GAME THREAD: @ #1 UCONN, Sunday, 1/30, 12:00 pm EST (Fox)

The ( System ) is supposed to be fast and furious ! The main problem with that is we don't not have the scorers that produce enough points. Unless you can turn a team over enough to get 20% more shots that's not happening against good teams. Therefore I think we need to lower the number of possessions by playing soft full court defense until they get to front court only then start trapping. On offense we probably need to work the ball take time off the clock and shoot a lot less 3s . We need a couple of good rebounding post that can finish a the rim . Also need a couple of really good 3 point shooters and then we can try more 3 point shots . Next year the seat will get hot pretty quickly with this type of blowout losses. Hockey subbing may work first half but by second half against good teams you've got to only have situational subbing.
A great example is we turned Miss St over 12 times in the first quarter and got three points out of it. That is why this team probably shouldn't press other than on made baskets. You turn teams over you need some player that can hit the open three we don't have any that can do that with enough consistency.
 
When I read "the press doesn't work on Elite teams" did we not watch yesterday's game. UCONN uses the press defense often in their games. IT'S THE COMMITMENT and FIRE IN THE BELLY to do it well Against elite competition. Granted I do want Kim to grow and add another defensive scheme to her coaching, but she's gotta get out of her stubbornness as a coach to allow that along with massive sub in sub outs. Nolan Richardson had the "40 minutes of hell" it was viewed as one of the best schemes in Basketball still to this day teams with men and women utilize it. Just the roster has to have THE RIGHT KIND OF PLAYERS and COMMITMENT.
 
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It did take a while though this is by far the best she has done in a season. She still is just a shooter which of course we could use. She still hangs out at the three point line very little rebounding for her size. She does fill a need we could really use in the style we play. Kellie was more into five players playing most of the minutes two or three top subs getting the rest. She started giving Justine about three four minutes about the middle of the season. She didn't or couldn't do much way back then and those minutes went away.
Well Kellie also had Sara, Tess and Karolyn as tall long range wide players. So that was a mistake on both she and Sam having 6'3-6'4 players that did the same thing.
 
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I'm not completely sure what we can learn from all of this. We caught up subbing more and we fell behind subbing less. Regardless, here are the substitution patterns for Tennessee and UCONN, courtesy of ClaudeCode scraping the data from ESPN's play-by-play into a json file that Claude analyzed. Claude's commentary included next:

Claude: The UConn game shows the same stark contrast - Tennessee with three 5-5 subs in Q1 alone, while UConn's largest sub all game was a single 2-2 in each quarter. Tennessee tightened rotations in Q4 (no 5-5 subs), similar to the pattern in close SEC games.

Tennessee Lady Vols Substitution Patterns
vs UConn

TNUCONN
Q15-5: 3
4-4: 1
2-2: 2
1-1: 3
2-2: 1
1-1: 5
Q25-5: 1
4-4: 1
3-3: 4
2-2: 2
1-1: 1
2-2: 1
1-1: 3
Q35-5: 2
3-3: 3
2-2: 2
2-2: 1
1-1: 2
Q43-3: 2
2-2: 3
1-1: 1
2-2: 1
1-1: 1
[th colspan=2] UConn [/th]
 
Wonder if we will ever know what's going on with Cooper causing her lack of effort play and if it's affecting the rest of the team? Seems that something is going on internally right now. Last 2-3 games she has not played her normal self.
 
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When I read "the press doesn't work on Elite teams" did we not watch yesterday's game. UCONN uses the press defense often in their games. IT'S THE COMMITMENT and FIRE IN THE BELLY to do it well Against elite competition. Granted I do want Kim to grow and add another defensive scheme to her coaching, but she's gotta get out of her stubbornness as a coach to allow that along with massive sub in sub outs. Noah Richardson had the "40 minutes of hell" it was viewed as one of the best schemes in Basketball still to this day teams with men and women utilize it. Just the roster has to have THE RIGHT KIND OF PLAYERS and COMMITMENT.
UConn did a great job with their press and who played Strong 37 minutes, Fudd 39 minutes, Shade 31 minutes, Arnold 28 minutes, S. Williams 29 minutes. He played his starters 164 minutes out of 200 you need to play. Heckel and Ziebel played all the rest except a a two minutes stint by Jana El. So he might be on to something using his best five players 164 minutes. We haven't got close to doing that except Alabama and maybe one more game.
 
Kinda like Kellie couldn't get the same level of play from Justine a top 9 recruit in the court who she allowed to rot on the bench and now she's thriving at Vandy in Shea's system.

In fairness, Kellie had her one year during which Justine generally played like a typical freshman. After transferring, she initially didn't play much better in Shea's system. It took until her senior year for her to finally start fulfilling her promise, and even then she's not exactly an All-american world-beater. Happy for her but let's keep it real. She was the #11 recruit in the country who has turned into a solid contributor her senior year .

There's a reason that Dalton Knecht wasn't starting for a major college his first years. Some fine players take longer to develop than others.
 
I'm not completely sure what we can learn from all of this. We caught up subbing more and we fell behind subbing less. Regardless, here are the substitution patterns for Tennessee and UCONN, courtesy of ClaudeCode scraping the data from ESPN's play-by-play into a json file that Claude analyzed. Claude's commentary included next:

Claude: The UConn game shows the same stark contrast - Tennessee with three 5-5 subs in Q1 alone, while UConn's largest sub all game was a single 2-2 in each quarter. Tennessee tightened rotations in Q4 (no 5-5 subs), similar to the pattern in close SEC games.

Tennessee Lady Vols Substitution Patterns
vs UConn

TNUCONN
Q15-5: 3
4-4: 1
2-2: 2
1-1: 3
2-2: 1
1-1: 5
Q25-5: 1
4-4: 1
3-3: 4
2-2: 2
1-1: 1
2-2: 1
1-1: 3
Q35-5: 2
3-3: 3
2-2: 2
2-2: 1
1-1: 2
Q43-3: 2
2-2: 3
1-1: 1
2-2: 1
1-1: 1
[th colspan=2] UConn [/th]

What it tells me is that he is keeping three and sometimes four starters on the floor at all time. I think that is the best way to get your most efficient return. They are starters because they are the best players. They give you the best result and he certainly got it yesterday and every game this season.
 
I'm not completely sure what we can learn from all of this. We caught up subbing more and we fell behind subbing less. Regardless, here are the substitution patterns for Tennessee and UCONN, courtesy of ClaudeCode scraping the data from ESPN's play-by-play into a json file that Claude analyzed. Claude's commentary included next:

Claude: The UConn game shows the same stark contrast - Tennessee with three 5-5 subs in Q1 alone, while UConn's largest sub all game was a single 2-2 in each quarter. Tennessee tightened rotations in Q4 (no 5-5 subs), similar to the pattern in close SEC games.

Tennessee Lady Vols Substitution Patterns
vs UConn

TNUCONN
Q15-5: 3
4-4: 1
2-2: 2
1-1: 3
2-2: 1
1-1: 5
Q25-5: 1
4-4: 1
3-3: 4
2-2: 2
1-1: 1
2-2: 1
1-1: 3
Q35-5: 2
3-3: 3
2-2: 2
2-2: 1
1-1: 2
Q43-3: 2
2-2: 3
1-1: 1
2-2: 1
1-1: 1
[th colspan=2] UConn [/th]
I’m not sure the subbing pattern is that instructive anymore either. But thank you for the stats and they are interesting.

One thing that stands out to me is that she loves the five for five subs at the beginning of the game and at the beginning of quarters. Even in a couple of games where there were only 2 5 for 5 subs, they were at the beginning of the game and the beginning of the third qtr. Shes firmly locked onto subbing out completely and quickly, usually by 2 mins, to start games. Im curious what the thinking is behind that.
 
I’m not sure the subbing pattern is that instructive anymore either. But thank you for the stats and they are interesting.

One thing that stands out to me is that she loves the five for five subs at the beginning of the game and at the beginning of quarters. Even in a couple of games where there were only 2 5 for 5 subs, they were at the beginning of the game and the beginning of the third qtr. Shes firmly locked onto subbing out completely and quickly, usually by 2 mins to start games. Im curious what the thinking is behind that.
Yeah. Once I start tracking data, I usually stay with it. Sometimes, patterns are slow to reveal.
 
See where our SOS just jumped to number one and our RPI is at nine and Net at 20. If the season was over we would be a five seed in the NCAA Tourney. I don't see us dropping out even if we only beat Missouri and Texas A&M may be something like a 9 seed if that is all we win, but think we would still get in with 8 SEC wins like last season.
 
It might be time for this fan ship to consider, for its own collective mental health, to try to come to grips with the concept of “it is what it is” and then just ride the rest of the season out. We‘re all disappointed that the team has now taken several of the kind of über beatings that have each left a pretty bad mark. As the kids would say when I was young, “That sucks donkey d*cks.”

All that said, at this moment the Lady Vols are tied with South Carolina for 1st in the SEC. Obviously we’re HIGHLY likely to take more losses. But, it’s also not impossible that the team could catch a magic carpet and ride into a top-third finish in league play.

I love our team, and I know they‘re hurting and wish to God they could have pulled off a major upset yesterday. I heard they were heartbroken and embarrassed by the loss to Mississippi State. These women are not trying to lose. They do care and are doing the best they can from what I can see. But … it is what it is.

I hope they don’t give up on themselves just because a lot of fans are jumping ship. 😢 I hope more of us can rally around them in our thoughts and send them positive vibes. All the “sad truth-telling” isn’t going to do anything but add pressure.

We’re not dead yet!
 
See where our SOS just jumped to number one and our RPI is at nine and Net at 20. If the season was over we would be a five seed in the NCAA Tourney. I don't see us dropping out even if we only beat Missouri and Texas A&M may be something like a 9 seed if that is all we win, but think we would still get in with 8 SEC wins like last season.
We’re going to the tourney. With a couple of upsets and the chips falling the right way, we could even still host.

My disappointment is that the LV’s are still far away from competing with the truly elite teams, as we get shown every time we go against one. Last year at least we were coming close, this year the blowouts seem like regression.
 
Flipside of all this is the definition of insanity. Our team, like Wiley C, has been humiliated and blown to smithereens four times now ( I’m being kind about NC State) on national TV. Like every time we’ve stuck a toe in the top 15 pool. So the answer is stay the course and wait for the “right” roster to find us?

Remember this roster was supposed to be the “right” one. Got rid of those old plow horses and brought in the cheetahs don’t you know? You’re correct they signed up for this, which for me makes it even worse becausehow has that turned out? The frustration is obvious. So we just keep doing what we’re doing and hope the next right roster is actually the right one?

But what right player in control of their faculties would want to sign on for this after what they’ve seen? I guess we’ll find that out come portal time.

The worst thing about this gimmick, er, system, philosophy, whatever you wanna call it, is she treats it as a stand alone. There’s obviously no Plan B, even if we were teased with it a little bit against Bama and Kentucky (surprise! our best wins)Against the best teams it is painfully apparent that once the beloved system breaks down no one can stop the crate of Acme dynamite from blowing up in our face.
How many floor minutes were by players with more than 20 games IN THIS SYSTEM? It is different, many variants of squad on the floor.

Cutting down on mass substitutions is a possibility, and cutting down on 94 feet of pressure is a possibility, but the impact on squad retention is in play if you do.

We are not at the top, DW took the risk on DIFFERENT instead of traditional where we are fighting for same players as those entrenched there. Keeping 10 players in today’s world probably requires playing them per shared minutes plan.

If we maintain these freshmen and add at least 1 generational player and some other replacement players WHERE could it go? Pivot away from plan, what are the PROBABILITIES in total roster talent ongoing.

I would bet our total brain trust is and have been having these discussions. Short term vs long term discussions.

It is not a simplistic dilemma and risk/reward is a calculation best dealt with by the most informed.
 
I’m not sure the subbing pattern is that instructive anymore either. But thank you for the stats and they are interesting.

One thing that stands out to me is that she loves the five for five subs at the beginning of the game and at the beginning of quarters. Even in a couple of games where there were only 2 5 for 5 subs, they were at the beginning of the game and the beginning of the third qtr. Shes firmly locked onto subbing out completely and quickly, usually by 2 mins, to start games. Im curious what the thinking is behind that.
You can easily come up with a theory as to what is wrong with that 5 on 5 subbing. You have five players who are shooting 47, 42, 40, 39, 41 in the game and your subbing them all out to being in 33,35.32.31. 30. Your instantly hurting your shooting percentage and your doing it several times a game. Whereas UConn always leaves in three starters and most of the time four so they do not suffer any dramatic change in ability like our subbing is certainly bringing to the floor. You can easily see how this could cost you three percent from the field or more. Her plan only works well if all ten players are totally equal in ability. We know that is not true stats should tell her that and who to play the most.
 
See where our SOS just jumped to number one and our RPI is at nine and Net at 20. If the season was over we would be a five seed in the NCAA Tourney. I don't see us dropping out even if we only beat Missouri and Texas A&M may be something like a 9 seed if that is all we win, but think we would still get in with 8 SEC wins like last season.
I would rather be a 6 seed, than a 5 seed.
 
It might be time for this fan ship to consider, for its own collective mental health, to try to come to grips with the concept of “it is what it is” and then just ride the rest of the season out. We‘re all disappointed that the team has now taken several of the kind of über beatings that have each left a pretty bad mark. As the kids would say when I was young, “That sucks donkey d*cks.”

All that said, at this moment the Lady Vols are tied with South Carolina for 1st in the SEC. Obviously we’re HIGHLY likely to take more losses. But, it’s also not impossible that the team could catch a magic carpet and ride into a top-third finish in league play.

I love our team, and I know they‘re hurting and wish to God they could have pulled off a major upset yesterday. I heard they were heartbroken and embarrassed by the loss to Mississippi State. These women are not trying to lose. They do care and are doing the best they can from what I can see. But … it is what it is.

I hope they don’t give up on themselves just because a lot of fans are jumping ship. 😢 I hope more of us can rally around them in our thoughts and send them positive vibes. All the “sad truth-telling” isn’t going to do anything but add pressure.

We’re not dead yet!
I did that after the Miss St game it is what it is. I still have hope but really downplaying what this team can do is certainly not being a fan. I even said just hoping we keep the NCAA streak alive. It still means a lot to me as no one else can claim to have been to everyone. Holly came within game it seemed of losing it back when she was coaching, but we got in that year hope it is never that close again.
 
I’m not sure the subbing pattern is that instructive anymore either. But thank you for the stats and they are interesting.

One thing that stands out to me is that she loves the five for five subs at the beginning of the game and at the beginning of quarters. Even in a couple of games where there were only 2 5 for 5 subs, they were at the beginning of the game and the beginning of the third qtr. Shes firmly locked onto subbing out completely and quickly, usually by 2 mins, to start games. Im curious what the thinking is behind that.
Same curiosity here. The beginning of the game and the start of the 3rd are when your best players should be on the floor. But she subs them out within 2 mins. Which puts our next 5 against the other teams top 5. This is usually when we dig big holes against top teams or when lower level teams mount a comeback. Then we use a ton of energy trying to claw our way back out. Makes absolutely no sense. I’m not a coach, but they can surely see this??
 
Kinda like Kellie couldn't get the same level of play from Justine a top 9 recruit in the court who she allowed to rot on the bench and now she's thriving at Vandy in Shea's system.
All Justine wanted to do was shoot 3s from half court. Kellie wanted her to do exactly what Shea is asking her to do. Also how long did it take her to finally play in Shea's system? Had she been opened to the exact same thing about what was being asked of her game from Kellie, we would see a totally different player. How many WNBA players does Kellie have compared to Shea? I'll take Rae, Jordy, and Kea's development over Justine's!
 
Well we certainly are not locked in at five just where we are now. We could end up like a nine or still three or four. We win every game left we'd be pushing a two or three for sure. I think just looking at the games left six to eight looks probable.
I still think they can beat a few of those teams and get to a 3 seed, the only team I’m worried about is Texas. One other team usually has the refs on their side but that’s about it.
 
It’s interesting how similar Kim and Pat’s offensive problems were and are. They both depended heavily on overplaying defenses producing points of turnovers,plus rebounding and put backs for offense.

Half court offense was therefore not emphasized, having to play it almost looked at as a failure of the system.

Pretty sure CKC wants to win and keep her job so I think she’ll eventually retool
Yup. And I think it was you that mentioned how long it took Pat to break through to the top echelons, even before womens' basketball was under the NCAA. Remember LA TECH?

Plus, the game AND THE TALENT POOL was very different, even until very recently. I saw the post about fewer girls playing basketball, but a lot of that is early specialization which is just a part of youth sports these days. (Top level travel baseball has become insane. Same for top level girls' volleyball.)

As for Kim being willing to learn and grow, I think she's shown that. She mentioned knowing she needed and older presence on her first GS teams and went and got her dad. To me, that took courage as it's so easy to get criticized for bringing in daddy. But it worked. As we've said, winning is the final answer. Geno is arrogant, vindictive (Candace off the Olympic team), and often wrong (his famous assessment of how Caitlin would handle the WNBA). But he wins, so the rest gets overlooked.

Kim also, we know, seeks advice from her husband, and I think I remember her talking about getting advice from other coaches, but I can't remember for sure. As far as I know, there aren't any widely circulated stories of her going to learn from top coaches in the men's game like there were with Pat, but we'll see. Like I said, this team and this season is very, very different for her. Different offers the opportunity to compare this experience to previous and set an agenda for learning. When it's not broke, don't fix it. I don't know if her approach is "broke" -- we'll see what adjustments she has in coming weeks -- but it's certainly wobbly. However, if she does go seek to learn, I don't expect her to play it up. Just doesn't seem to be her style. However, in today's environment, I'm sure word will leak out.
 
All Justine wanted to do was shoot 3s from half court. Kellie wanted her to do exactly what Shea is asking her to do. Also how long did it take her to finally play in Shea's system? Had she been opened to the exact same thing about what was being asked of her game from Kellie, we would see a totally different player. How many WNBA players does Kellie have compared to Shea? I'll take Rae, Jordy, and Kea's development over Justine's!

I did notice during Vandy's game against Florida (during which Vandy fell behind early and had to dig their way out even while playing in Gym Weirdo) that Justine has gotten more physical. She will block out and hook to get rebounds, and I saw her very obviously giving a two-arm shiver to the chest of a moving FL player (no ref call, of course). So that's progress.
 
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I still think they can beat a few of those teams and get to a 3 seed, the only team I’m worried about is Texas. One other team usually has the refs on their side but that’s about it.
Don't want to get my hopes up to high after that Miss St disaster that really made me question this teams desire. I think they have the ability to win a lot of them just will we show up to do it.
 

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