My Thoughts on Bye Week, After Sleeping on it

[sami]

I didn't do one of these after the Oklahoma game. Too much toxicity in here from all of the woodwork creepers showing up. Funny how that happens after a loss. But I thought I'd post some general observations about where we are. I'll start with the big one.

Josh Heupel is building a program. That's not the same thing as building a team. It's easy to get caught up in the short term (I do it too). But long term, this is about building a program. Recruiting is gradually improving each year as we get further removed from the Era of Dysfunction of 2008-2020. The committed class is the best of the Heupel era. The 2025 class (current freshmen) is the 2nd best. I believe we have one more season of dealing with NCAA sanctions, so those extra non-contacts and non-recruiting weekends we're having to deal with will only be around for one more year. One would expect that will help recruiting further, along with the Adidas deal.

Building a program isn't instantaneous, even if Heupel gave us that impression in 2022. That was a fun year with the benefit of some talented guys who'd been through a lot and broke through. But the nothingness of the recruiting classes from 2018-2021 caught up with us. Most of those guys transferred out when Pruitt was fired and the NCAA came calling (if they hadn't already) and it left a talent void. The staff has done a good job of masking it with the portal and with better classes since then, but that's a lot to overcome in the SEC. Even in spite of that, we're an upper level SEC program...a very good one. But not an elite one. That's the next step and it's the most difficult one.

This will be a good roster in 2026. QB will be the big question. I don't like the idea of rolling with a true freshman, even one as talented as Faizon. GMac needs to be ready. But if we plug needs (Safety, Star, DL) in the portal as we should, and young guys develop as they should, that will be a talented roster. We'll be in contention for a CFP spot again. Then, I think 2027 will be a big year.

Guys like Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, and Kirby Smart gave everyone the illusion that program-building is instantaneous. But those guys took over MUCH better rosters and weren't dealing with the NCAA handicaps. A better comparison is Dabo Swinney, who, to be fair, wasn't doing it in the SEC, but rather, a much softer ACC. Nonetheless, it took until Dabo's 8th season before they were truly a national championship contender. They lost the NC game that year to Alabama, then won it all the next year. Before that, there was a term people used to describe a program that seemed to have talent, but always failed to meet expectations..."Clemsoning." Y'all remember that? Eventually, Dabo built the program up to make people forget about that term. But it took time. 8 years. Heupel just completed his 5th.

That's the goal here...to get to elite with a sustainable, well-built program. And I think we have the coach to do it, using a similar formula. Like Dabo, Heupel isn't signing a top 3 class every year. This staff is evaluating for a certain fit and culture. And they're good at it. Heupel isn't relying on stopgap measures, flipping the roster every year via the portal. They don't get portal guys just to get portal guys. Consequently, their hit rate in the portal has been very high...especially on guys who weren't considered "elite" portal transfers. They evaluate. They find the right fit. And they find talent where others may not see it.

Herbstreit is right...we have the right guy. He's highly competitive, a great offensive mind, relates to players, is a fantastic leader, and is highly respected. He wants to be at Tennessee. And he does it the right way. Those of us who are patient will be rewarded soon enough.

Some other thoughts, some of which I've addressed in other discussions:

-It's funny how some transfers, when they happen, you think they'll be a big deal (then end up not being a big deal) and others you think won't be a big deal (then end up being a big deal). When Nico transferred, obviously, we thought, "well there goes the season." Turns out, it was a good thing and we upgraded with Aguilar. When Christian Harrison transferred, I thought it sucked for depth purposes, but it wasn't a huge loss. Man, was I wrong. Harrison would've been huge this year. He's played very well for Cincinnati. But given how Boo flopped this year, Harrison could've been the Star we needed (he was very good last year), allowing McMurray to stay at outside CB (where he was good last year as a backup), and that would have improved both of those positions.

Similarly, I don't think we understood how big of a loss Will Brooks would be. Not only did he make crucial plays and put himself in the right position, but he put others in the right position too. He was a huge loss.

-Preseason expectations are always wrong. Every year, it seems a perceived weakness ends up being a strength. This year it was QB and WR. Last year it was the secondary. And every year, it seems like a perceived strength ends up a weakness. This year, it was the defense as a whole. Last year, it was Nico and the WRs. Maybe we should keep this in mind when we see how our coaches approach the portal...they know what they have and what they need better than we (or the media) do.

Also, schedules never end up what you think they'll be. Last year, Oklahoma was thought to be a huge game. They finished 6-6. This year, Florida hasn't been nearly what folks expected. Mississippi State is probably a little better. Oklahoma, when Mateer was healthy, was definitely better than expected.

Point being, preseason expectations won't stop being a thing. But I'll keep taking them with a huge grain of salt.

-I'm over the idea that the rest of the season doesn't matter because the CFP is not a realistic possibility. If we beat Florida in the Swamp, I'll be over the moon. I don't care how bad they are. I don't care if they've quit. I hate them and we haven't won down there since 2003. We need to get that monkey off our backs. We won't get another chance for 4 years. It's time. Likewise, I'll celebrate beating Vanderbilt. This is the best Vandy team of my lifetime. I live in Nashville. Pavia and Lea have run their mouths. I wanna stomp them.

This is still college football. It's special. Every Saturday is special. And Tennessee Vols college football is even specialer. I'm going to enjoy every minute until the season is over.

Get out of here with all those facts and that logic and common sense. Your kind isn't welcome here.

 

[NighthawkVol]

I think we would be crazy to get rid of Heupel. You are kidding yourself though to attribute any weight to the consideration of "NCAA sanctions". In the era of NIL scholarships are essentially meaningless and the impact of any "scholarship reductions" is marginal at best. Any player can be given an NIL deal that is worth more than a scholarship many times over. The NIL era has encompassed most of Heupel's tenure. All but the first 5 months or so of his first off-season. The transfer portal has been around his whole tenure. Without those things it would have taken years to dig out of the craphole Dooley-Butch-Pruitt left us in. Heupel must be given credit for pushing the right buttons though. I think his best days are ahead. We were never going to be a championship level team in 2025 (at least as soon as it became apparent Nico would not evolve into a Heisman type player). We were a Top 20 roster with a very thin margin of error to make the playoffs. We lost some close games though and thwarted that. Some years that happens. Put on more steam.

The sanctions weren’t just scholarship reductions. The additional non-contact periods and limits on recruiting weekends are a big deal. You’re kidding yourself if you don’t think so. We lost Hayward last cycle as a direct result of having to go dark on him during an additional non-contact period while Florida courted him.

And yes, the loss of scholarships also hurts. Having to allocate NIL resources when you otherwise wouldn’t means you’re having to spend NIL money that others are not. And since our NIL funds aren’t unlimited, yes, that matters.

 

[NighthawkVol]

Great post. I agree with you 100% on this. For me, right now in College Football, the elite teams are programs that have been built over the years and plug portal players where a player transferred out and their is a hole (or two) that needs to be filled. I do not think we are yet to the roster turnover year in and year out, yet. I still see programs being built from great recruiting of HS players and then some portal players.
If we were to look at the elite teams, the really elite teams that are there year in and year out they are built this way, not built be portal players every year. We might get to that point, but I do not think we are there yet. As always. GBO!

Right. People saying that there are no such things as a program anymore are wrong. Yes, there are certain schools that flip their roster almost every year with portal players. But Florida State is failing miserably while doing that. Ole Miss hasn’t made a CFP.

Schools like Ohio State and Alabama are actual programs. They recruit, develop, and use the portal to plug holes. Their main focus is maintaining their roster of recruited players (at least the ones they want to keep).

Heupel is doing the same thing. He’s not going into the portal to land splash names. We’re focusing on keeping the guys we have and believe in (like Matthews and Gibson this past offseason) while plugging immediate needs from the portal with solid evaluations.

That’s a program.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

The sanctions weren’t just scholarship reductions. The additional non-contact periods and limits on recruiting weekends are a big deal. You’re kidding yourself if you don’t think so. We lost Hayward last cycle as a direct result of having to go dark on him during an additional non-contact period while Florida courted him.

And yes, the loss of scholarships also hurts. Having to allocate NIL resources when you otherwise wouldn’t means you’re having to spend NIL money that others are not. And since our NIL funds aren’t unlimited, yes, that matters.

You have to admit that sanctions aren't the albatross hanging around a program's neck that they would have been even 10 years ago. In the historical context, if you say "NCAA sanctions" to a college football fan, you immediately conjur memories of a long track record of measures that were invariably program crippling. It just isn't that way anymore. This has been the best time ever in the history of the sport to be "sanctioned". The NCAA is a toothless tiger, incapable of enforcing its rules. We have had a historically unmatched opportunity these past several years with NIL and the transfer portal to plan and take steps to neutralize the impact of their judgments. I give Heupel credit for planning well but the fact is he's got tools to combat sanctions that coaches in the past couldn't dream of. It's apples and oranges compared to years ago. We aren't Florida in 1990, for example, about to really have some huge restrictor plate removed. I otherwise largely agree with your OP.

 

[Rickyvol77]

There’s a lot of problems with the program’s trajectory under currently, & while what you said is a problem of sorts, it’s far from being the main problem. He’s got a lot of work to do & tough decisions to make if he’s going to ultimately be successful in the long run here.

The program regressed in a major way this season. Year 5 of his tenure & basically the first year where it’s all his guys out there contributing. It certainly doesn’t look good & he’s lost a lot of goodwill he’s built thus far. It’s gonna get interesting when he loses at UF(again & to a historically bad UF team in serious turmoil with an interim HC). And, then to little brother Vanderbilt in Knoxville to end the season. 7-5 with zero impressive or quality wins on the year is really, really ugly.

"when he loses to Florida and Vandy"

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

"when he loses to Florida and Vandy"

I really don't see us losing to both. I can see us beating both or dropping one. If we lose one, my guess would be we somehow lose to Florida but find a way to beat Vandy.

 

[Vols410]

I didn't do one of these after the Oklahoma game. Too much toxicity in here from all of the woodwork creepers showing up. Funny how that happens after a loss. But I thought I'd post some general observations about where we are. I'll start with the big one.

Josh Heupel is building a program. That's not the same thing as building a team. It's easy to get caught up in the short term (I do it too). But long term, this is about building a program. Recruiting is gradually improving each year as we get further removed from the Era of Dysfunction of 2008-2020. The committed class is the best of the Heupel era. The 2025 class (current freshmen) is the 2nd best. I believe we have one more season of dealing with NCAA sanctions, so those extra non-contacts and non-recruiting weekends we're having to deal with will only be around for one more year. One would expect that will help recruiting further, along with the Adidas deal.

Building a program isn't instantaneous, even if Heupel gave us that impression in 2022. That was a fun year with the benefit of some talented guys who'd been through a lot and broke through. But the nothingness of the recruiting classes from 2018-2021 caught up with us. Most of those guys transferred out when Pruitt was fired and the NCAA came calling (if they hadn't already) and it left a talent void. The staff has done a good job of masking it with the portal and with better classes since then, but that's a lot to overcome in the SEC. Even in spite of that, we're an upper level SEC program...a very good one. But not an elite one. That's the next step and it's the most difficult one.

This will be a good roster in 2026. QB will be the big question. I don't like the idea of rolling with a true freshman, even one as talented as Faizon. GMac needs to be ready. But if we plug needs (Safety, Star, DL) in the portal as we should, and young guys develop as they should, that will be a talented roster. We'll be in contention for a CFP spot again. Then, I think 2027 will be a big year.

Guys like Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, and Kirby Smart gave everyone the illusion that program-building is instantaneous. But those guys took over MUCH better rosters and weren't dealing with the NCAA handicaps. A better comparison is Dabo Swinney, who, to be fair, wasn't doing it in the SEC, but rather, a much softer ACC. Nonetheless, it took until Dabo's 8th season before they were truly a national championship contender. They lost the NC game that year to Alabama, then won it all the next year. Before that, there was a term people used to describe a program that seemed to have talent, but always failed to meet expectations..."Clemsoning." Y'all remember that? Eventually, Dabo built the program up to make people forget about that term. But it took time. 8 years. Heupel just completed his 5th.

That's the goal here...to get to elite with a sustainable, well-built program. And I think we have the coach to do it, using a similar formula. Like Dabo, Heupel isn't signing a top 3 class every year. This staff is evaluating for a certain fit and culture. And they're good at it. Heupel isn't relying on stopgap measures, flipping the roster every year via the portal. They don't get portal guys just to get portal guys. Consequently, their hit rate in the portal has been very high...especially on guys who weren't considered "elite" portal transfers. They evaluate. They find the right fit. And they find talent where others may not see it.

Herbstreit is right...we have the right guy. He's highly competitive, a great offensive mind, relates to players, is a fantastic leader, and is highly respected. He wants to be at Tennessee. And he does it the right way. Those of us who are patient will be rewarded soon enough.

Some other thoughts, some of which I've addressed in other discussions:

-It's funny how some transfers, when they happen, you think they'll be a big deal (then end up not being a big deal) and others you think won't be a big deal (then end up being a big deal). When Nico transferred, obviously, we thought, "well there goes the season." Turns out, it was a good thing and we upgraded with Aguilar. When Christian Harrison transferred, I thought it sucked for depth purposes, but it wasn't a huge loss. Man, was I wrong. Harrison would've been huge this year. He's played very well for Cincinnati. But given how Boo flopped this year, Harrison could've been the Star we needed (he was very good last year), allowing McMurray to stay at outside CB (where he was good last year as a backup), and that would have improved both of those positions.

Similarly, I don't think we understood how big of a loss Will Brooks would be. Not only did he make crucial plays and put himself in the right position, but he put others in the right position too. He was a huge loss.

-Preseason expectations are always wrong. Every year, it seems a perceived weakness ends up being a strength. This year it was QB and WR. Last year it was the secondary. And every year, it seems like a perceived strength ends up a weakness. This year, it was the defense as a whole. Last year, it was Nico and the WRs. Maybe we should keep this in mind when we see how our coaches approach the portal...they know what they have and what they need better than we (or the media) do.

Also, schedules never end up what you think they'll be. Last year, Oklahoma was thought to be a huge game. They finished 6-6. This year, Florida hasn't been nearly what folks expected. Mississippi State is probably a little better. Oklahoma, when Mateer was healthy, was definitely better than expected.

Point being, preseason expectations won't stop being a thing. But I'll keep taking them with a huge grain of salt.

-I'm over the idea that the rest of the season doesn't matter because the CFP is not a realistic possibility. If we beat Florida in the Swamp, I'll be over the moon. I don't care how bad they are. I don't care if they've quit. I hate them and we haven't won down there since 2003. We need to get that monkey off our backs. We won't get another chance for 4 years. It's time. Likewise, I'll celebrate beating Vanderbilt. This is the best Vandy team of my lifetime. I live in Nashville. Pavia and Lea have run their mouths. I wanna stomp them.

This is still college football. It's special. Every Saturday is special. And Tennessee Vols college football is even specialer. I'm going to enjoy every minute until the season is over.

One of the very best posts I've ever read on this site, and I'm 100% in agreement. Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

 

[Vols410]

The problem is there is no team building. With the transfer portal, everybody is patching holes each year.

Teams patch holes every year, but team building is still a thing. Every year, teams spend more money on their own roster retention as opposed to the portal. IMO, the successful programs in the long run are going to be those, not the portal darlings.

 

[NighthawkVol]

Teams patch holes every year, but team building is still a thing. Every year, teams spend more money on their own roster retention as opposed to the portal. IMO, the successful programs in the long run are going to be those, not the portal darlings.

Exactly.

Further, when this staff goes to the portal, they prefer guys with multiple years of eligibility, rather than 1-year mercenaries. Because, again, it's about bringing in guys to your program and building continuity, not a roster flip. There have been one or two exceptions due to extreme need (Aguilar and Castles come to mind), but for the most part, they've targeted guys from the portal who will be here 2-3 years. Another reflection of Heupel's desire for program-building.

 

[NighthawkVol]

You have to admit that sanctions aren't the albatross hanging around a program's neck that they would have been even 10 years ago. In the historical context, if you say "NCAA sanctions" to a college football fan, you immediately conjur memories of a long track record of measures that were invariably program crippling. It just isn't that way anymore. This has been the best time ever in the history of the sport to be "sanctioned". The NCAA is a toothless tiger, incapable of enforcing its rules. We have had a historically unmatched opportunity these past several years with NIL and the transfer portal to plan and take steps to neutralize the impact of their judgments. I give Heupel credit for planning well but the fact is he's got tools to combat sanctions that coaches in the past couldn't dream of. It's apples and oranges compared to years ago. We aren't Florida in 1990, for example, about to really have some huge restrictor plate removed. I otherwise largely agree with your OP.

I agree with that. SAnctions are not what they once were. But they are still something and they still have an effect (as I pointed out with Hayward...which is the only one we actually know about).

Also, the THREAT of the NCAA cloud was hanging over UT for the first 2-3 years of Heupel's tenure. We know for a fact that opponents were using it against Tennessee in recruiting (Price and others reported it, because recruits told them), telling recruits that Tennessee was going to be ineligible for postseason. That threat hung over Tennessee and was used against the Vols during the recruitment of Heupel's first few recruiting classes (I believe the NCAA's ruling was handed down in summer of 2023)...guys who would be upperclassmen now.

So yeah, both can be true...sanctions aren't what they once were, but they're still something. And the threat itself was a big deal. When everyone transferred out in 2020, leaving Heupel with 57 scholarship players in Year 1, that was something. And not all of those guys left because there was a coaching change. Many left because the NCAA was looming. Of course, others left because they wee complicit. Nonetheless, that's a tough spot to start from and he handled it as well as could be inagined.

 

[Tin Man]

There are 136 FBS programs. CJH has Tennessee consistently in the top 25. In my way of thinking, this is a better position from which to make a run for a championship.

Still, there are self-proclaimed fans who assert that a true championship caliber coach will deliver that championship within the first five years. Can’t do that, fire ‘em and start over with a new coach.

From where are these “true championship caliber coaches” coming? The pool of 136 FBS coaches? The 129 FCS programs? The 162 D2 programs? Europe’s pro soccer leagues?

Come to VN. Vent your spleen unfiltered. But, when it comes down to it, there is no magic formula, no right amount of cash that will deliver a Saban/B*** dynasty. Luck, fate has a hand to play.

So, we support our Vols over the years and hope that these coaches and these players will achieve the illusive championship. For one, I feel good that Tennessee has Danny White and Josh Heupel at this time and chose to hope that a Tennessee team becomes champions during their tenure, maybe even more than one.

Yes, college football is hope eternal, and there’s greater depth to that than first appearance.

 

[camp_steveo]

 

[sami]

Right. People saying that there are no such things as a program anymore are wrong. Yes, there are certain schools that flip their roster almost every year with portal players. But Florida State is failing miserably while doing that. Ole Miss hasn’t made a CFP.

Schools like Ohio State and Alabama are actual programs. They recruit, develop, and use the portal to plug holes. Their main focus is maintaining their roster of recruited players (at least the ones they want to keep).

Heupel is doing the same thing. He’s not going into the portal to land splash names. We’re focusing on keeping the guys we have and believe in (like Matthews and Gibson this past offseason) while plugging immediate needs from the portal with solid evaluations.

That’s a program.

I'm not a fan of comps to pro sports, but the idea of building a lasting winner there is still centered around the draft being your core and free agency filling in the holes. That generally doesn't happen overnight, despite what many fans believe.

The Eagles are a perfect example of this, as were the Chiefs during their SB runs. Another similarity is the need to find the right QB for your system. If Faizon turns out to be a stud, it will be like a launching pad into elitism.

 

[NighthawkVol]

I'm not a fan of comps to pro sports, but the idea of building a lasting winner there is still centered around the draft being your core and free agency filling in the holes. That generally doesn't happen overnight, despite what many fans believe.

The Eagles are a perfect example of this, as were the Chiefs during their SB runs. Another similarity is the need to find the right QB for your system. If Faizon turns out to be a stud, it will be like a launching pad into elitism.

Yep. Similar to Deshaun Watson for Clemson. They had had a few good ones before him (Tahj Boyd, mainly), but he was that breakthrough elite QB, who took them to the next level.

 

[Vols410]

I'm not a fan of comps to pro sports, but the idea of building a lasting winner there is still centered around the draft being your core and free agency filling in the holes. That generally doesn't happen overnight, despite what many fans believe.

The Eagles are a perfect example of this, as were the Chiefs during their SB runs. Another similarity is the need to find the right QB for your system. If Faizon turns out to be a stud, it will be like a launching pad into elitism.

Another thing the best teams do really well in salary cap sports is carefully assigning resources to the right positions.

I think Heupel does that as well as anyone. Look where the money is going and you'll see QB, WR, OT, and EDGE at the top of our commitment lists.

 

[Flipdaddy]

Teams patch holes every year, but team building is still a thing. Every year, teams spend more money on their own roster retention as opposed to the portal. IMO, the successful programs in the long run are going to be those, not the portal darlings.

I hope you’re right.