Updated Conference/Playoff Discussion (long)

#130
#130
9-3 we’re out.

All playoff talk assumes 10-2.

At 10-2, JoAg will have won SEC POY and be statistically best QB in SEC.

No way they leave out that story line.
 
#131
#131
OrangeEtBlanc said:
Man, I appreciate the work you put in on these analyses, but you are letting ethereal “feelings” dictate over facts. You may feel Vandy is smoke & mirrors, but the fact is they are currently 7-1, ranked in the top 10, and don’t have a tremendously difficult remaining schedule. Thus, you have to at least account for them, even if you think they will not pan out because they are in the conversation.

I fear the committee will not put 5 SEC teams in unless they absolutely have to, and it’s looking like they won’t have to.

The current SEC top 4 would be:

A&M
Alabama
Georgia
Ole Miss

I agree with your 3 from the BIG:
Ohio State
Indiana
Oregon

Including the Big 12 & ACC winners:
BYU/Texas Tech
GT/Miami/UVA

Notre Dame has already made its way back into the conversation, and they are unlikely to lose again.

Then include the G5 winner:
Memphis or USF

That is 11/12 spots right there, without factoring any other possible at-large bids for the ACC or Big 12.

You think the committee will put a 10-2 Tennessee team with no elite wins in over a 1-loss (or even 2-loss) team from another conference for the last at-large? When the SEC already has 4 teams? We NEED Vandy to be ranked high for the last game.

This is not even factoring potential upsets in CCGs that could steal spots.

I’m a fan, too, but those hopes are unrealistic. We needed Oklahoma to beat Ole Miss yesterday so we could slip into the top 4 in the SEC. Now, I fear, we need a lot of chaos.
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We need to win out and win big or imo we don't make playoffs, barring some upsets ranked ahead of us. Texas wound up only beating Vandy by 3
 
#133
#133
Miami dropping to 2 losses causes issues for Notre Dame.

Notre Dame is playing a 1 win Boston College team today. I'm going to be real interested to see what the committee does initially with a 2 loss Miami and 2 loss Notre Dame next to each other and 2 loss Tennessee assuming we win today. Where they place Vandy and Texas as well.
 
#136
#136
At 7-2, Vols will move up to 10 (Texas Tech having trouble) or 11 tomorrow.

If we run the table, how do we not get in the CFP?
 
#137
#137
WiseOlVol said:
At 7-2, Vols will move up to 10 (Texas Tech having trouble) or 11 tomorrow.

If we run the table, how do we not get in the CFP?
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BYU and Tech play each other next week.

Notre Dame is playing a 1 loss BC today. I have to think us beating #18 OU would give us a nice push to being neck and neck with Notre Dame or higher in the initial rankings this week. Also you can’t have a 2 loss Miami ranked below a 2 loss Notre Dame given the head to head.
 
#138
#138
Also people need to quit giving so much weight to the AP polling. The committee will be more diverse than these AP voters.
 
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#140
#140
JMSqb11 said:
Miami dropping to 2 losses causes issues for Notre Dame.

Notre Dame is playing a 1 win Boston College team today. I'm going to be real interested to see what the committee does initially with a 2 loss Miami and 2 loss Notre Dame next to each other and 2 loss Tennessee assuming we win today. Where they place Vandy and Texas as well.
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Womp womp. 10-2 Notre Dame had no chance. They beat no one.
 
#142
#142
EastTNVol6240 said:
Love to see it, but we seriously gotta do away with this auto bid nonsense. Tulane and JMU are wasted spots.
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Or just split into two playoffs, one for power 4 and one for G5.

My thoughts on this being, there are legitimately stronger power 4 teams that get left out or at least team with a strong argument while the G5 guys do not have a chance to win anything.
 
#143
#143
ChaplainVol said:
Or just split into two playoffs, one for power 4 and one for G5.

My thoughts on this being, there are legitimately stronger power 4 teams that get left out or at least team with a strong argument while the G5 guys do not have a chance to win anything.
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They can't get good TV money for a G5 tournament. Period. End of story. Do you watch the NIT?

If they could, they would, because more TV games makes ESPN drool.
 
#145
#145
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
They can't get good TV money for a G5 tournament. Period. End of story. Do you watch the NIT?

If they could, they would, because more TV games makes ESPN drool.
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I dont watch basketball, so either tournament is irrelevant to me.

If i could watch the vols every weekend in postseason, I would. But thats not a thing so have to settle for other games that might be interesing. I'd watch a g5 playoff in the bowl season. They could even schedule as a smaller 8 team bracket with their game taking place during early bowl season when there's nother else in college ball to watch.

Pretty simple solution for the revenue issues.
 
#146
#146
ChaplainVol said:
I dont watch basketball, so either tournament is irrelevant to me.

If i could watch the vols every weekend in postseason, I would. But thats not a thing so have to settle for other games that might be interesing. I'd watch a g5 playoff in the bowl season. They could even schedule as a smaller 8 team bracket with their game taking place during early bowl season when there's nother else in college ball to watch.

Pretty simple solution for the revenue issues.
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I'm betting if the revenue would work, ESPN would squeeze the TV money for all it's worth as we see ridiculous "Who are these teams?" bowl matchups now.

It's what they do and it's obvious by nearly completely empty bowl stadiums. I'm sorry, the G5 money isn't there or ESPN would exploit it.
 
#147
#147
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
I'm betting if the revenue would work, ESPN would squeeze the TV money for all it's worth as we see ridiculous "Who are these teams?" bowl matchups now.

It's what they do and it's obvious by nearly completely empty bowl stadiums. I'm sorry, the G5 money isn't there or ESPN would exploit it.
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Till they try it, we really don't know. We'll continue to have G5 teams take spots from P4 teams that have very little shot of going deep in a playoff run which was the rub. Ultimately, the revenue problem is up to ESPN and similar entities. But, they still run an NIT tourney, right? So, it's not without some precedent as a possibility.

More fanbases having more to spend money on presents more opportunities for revenue. I just think this ends up being the simplest solution to the problem presented. The other alternative is a hard ranking with no autobid, which I prefer, but G5 conferences will obviously hate.
 
#148
#148
ChaplainVol said:
Till they try it, we really don't know. We'll continue to have G5 teams take spots from P4 teams that have very little shot of going deep in a playoff run which was the rub. Ultimately, the revenue problem is up to ESPN and similar entities. But, they still run an NIT tourney, right? So, it's not without some precedent as a possibility.

More fanbases having more to spend money on presents more opportunities for revenue. I just think this ends up being the simplest solution to the problem presented. The other alternative is a hard ranking with no autobid, which I prefer, but G5 conferences will obviously hate.
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I think ESPN probably runs the numbers and may be lobbying for a G5 tournament behind the scenes without success.

ESPN usually gets what they want from schools because they pay for it. Either they've not coughed up enough to the G5 to make them give up "belonging" or the money isn't there.

The NIT survives, IMO, on legacy. It was there before money completely owned sports like it does now. I don't KNOW it doesn't make money because basketball fans are strange people but my gut doubts it's very profitable.
 
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#149
#149
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
I think ESPN probably runs the numbers and may be lobbying for a G5 tournament behind the scenes without success.

ESPN usually gets what they want from schools because they pay for it. Either they've not coughed up enough to the G5 to make them give up "belonging" or the money isn't there.

The NIT survives, IMO, on legacy. It was there before money completely owned sports like it does now. I don't KNOW it doesn't make money because basketball fans are strange people but my gut doubts it's very profitable.
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That's an interesting take on it. Certainly a possibility. Running with your scenario, no way the G5 conferences are blocking it if ESPN is lobbying which means it's the NCAA killing it? Interesting hill for the NCAA to die on, but it is the NCAA.

A little Google searching shows the NIT is technically profitable with some heavy asterisks, maybe. It benefits NCAA and ESPN the most. Incentives for universities seem low through most of the tourney until getting deep in, which seems like a gamble and why some teams have declined invites in the past. Wondering if that's a basketball structure thing with reference to your point of it being really old. Help me understand that better, cause I honestly have little clue.
 
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#150
#150
ChaplainVol said:
That's an interesting take on it. Certainly a possibility. Running with your scenario, no way the G5 conferences are blocking it if ESPN is lobbying which means it's the NCAA killing it? Interesting hill for the NCAA to die on, but it is the NCAA.

A little Google searching shows the NIT is technically profitable with some heavy asterisks, maybe. It benefits NCAA and ESPN the most. Incentives for universities seem low through most of the tourney until getting deep in, which seems like a gamble and why some teams have declined invites in the past. Wondering if that's a basketball structure thing with reference to your point of it being really old. Help me understand that better, cause I honestly have little clue.
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I'm not the guy when it comes to the NIT. I only start watching March Madness (except for UT games, usually) around the Sweet Sixteen. March is too beautiful usually to watch ball all day.

I just trust ESPN to look for more and more games to televise that make money. They'll play up this "someone good gets left out of the CFP" discussion as much as possible to try to justify 16 teams ASAP. It's good business for them.

I think the G5 or NCAA or the money is stopping a "one step down" football tournament. Which one(s) would only be a guess for me but my guess is: money, NCAA, G5 in that order.

Admitting you're not worthy of the top tier tourney would be hard for the G5, I think, but money makes things hurt less.

The NCAA wants to avoid as long as possible the split of the high revenue programs from the low revenue programs which 2 tournaments implies. The NCAA will probably be abandoned by the high revenue programs in favor of some kind of new organization which will cripple the revenue the NCAA makes.

ESPN simply won't do a lower level tournament if it's not going to draw enough ads. That kind of market analysis should be their bread and butter. If it were very profitable, they'd push hard for it.
 
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