7 wins a year starting next year

#76
#76
deatojl said:
In what way exactly? What would you say is the more accurate predictor? The fact we will have won at or very near 10 games per year with his defense in place over a four year span or your fear that we will no longer be able to win more than 7 games if he continues to be here?
As a side note, I make no excuses for the performance of the defense this season. I also am not at all pleased with the overall performance of the defense this season. I can, however, use rational thought to see that we have been able to win games at a high rate even when our defense has not been up to par.
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Here’s what I feel very comfortable saying: UT has the offense to do it, but will not win the SEC or an NC with Banks or Martinez on the staff. Defense wins championships. Exhibit A is what tOSU did to us last season.

Edit: S&C coach has to go as well. Softest team in the SEC when it comes to being physical.
 
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#77
#77
In looking at next year's schedule, I think it is reasonable to expect wins over:
Furman
Kennesaw St
@Georgia Tech(without Haynes King)
@Arkansas(without Taylen Green and with a new HC)
Auburn(with a new head coach)
Kentucky
@Vandy(without Diego Pavia)
That's 7 wins right there.

I also think it is reasonable to think we have a good chance to win the following games:
@South Carolina
LSU(with a new head coach)

I think we should have at least a fighter's chance to beat Alabama and/or Texas at home.

I think @ Texas A&M will be a tough game. How tough? Who knows at this point. Will Marcel Reed go to the draft? Who will be returning for them? Who will be returning for us? Who does each team get out of the portal?

Who really knows what next year is going to look like, but to say we lose at least 4 to 5 games is a bit of a stretch.
 
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#78
#78
Hairy Vols said:
I have never gone into any situation in my life assuming I would lose. I do not care how high the odds are stacked against me. And I would never ignore a comment like yours. People who lean into self deprecation in a world already full of negativity are the ones who need to be spoken to the most. Believe it or not I am trying to help you see things clearer and understand more. You do not have to stay negative just to stay negative. You can choose to be a happy and smiling person if you want to be. Let me help you become that person.
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I appreciate it, thanks
 
#80
#80
SubVet676 said:
Here’s what I feel very comfortable saying: UT has the offense to do it, but will not win the SEC or an NC with Banks or Martinez on the staff. Defense wins championships. Exhibit A is what tOSU did to us last season.

Edit: S&C coach has to go as well. Softest team in the SEC when it comes to being physical.
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I would agree that it is a near certainty that we will not win the conference or national championship unless we see a good bit of improvement defensively. The stats bear that out. Every team since 2020 to win the natty has had a top 10 scoring defense. The only outlier really over the last decade has been 2019 LSU, who finished 31st in scoring defense. There is a very big difference between winning a conference and/or national championship and being a 7 win team, though. At this moment, with not having a clue what next year's roster is going to be yet, I would feel pretty comfortable saying we will likely win 8-10 regular season games next year with the schedule we have. If we can improve enough defensively to keep our average ppg allowed to between 20-25 points, I would move that range to 9-11 wins. We would have to have everything fall into place to go undefeated, which is unlikely.
 
#82
#82
deatojl said:
I would agree that it is a near certainty that we will not win the conference or national championship unless we see a good bit of improvement defensively. The stats bear that out. Every team since 2020 to win the natty has had a top 10 scoring defense. The only outlier really over the last decade has been 2019 LSU, who finished 31st in scoring defense. There is a very big difference between winning a conference and/or national championship and being a 7 win team, though. At this moment, with not having a clue what next year's roster is going to be yet, I would feel pretty comfortable saying we will likely win 8-10 regular season games next year with the schedule we have. If we can improve enough defensively to keep our average ppg allowed to between 20-25 points, I would move that range to 9-11 wins. We would have to have everything fall into place to go undefeated, which is unlikely.
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I think we lose 4 next year
 
#83
#83
Rocky Top T said:
If Brazzell doesn't catch the ball on 4th down at Miss St on the game tying score
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Okay, let's say he didn't. That still wouldn't have guaranteed a loss as we have no idea how the rest of the game would have played out. That's just like saying if we don't give up to fumble return TD against Oklahoma, we would have won that game so that means we were one play from beating Oklahoma.
 
#86
#86
DirtyDawg said:
The whole state is just beautiful, with the checkers, the white, the orange, the 100,000 people! Just beautiful, the Dollywood, can’t forget the Dollywood, with the one and the two, they are both just beautiful! (Said in a Trump voice)😂
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Still trying to suck up to us so we won’t kick you off of our site 😃
 
#87
#87
BernardKingGOAT said:
It wasn't the game tying score. I was during the drive. He did catch it
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And there was also still five minutes left in the game at that point. After that catch, we finished the drive, stopped MSU on defense, got the ball back and took it to their 44 yard line. Bad clock management is the only thing that kept us from having another scoring drive after that drive was finished. But, yeah, that one play kept us from losing.
 
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#91
#91
DirtyDawg said:
What a weak a$$ thread! Y’all know better than this BS. TN is a missed FG away from beating GA this season, that’s not nothing. Bad luck, but that’s just football. Competing with a Kirby Smart GA team isn’t nothing. Sounds like I’m being arrogant, but it’s true. Today, and for the moment, if you can compete with GA, you have the potential to beat anyone. But go on and run off the best HC you’ve had in 20 years. See where that gets you.
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How many games has GA been behind until late in the game this year? Everybody has competed with GA.....that statement isn't saying what you think it is.
 
#92
#92
I guess you can predict the future?

I think ALL SEC teams will find it difficult to win as many games as they currently win each season. Fans of EVERY SEC team are going to have to adjust to the fact that an undefeated or 1 loss season will not be attainable every year. 9 and 10 win seasons will become great years.

As for your math, adding 1 more SEC team does not push an average of 9 to 7. We'll win that game at least half of the time so the average will still be in the same range as today.
 
#93
#93
And I swear some of you just like to complain. I get it. You don't like the coach, never have. He could go undefeated and you would complain that we don't win by enough points.
 
#94
#94
KKruzVFL said:
7 wins a year will be the average for this coaching staff. The schedules get brutal and I don’t see us beating any good teams on a consistent basis. Fair or not Heupel will be on the hot seat next year watch
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We've beat good teams before and we'll do it again. We just haven't beaten any so far this year. I understand the disappointment because I'm disappointed when you look at who are wins are against but your post is over the top.
 
#98
#98
unfrozencvmanvol said:
I don't share OP's take on Heupel but how do we know Faizon will be any different than Nico? As if we should need a reminder, 5 star quarterbacks are not a sure thing. Hopefully, he will perform as advertised. My preference with QB's from now on would be to go out and get the best, experienced portal QB we can, every year or every other year and quit breaking the bank for high school kids.
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Sooner or later we HAVE to hit on a high school quarterback. We've lived off transfers. Just statistically speaking we have got to be due.
 
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#99
#99
DirtyDawg said:
You can’t? Sure you can, and it’s a valid point, but nothing to do with what I was trying to say. I was referring to the potential of the team, not the consistency. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe GA just played down to another inferior opponent like they too often do, but it certainly didn’t feel like that when the TN offense was going up and down the field at will.

Perhaps there does need to be coaching changes, but certainly not at HC. You guys are and have been a very good team since CJH arrived. Haven’t gotten to the extreme top yet, but certainly much better than before. It’s possible that CJH is another Mark Richt. Very good but never quite good enough, but it’s also possible that things just haven’t clicked perfectly yet. It almost always takes a bit of luck along with a great team to win a championship. My Dawgs were extremely good in both championship seasons, but there was also a bit of luck involved in both.
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Pretty sad that I have to agree with a Georgia fan of some the dufuses in this thread. Yet, here we are.
 
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#100
#100
deatojl said:
In looking at next year's schedule, I think it is reasonable to expect wins over:
Furman
Kennesaw St
@Georgia Tech(without Haynes King)
@Arkansas(without Taylen Green and with a new HC)
Auburn(with a new head coach)
Kentucky
@Vandy(without Diego Pavia)
That's 7 wins right there.

I also think it is reasonable to think we have a good chance to win the following games:
@South Carolina
LSU(with a new head coach)

I think we should have at least a fighter's chance to beat Alabama and/or Texas at home.

I think @ Texas A&M will be a tough game. How tough? Who knows at this point. Will Marcel Reed go to the draft? Who will be returning for them? Who will be returning for us? Who does each team get out of the portal?

Who really knows what next year is going to look like, but to say we lose at least 4 to 5 games is a bit of a stretch.
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I agree with everything you said and the big factor is, will whoever the QB is for the Vols, will he be dynamic. I think our receivers are elite enough if we have a QB that is savvy enough to throw it up and the 50/50 ball favors these receivers. Joey did that, Nico threw a flatter ball, less interceptions & less rewards but if you have dog receivers you let them out dog the DBs.. Ohio State has been doing that last 2 years to perfection.
Will a Freshman QB or 1st year starter have the fortitude to play that way, is the question. If not the receivers numbers will go down IMO. Its so far out to know all the answers but I mostly agree with your takes without a crystal ball looking forward.
 
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