All things STOCKS

#19,326
#19,326
Jax_Vol said:
I wish!


But, nah....the sophomore year of a President's term is historically the weakest link.

I can't really see it making 7500. Best case, maybe 7350 ballpark IMHO.

We're actually overdue for a negative year, but we'll see 🤞
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I just see a lot of obstacles out there. Prognostications are just that. No one really knows. I’m just hoping for no black swan cluster event that rolls us back 50+ %.
 
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#19,328
#19,328
DinkinFlicka said:
Futes and BTC lookin' bearish.
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Here we go again...equities being led lower by crypto. A retest of that low in BTC from 11/21 looks likely.

It is astonishing to me how so many in that community still run with the narrative that crypto is a "hedge" against anything. It's the epitome of a risk asset. Which is fine; I have nothing against that, but quit trying to pitch it as something that it clearly isn't.
 
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#19,329
#19,329
05_never_again said:
Here we go again...equities being led lower by crypto. A retest of that low in BTC from 11/21 looks likely.

It is astonishing to me how so many in that community still run with the narrative that crypto is a "hedge" against anything. It's the epitome of a risk asset. Which is fine; I have nothing against that, but quit trying to pitch it as something that it clearly isn't.
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It seems to just amplify volatility while offering zero protection against it.
 
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#19,330
#19,330
DinkinFlicka said:
It seems to just amplify volatility while offering zero protection against it.
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It's not so much the volatility of it that makes those claims a bill of goods. It's that it is highly correlated with the performance of other risk assets.

It's been pitched as a hedge against inflation. It performed incredibly well during a long-term period of low inflation then had a nearly 80% drawdown during the 2021-22 inflationary period. It's been pitched as a hedge against external shocks, but it got smashed along with every other risk asset during COVID and even sells off along with other risk assets during short-term reactions to other shocks (like Russia invading Ukraine). It sold off incredibly sharply along with equities during the late 2018 taper tantrum selloff and the resulting fears about the economy going into recession, despite it being pitched as having no connection to those risks. It's been pitched as a hedge against USD weakness, although since BTC's inception the DXY has rallied from the mid 70s to 100 and has been as high as 115.
 
#19,331
#19,331
05_never_again said:
It's not so much the volatility of it that makes those claims a bill of goods. It's that it is highly correlated with the performance of other risk assets.

It's been pitched as a hedge against inflation. It performed incredibly well during a long-term period of low inflation then had a nearly 80% drawdown during the 2021-22 inflationary period. It's been pitched as a hedge against external shocks, but it got smashed along with every other risk asset during COVID and even sells off along with other risk assets during short-term reactions to other shocks (like Russia invading Ukraine). It sold off incredibly sharply along with equities during the late 2018 taper tantrum selloff and the resulting fears about the economy going into recession, despite it being pitched as having no connection to those risks.
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Decentralized in name only. Lol.

Welp, that aside, there's a glimmer of hope we close green today.
 
#19,332
#19,332
Looks like it’s come off the lows. Still in more cash/cash equivalents than I ever have been. About 50%+ at the moment.
 
#19,334
#19,334
Go aeiou said:
I've been cash 25%+ for a while. Also have several CDs. I try to buy when quality stocks take a significant dip.
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In some straight cash mmkt, a mmkt fund and still have some CD ladders maturing out. Been holding and adding gold (paper), although it’s not cash, since the summer also. Performed nicely. Other than that.. S&P 500 etf, large growth etf, total stock market index etf and good, boring dividend stocks, avg yield around 5% or so. Gotten much more conservative the past several months. My individual tech stocks I sold off after they rebounded nicely. I was probably too heavily concentrated in some of those for my time horizon now. I’ll let the fund managers do that work for me now. I can live with a little slower growth, capital preservation and a more risk off portfolio.
 
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#19,335
#19,335
Vol737 said:
Looks like it’s come off the lows. Still in more cash/cash equivalents than I ever have been. About 50%+ at the moment.
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I swear if we have a continuation of November I'm gonna just hang on to my div payers, cash out everything else, and consider rejoining the work force.

I hate working for other people but it's way less stressful.
 
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#19,336
#19,336
DinkinFlicka said:
I swear if we have a continuation of November I'm gonna just hang on to my div payers, cash out everything else, and consider rejoining the work force.

I hate working for other people but it's way less stressful.
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You mean working as an employee vs self employed? Must depend on what you are doing and how you make money. i.e. tips; managing employees; capital investment.....
 
#19,337
#19,337
Go aeiou said:
You mean working as an employee vs self employed? Must depend on what you are doing and how you make money. i.e. tips; managing employees; capital investment.....
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I was being cheeky. I do contract IT work these days.

Not sure I can stomach going back to a full time job unless I really get bored.
 
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#19,338
#19,338
05_never_again said:
Here we go again...equities being led lower by crypto. A retest of that low in BTC from 11/21 looks likely.

It is astonishing to me how so many in that community still run with the narrative that crypto is a "hedge" against anything. It's the epitome of a risk asset. Which is fine; I have nothing against that, but quit trying to pitch it as something that it clearly isn't.
Click to expand...
Well that was quite the reversal...
 
#19,339
#19,339
DinkinFlicka said:
I was being cheeky. I do contract IT work these days.

Not sure I can stomach going back to a full time job unless I really get bored.
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I was a CPA who worked in manufacturing accounting at a corrugated box company(huge in the paper business) in TN. Company auditors would come in and ask why we didn't make money. I showed them that we bought the paper from our own company and paid 130% as much as what we paid our competitors for the same paper. Crazy
Quit and did tax consulting for manufacturing companies. Self employed.
 
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#19,344
#19,344
DinkinFlicka said:
Yeah. Money was great but it was taking years off my life and lower back. I wanted to hire a GM, but my partners wanted an owner there. We couldn't come to an agreement so I took a generous buyout.
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Gotcha. Seems like I vaguely remember you mentioning that previously.
 
#19,349
#19,349
Charlie Munger’s 7 wealth destroyers:

1). Whole Life Insurance
2). Investment Real Estate
3). Gold
4). Actively managed funds (mutual funds, hedge funds, private equity)
5). Cryptocurrency
6). Bonds
7). New cars / luxury cars

 
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#19,350
#19,350
Arguments against:

Whole Life Insurance. Instead buy term life and buy shares in index funds with the difference. Insurance is not an investment.

Investment real estate. This one was interesting since it creates positive cash flow. Most of that comes from being a tax shelter though. Taxes. Insurance. Basic maintenance. Major repairs. It costs a lot to own.

Gold. Not an income generating asset. Plus there are costs to own it.

Actively managed investments. The fees destroy investment returns.

Crypto. It’s not being used very much as a productive asset. Wealth creation is basically finding somebody else to pay more for it than you did.

Bonds. Taxes and inflation cause bonds to deteriorate in value. If inflation is 3%, interest on the bonds are 4%, and taxes are 30%… check the math. Interedt after tax is 2.8%. With inflation at 3% you’re losing 0.2% of value per year.
 
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