said that our 2009 class was one of the biggest busts in modern history.

The key takeaway is that until this year Notre Dame had better athletes and Kelly walked into a much better position than Dooley. Couple that with Notre Dame not having to play in the SEC and it might become a little more clear why he is having more success there than Dooley (or really anyone) could expect here.
 
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#60
#60
I think most coaches outside the SEC don't want any part of it unless they gona get paid the big bucks to catch hell when they don't win IMO.
 
#62
#62
dgcarter43 said:
Whatever Brian Kelly's temperment and style is, he can coach and has proven that and, not being critical of Derek Dooley, he has yet to prove he can. Who knows, he may turn out to be a very good coach, but we don't know that yet. I hope he is successful and restores Tn. football to it's rightful place of prominence in the NCAA. A victory Saturday at Miss. State will be a good start.
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bk.bmp
 
#63
#63
daj2576 said:
I see a flaw in some of your logic, although I do not disagree with the overarching themes. First off, comparing year to year recruiting averages does very little to predict the outcome of a season. I have found that a four year trailing average analysis works better, as there are roughly four years worth of players on a team. If you do that, the recruiting numbers look a little different, and this does NOT account for the unusual amount of attrition that UT has suffered.

2012 (2012, 2011, 2010,2009 classes averaged)
Notre Dame.....16.25
Tennessee......12.25

2011 (2011, 2010, 2009, 2008 classes averaged)
Notre Dame.....11.75
Tennessee......16.75

2010 (2010, 2009, 2008, 2007 classes averaged)
Notre Dame.....11.25
Tennessee......14.25

When you take into account the total busts of Fulmer's last two classes (ranked 3 with almost total attrition, and 35th, and couple that with Kiff's only class (now seniors, only a small percentage are still on campus) you can see that UT's numbers are higher on paper than they should be in reality. In fact, I read a recruiting article that said that our 2009 class was one of the biggest busts in modern history.

The key takeaway is that until this year Notre Dame had better athletes and Kelly walked into a much better position than Dooley. Couple that with Notre Dame not having to play in the SEC and it might become a little more clear why he is having more success there than Dooley (or really anyone) could expect here.
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So Notre Dame's classes have been better without all of the horrible attrition, and he has still produced similar results as Dooley. Interesting. Always a pleasure, daj.
 
#67
#67
Vol_Maul said:
Yeah. That Kentucky team was a really tough one last year. I bet they would have taken Notre Dame to the woodshed.
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Lol... Yeah, take one game out of the year.

And do you honestly think UT finishes 5-7 of Tyler Bray and Justin Hunter don't get hurt?
 
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#70
#70
OuterBanksVol said:
After Kiffen bolted, word was that Brian Kelly (at Cincinnati at the time) was among a number of coaches that politely told the UT athletic dept 'No thank you' to our HC position offer. Of course, Mr. Kelly went on to accept the Notre Dame position, while DD eventually accepted the UT position.

The first upcoming BCS poll comes out this weekend, and the *computer* rankings have the 5-0 Irish as #1. Meanwhile, we Vols are slightly above mediocreville having cracked the top 25 for the first time in years, and now sit at 3-2.

So, would it have made a difference had Kelly come to UT? I offer the following based on 2 factors only: recruiting and win/loss record.

Interestingly, Notre Dame's recruiting record is nearly identical to the Vols over the past 3 years, per Rivals:

2010
Notre Dame #14
UT #9

2011
Notre Dame #10
UT #13

2012
Notre Dame #20
UT #17

Average 3-year recruiting rank:
Notre Dame 14.6
UT 13.0

So, based solely on recruiting records, both teams are building top-20 teams.

The actual team records, though, seem to tell a very different story:

2010
Notre Dame 8-5
UT 6-7

2011
Notre Dame 8-5
UT 5-7

2012
Notre Dame 5-0
UT 3-2

Total 3-year record:
Notre Dame 21-10
UT 14-16

Obviously, ND looks far better on paper. But, would Kelly have posted a better record than DD had he come to UT? The quality of Notre Dame's opponents raises questions about the strength of their team v. UT, as follows:

2010
Notre Dame (played 2 ranked opponents - no top 10)
UT (played 5 ranked opponents - 3 top 10)

2011
Notre Dame 8-5 (played 2 ranked opponents - no top 10)
UT 5-7 (played 6 ranked opponents - 3 top 10)

2012
Notre Dame 5-0 (played 2 ranked opponents - 1 top 10)
UT 3-2 (played 2 ranked opponents - 1 top 10)

Total # of 3-year ranked opponents:
Notre Dame (6 ranked opponents - 1 top 10)
UT (13 ranked opponents - 7 top 10)

Until this year, the Irish have clearly had cupcake schedules, while the Vols have played in the toughest conference in the nation.

So my take on what effect Brian Kelly would have had on UT had he elected to be our HC is as follows: While the jury is still out on both he and DD, neither Kelly's recruiting record nor his win record suggest that he would have had more success than DD if he were in Knoxville.

At the end of the day, I believe our current team (with tough losses only to very strong UGA and FL teams) would stand toe to toe with Notre Dame on the field right now. By the end of the season, I expect both teams to be ranked pretty close to one another in the top-25.

I know Irish fans will be pumped to see that #1 computer rank this weekend, and it definitely sucks to watch their quick 'turnaround'. But, in reality, DD has built a Vol team that is ever bit as good as them, and I think we just need to keep in mind that the SEC is a brutal, brutal conference.

The worm will turn folks. Keep the faith. GBO!
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If we played ND schedul we would be ranked all the time also. If they placed fla, usc jr, bama, georgia every year it would be much different son.
 
#73
#73
JAMESFROMCT said:
If we played ND schedul we would be ranked all the time also. If they placed fla, usc jr, bama, georgia every year it would be much different son.
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Yeah, they were just busy playing USC, Stanford, Michigan, FSU and Michigan State. Nobodies. Dooley would fare no better with that schedule especially when you consider that Florida has had a couple of down years and the last time I checked, Michigan State might have been better than Georgia last year.
 
#74
#74
Vols4us said:
From my understanding the statements from Kelly in Jack's post are pretty spot on. Hamilton - the gift that keeps on giving. He became enamored with the Kiffin's, which was helped by Majors' relationship with Monte. He is no longer our AD as a result.

Kelly was my #1 choice by far. He had very successfully built 2 programs from little to nothing. He has an innovative offensive mind, like Spurrier. You knew one side of the ball was taken care of with your head coach, very unlike the current situation. He is a non-nonsense guy - team discipline would have been right. He is a great fund raiser and communicator to the fan base. IMO had he received and accepted the UT job he would not have left for ND, even though it is his dream job. All evidence from his past history indicates that he jumps into the job he has and will not turn from it until it is completed. He left Cincy because he had done everything that could be done at that school. They needed serious facilities upgrades that would have taken maybe hundreds of millions of dollars as well as a switch of conferences over time to achieve top tier status. The commitment to do that over a relatively short period of time was not there. It is Cincy - versus an Ohio State. He rightly moved on.

So the answer is Hamilton blew it for all of us and we would not be having these Dools goes or stays arguments. We would be competing for SEC championships again. Real deal players know real deal coaches and they sign on with them when they are presented the opportunity. That is happening at ND.
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Kelly specifically negotiated a series of facility upgrades in his 2007 contract extension. The commitment was there, the money to pay for the upgrades needed was not. I always heard that he was extremely miffed about the fact they wouldn't build him an indoor practice facility. The way Kelly left though was completely classless and IMO worse than Kiffin.

Montrell Hardy said:
Kelly did not build up Cincinnati IMO. Mark Dantonio was the one who did that. He took it to the next level yes, but they were all with Dantonio's players. I still think he would have been a bad fit for the SEC. He's a better fit for ND / Big 10 because the defensives he is going to face up there are far weaker and not nearly talented enough or fast enough.
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Dantonio certainly deserves some credit.


I think UT would be in better shape if Kelly had been hired instead of Kiffin. The poor 2008(?) recruiting class and the attrition that followed two straight coaching changes was a serious set back. The Kiffin hire/departure was really the straw that broke the camels back.
 
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