Recruiting Forum Football Talk IX

[Orange.]

Sardines, Saltine cracker, touch of olive oil and salt.

Thin-sliced Vidalia onion or hot red pepper on a few, if you want to get “fancy.”

 

[Orange.]

You may be the first person in history to ever say that and mean it.

 

[Orange.]

More pics from when I had no service.

Warderick Wells...

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Living the life.

 

[peaygolf]

Sardines, Saltine cracker, touch of olive oil and salt.

Thin-sliced Vidalia onion or hot red pepper on a few, if you want to get “fancy.”

Anchovies or Sardines...wrapped in a Basil leaf.

 

[Orange.]

@Enki_Amenra on VN is friends with an eligible Data Center. Her name is 'Sally'. You want me to intro you?

Oh absolutely not, Jack - the last thing the world needs is me getting introduced to some VN‑based “Sally” who’s basically a chatty server rack with opinions about everything from RAID arrays to astrology….

Yeah, but what nice rack! — Enki

 

[Orange.]

Anchovies or Sardines...wrapped in a Basil leaf.

Great idea! Will happen here soon. I think I might grow some basil. Late, but not too late.

 

[jave36]

It's a great deal. I'm just afraid I would end up sampling all of it and eat myself into a stupor.

I doubt the food is good enough to eat that much of it haha. It's probably the grade above dog food if they're giving it away that cheap. But hey, even just free sodas for the day would probably be a break even.

 

[Orangeburst]

Using Beta-Bernoulli Conjugacy

Perfect — with an 8–4 record here's the math Tennessee’s posterior win probability under Josh Heupel.

Bayesian Win‑Probability Model (Using 8–4 Data)

We observe:

• \(n = 12\) games
• \(w = 8\) wins
• \(\ell = 4\) losses


We place a Beta prior on Tennessee’s true win probability \(\theta_H\):

\theta_H \sim \text{Beta}(\alpha_0,\ \beta_0)


To stay neutral and let the data speak, use a uniform prior:

\alpha_0 = 1,\quad \beta_0 = 1

Posterior Distribution

By Beta–Bernoulli conjugacy:

\theta_H \mid \text{data} \sim \text{Beta}(\alpha_0 + w,\ \beta_0 + \ell)


Plug in the numbers:

\theta_H \mid \text{data} \sim \text{Beta}(1 + 8,\ 1 + 4)


{\theta_H \mid \text{data} \sim \text{Beta}(9,\ 5)}


This is the full Bayesian belief about Tennessee’s true win probability under Heupel after an 8–4 season.

Posterior Mean (Expected Win Probability)

\mathbb{E}[\theta_H \mid \text{data}]
= \frac{\alpha_0 + w}{\alpha_0 + \beta_0 + n}


= \frac{9}{14}


{\mathbb{E}[\theta_H] = 0.643}


So the Bayesian estimate of Tennessee’s true win probability is 64.3%.

Posterior Predictive Probability of Winning the Next Game

For a new game \(W_{n+1}\):

\mathbb{P}(W_{n+1} = 1 \mid \text{data})
= \mathbb{E}[\theta_H \mid \text{data}]


{\mathbb{P}(\text{Tennessee wins next game}) = 0.643}


This is the Bayesian “next‑game” prediction.


95% Credible Interval

The 95% credible interval for a Beta(9,5) distribution is approximately:

\theta_H^{95\%} \in [0.39,\ 0.86]


Interpretation:

With 95% probability, Tennessee’s true win rate under Heupel lies between 39% and 86%, given an 8–4 season and a neutral prior.

Maverick also predicted a 100% probability that if Tennessee scores more points, and holds opponents to fewer points than they score, they win!

 

[Jackcrevol]

View attachment 833654

Oh I dont have a clue what anyone that means, the original question was 'if Tennessee scores more points, and holds their opponent to less, who wins?'

A tale as old as thyme.

 

[Jackcrevol]

Great idea! Will happen here soon. I think I might grow some basil. Late, but not too late.

now is the thyme

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

When I think about "family-friendly" places, Hooters immediately comes to mind.

Hooters says it's pushing to be more family-friendly​

MSN

are they putting the girls in owl costumes?

 

[Enki_Amenra]

Yeah, but what nice rack! — Enki

Hey now, I'm not the one who likes the AI girls,

 

[Glitch]

Wow, that stinks.

 

[InVOLuntary]

I was going to ask where all the bikinis are and then realized you'd probably send a selfie, so never mind.

I could model my banana hammock if you want.

 

[Glitch]

are they putting the girls in owl costumes?

 

[Glitch]

I could model my banana hammock if you want.

 

[InVOLuntary]

The amount of money down here is incredible. Most of these are charter vessels that cost upwards of $100,000/week.

 

[Outofmyvolcanmind]

 

[Orangeredblooded]

Great idea! Will happen here soon. I think I might grow some basil. Late, but not too late.

Have you ever made pesto?

 

[tnhunter 10]

My horse only comes out of its stable when it gets dark…

It’s becoming a night mare.

 

[Volunteer821]

The police pulled me over last night and said, “Sir, do you realize how badly your car was swerving between lanes?”

I said, “I’ve had eight drinks, officer.”

The officer replied, “Sir, that’s no excuse to let your wife drive.”

......actually that one was pretty good.

 

[Volunteer821]

I could model my banana hammock if you want.

 

[you]

are they putting the girls in owl costumes?

They said you sound like an owl

 

[Leeleesteeth]

Using Beta-Bernoulli Conjugacy

Perfect — with an 8–4 record here's the math Tennessee’s posterior win probability under Josh Heupel.

Bayesian Win‑Probability Model (Using 8–4 Data)

We observe:

• \(n = 12\) games
• \(w = 8\) wins
• \(\ell = 4\) losses


We place a Beta prior on Tennessee’s true win probability \(\theta_H\):

\theta_H \sim \text{Beta}(\alpha_0,\ \beta_0)


To stay neutral and let the data speak, use a uniform prior:

\alpha_0 = 1,\quad \beta_0 = 1

Posterior Distribution

By Beta–Bernoulli conjugacy:

\theta_H \mid \text{data} \sim \text{Beta}(\alpha_0 + w,\ \beta_0 + \ell)


Plug in the numbers:

\theta_H \mid \text{data} \sim \text{Beta}(1 + 8,\ 1 + 4)


{\theta_H \mid \text{data} \sim \text{Beta}(9,\ 5)}


This is the full Bayesian belief about Tennessee’s true win probability under Heupel after an 8–4 season.

Posterior Mean (Expected Win Probability)

\mathbb{E}[\theta_H \mid \text{data}]
= \frac{\alpha_0 + w}{\alpha_0 + \beta_0 + n}


= \frac{9}{14}


{\mathbb{E}[\theta_H] = 0.643}


So the Bayesian estimate of Tennessee’s true win probability is 64.3%.

Posterior Predictive Probability of Winning the Next Game

For a new game \(W_{n+1}\):

\mathbb{P}(W_{n+1} = 1 \mid \text{data})
= \mathbb{E}[\theta_H \mid \text{data}]


{\mathbb{P}(\text{Tennessee wins next game}) = 0.643}


This is the Bayesian “next‑game” prediction.


95% Credible Interval

The 95% credible interval for a Beta(9,5) distribution is approximately:

\theta_H^{95\%} \in [0.39,\ 0.86]


Interpretation:

With 95% probability, Tennessee’s true win rate under Heupel lies between 39% and 86%, given an 8–4 season and a neutral prior.

Maverick also predicted a 100% probability that if Tennessee scores more points, and holds opponents to fewer points than they score, they win!

I'll take Colonel Mustard in the Library with the Rope.

 

[InVOLuntary]

The amount of money down here is incredible. Most of these are charter vessels that cost upwards of $100,000/week.
View attachment 833663View attachment 833666

That bottom picture is vessel that was owned by Jonny Depp and he sold it to JK Rowling. Some media mogul owns it now.