Tennessee's biggest problem is SoS

#76
#76
Rickyvol77 said:
2026 schedule
Furman
at Georgia Tech
Kennesaw State
Auburn
at South Carolina
Alabama
Kentucky
at Arkansas
Texas
at Texas A&M
LSU
at Vanderbilt

2027
Tennessee State
Georgia Tech
Western Michigan
Mississippi State
at Missouri
Florida
at Alabama
at Kentucky
Ole Miss
at Oklahoma
at Georgia
Vanderbilt

2028
West Virginia (Charlotte)
TBD
Texas A&M
at LSU
Arkansas
Alabama
at Auburn
South Carolina
at Texas
TBD
Kentucky
at Vanderbilt

except for 2027 which is a difficult road schedule, these aren't 8-4 schedules
Click to expand...
The 2026 schedule is shaping up really nicely. It feels like we'll be getting USCe, LSU, Auburn, and Arkansas on downward trends. GT and Vandy both are replacing the QB that's meant everything to their respective programs as well.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rickyvol77
#77
#77
rdk4121 said:
If you somehow think our strength of schedule is any worse than any of the other conferences we're competing against, then you aren't paying attention. Arkansas and Mississippi state would be top 3 teams in the ACC and Big 12. Mississippi state already beat the 3rd best team in the big 12. Outside of the top 3 teams in the big 10, there's absolutely no one of note either.

If we win out, we're in. We finished 8th in the CFP poll last year (in the regular season). We're not dropping 5 spots with the same record with more or less the same schedule.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure strength of schedule would take into consideration how good Miss St would be in another conference, but rather their overall performance where they are.

It's probably unlikely, but they really could go winless in the SEC. Normally an odd thing to say, but their best chance may be against Texas this weekend.

After that, they are at Arkansas, home vs UGA, at Mizzou, then they finish up with Ole Miss.

Anywhoo...it feels like the playoffs aren't something we need to worry about, but I sure hope I'm wrong.
 
#78
#78
UTFranklinVol said:
let's just make the assumption that Tennessee wins out the rest of the year and finishes 10-2. not only do we need a lot of help from other teams but we also have this issue of strength of schedule to contend with.

So far our best win of the year is on the road against 4-3 Mississippi State. All the other wins come against teams with losing and 2 fired head coaches (and we aren't even done playing teams that fired their coach).

And projecting ahead:
1. Kentucky - at most has 2 wins left on its schedule maybe 3 by a miracle and will have a losing record

2. Oklahoma - unless Oklahoma gets totally embarrassed on their home field by the fighting Lane Kiffins, they will be ranked when we play them, however they still have to play Ole Miss, Tennessee, Bama, Missouri and LSU who are all currently top 25 teams. Theres an extremely high probability that Oklahoma finishes the year unranked.

3. New Mexico State - will probably have a winning record but will do nothing for SoS

4. Florida - fired HC, will end the year with a losing record in all likelihood.

5. Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt, yes Vanderbilt may be the ONLY ranked team with a winning record that the Vols beat in 2025 by the end of the season

If this ends up being the case (The Vols actually have to win all their games first) this may be our biggest enemy that prevents us from making the CFP. We would have lost the two games that would have given us any leverage at all with the selection committee.
Click to expand...
All we can control is win the rest of our games. Why worry about anything else?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rickyvol77, Woodlawn VOL and NighthawkVol
#79
#79
UTFranklinVol said:
let's just make the assumption that Tennessee wins out the rest of the year and finishes 10-2. not only do we need a lot of help from other teams but we also have this issue of strength of schedule to contend with.

So far our best win of the year is on the road against 4-3 Mississippi State. All the other wins come against teams with losing and 2 fired head coaches (and we aren't even done playing teams that fired their coach).

And projecting ahead:
1. Kentucky - at most has 2 wins left on its schedule maybe 3 by a miracle and will have a losing record

2. Oklahoma - unless Oklahoma gets totally embarrassed on their home field by the fighting Lane Kiffins, they will be ranked when we play them, however they still have to play Ole Miss, Tennessee, Bama, Missouri and LSU who are all currently top 25 teams. Theres an extremely high probability that Oklahoma finishes the year unranked.

3. New Mexico State - will probably have a winning record but will do nothing for SoS

4. Florida - fired HC, will end the year with a losing record in all likelihood.

5. Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt, yes Vanderbilt may be the ONLY ranked team with a winning record that the Vols beat in 2025 by the end of the season

If this ends up being the case (The Vols actually have to win all their games first) this may be our biggest enemy that prevents us from making the CFP. We would have lost the two games that would have given us any leverage at all with the selection committee.
Click to expand...
Re: Oklahoma. You're assuming they lose many of those games. They should beat Missouri and LSU. I'd pick them at home against Ole Miss too (OU is favored by 4.5). Lane has never won a big road game against a highly ranked opponent. So if Tennessee beats OU, that's quite possibly a win over an eventual 10-2 team (9-3 at worst) with some impressive wins on its own resume.

If Vandy keeps winning, that game could be a play-in to the playoffs. Missouri is the toughest game left on their schedule and it's in Nashville. Their next toughest game is at Texas and Texas kinda sucks. Good chance they come into Knoxville with only 1 loss, 2 at most.

If Tennessee can win out and go 10-2, those two wins will look impressive and we'll be in the CFP.
 
#80
#80
rdk4121 said:
They all can barely beat the bad teams in the ACC. Particularly Virginia, who will lose at least one in their bad schedule. If Georgia tech loses to Georgia and then in the ACC championship, who is their best win? A 3-4 Clemson team? Louisville might have the best shot since they at least beat Miami.
Click to expand...
😂 you're assuming an awful lot of losing by those ACC teams while at the same time assuming Tennessee is going to win out when Tennessee has a MUCH tougher final 5 games than any of those teams do.

if you're going to assume Tennessee wins out you have to at least give those teams the benefit of the doubt when their job is a hell of a lot easier than what Tennessee has to do!
 
#81
#81
NighthawkVol said:
Re: Oklahoma. You're assuming they lose many of those games. They should beat Missouri and LSU. I'd pick them at home against Ole Miss too (OU is favored by 4.5). Lane has never won a big road game against a highly ranked opponent. So if Tennessee beats OU, that's quite possibly a win over an eventual 10-2 team (9-3 at worst) with some impressive wins on its own resume.

If Vandy keeps winning, that game could be a play-in to the playoffs. Missouri is the toughest game left on their schedule and it's in Nashville. Their next toughest game is at Texas and Texas kinda sucks. Good chance they come into Knoxville with only 1 loss, 2 at most.

If Tennessee can win out and go 10-2, those two wins will look impressive and we'll be in the CFP.
Click to expand...

I agree if Oklahoma beats Ole Miss then it definitely opens the door for Tennessee.

but if I am just going to make the assumption that Tennessee wins out then I also have to assume ole miss also does the best they can otherwise it's not a real fair analysis. currently ole miss is higher ranked with fewer losses and an easier remaining schedule than Tennessee so it's not a far stretch to consider it.
 
#83
#83
savannahfan said:
You wish and hope.
Click to expand...
So Savannahfan pretty name by the way that’s my daughters name! What is wrong with wishing and hoping? I wish I would win the powerball and hope I live another day! I also would like to see Tennessee win another national championship before I die and hope my investments double over night🙏🏻see life is all about hoping and wishing 😃
 
  • Like
Reactions: savannahfan
#84
#84
UTFranklinVol said:
😂 you're assuming an awful lot of losing by those ACC teams while at the same time assuming Tennessee is going to win out when Tennessee has a MUCH tougher final 5 games than any of those teams do.

if you're going to assume Tennessee wins out you have to at least give those teams the benefit of the doubt when their job is a hell of a lot easier than what Tennessee has to do!
Click to expand...
Those ACC teams are awful. Virginia is barely scraping by, Miami just got thumped by Louisville, I think Georgia tech will be fine even if they lose to Georgia. Yes, the assumption is we win out of we're making the playoffs. That is the entire point of this thought exercise. If we don't win out, we really don't need to worry about any of these scenarios now do we?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rickyvol77
#85
#85
rdk4121 said:
Those ACC teams are awful. Virginia is barely scraping by, Miami just got thumped by Louisville, I think Georgia tech will be fine even if they lose to Georgia. Yes, the assumption is we win out of we're making the playoffs. That is the entire point of this thought exercise. If we don't win out, we really don't need to worry about any of these scenarios now do we?
Click to expand...
right. but if you assume the best for Tennessee why do you assume the worst for the ACC? you say they are awful but I would put the odds of any of those teams winning out as more likely than the Vols winning out.

so if you're trying to predict what the landscape looks like if the highly unlikely thing happens (Tennessee going 10-2) then you must also consider the much more likely schenario of at least 2 ACC teams doing well enough to get in with much easier paths to get there.
 
#86
#86
rdk4121 said:
The 2026 schedule is shaping up really nicely. It feels like we'll be getting USCe, LSU, Auburn, and Arkansas on downward trends. GT and Vandy both are replacing the QB that's meant everything to their respective programs as well.
Click to expand...
GT has a competent backup (Philo) who will start next year and Brent Key is an A+ coach. They will be a tough out.
 
#87
#87
UTFranklinVol said:
I agree if Oklahoma beats Ole Miss then it definitely opens the door for Tennessee.

but if I am just going to make the assumption that Tennessee wins out then I also have to assume ole miss also does the best they can otherwise it's not a real fair analysis. currently ole miss is higher ranked with fewer losses and an easier remaining schedule than Tennessee so it's not a far stretch to consider it.
Click to expand...
Why would you assume Ole Miss wins out just because we are operating under the assumption that Tennessee does?

Tennessee will be the favorite in every game it plays. Ole Miss is a 4.5 point underdog to Oklahoma.

If Tennessee wins out, that has nothing to do with what others do. A 10-2 Tennessee will get in.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Rickyvol77
#88
#88
Usaf redhorse said:
Again folks we aren’t making the playoffs and I’m fine with that because it hurts the program to get we embarrassed again on national TV like last year! The sooner you all come to grips with this reality the better! Just like in a toxic relationship the b sooner you admit she doesn’t love you anymore the better it will be for your physique!! 9-3 people 9-3 that’s the reality!
Click to expand...
Gawd are you a troll or something? I'm sure you're fun to be around.
 
#89
#89
NighthawkVol said:
Why would you assume Ole Miss wins out just because we are operating under the assumption that Tennessee does?

Tennessee will be the favorite in every game it plays. Ole Miss is a 4.5 point underdog to Oklahoma.

If Tennessee wins out, that has nothing to do with what others do. A 10-2 Tennessee will get in.
Click to expand...
because ole miss is the higher ranked team and will end up with a better record that OK in the end. I understand they are underdogs but just barely. it's basically a coin toss. if the game were in Oxford then OK would be the underdog.
 
#90
#90
UTFranklinVol said:
let's just make the assumption that Tennessee wins out the rest of the year and finishes 10-2. not only do we need a lot of help from other teams but we also have this issue of strength of schedule to contend with.

So far our best win of the year is on the road against 4-3 Mississippi State. All the other wins come against teams with losing and 2 fired head coaches (and we aren't even done playing teams that fired their coach).

And projecting ahead:
1. Kentucky - at most has 2 wins left on its schedule maybe 3 by a miracle and will have a losing record

2. Oklahoma - unless Oklahoma gets totally embarrassed on their home field by the fighting Lane Kiffins, they will be ranked when we play them, however they still have to play Ole Miss, Tennessee, Bama, Missouri and LSU who are all currently top 25 teams. Theres an extremely high probability that Oklahoma finishes the year unranked.

3. New Mexico State - will probably have a winning record but will do nothing for SoS

4. Florida - fired HC, will end the year with a losing record in all likelihood.

5. Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt, yes Vanderbilt may be the ONLY ranked team with a winning record that the Vols beat in 2025 by the end of the season

If this ends up being the case (The Vols actually have to win all their games first) this may be our biggest enemy that prevents us from making the CFP. We would have lost the two games that would have given us any leverage at all with the selection committee.
Click to expand...
Tennessee's biggest problems are the two losses.
 
#94
#94
GetEmVols said:
All we can control is win the rest of our games. Why worry about anything else?
Click to expand...
Exactly, all we can do is play the team on the schedule. From now on it has pretty much been divided as fair as can be. Nobody knew what teams were going to be like when scheduling was made for these games. Most folks with eyes can see there isn’t a lot of difference between most teams. And just watch Arky is going to pull a good upset yet. Their offense is legit, Miss St beat Arizona State and would be the majority of teams outside the sec. Arky has lost to Tennessee and A@M on the road by a field goal. Teams are evolving every week. It’s a marathon not a sprint. GBO
 
#98
#98
UTFranklinVol said:
because ole miss is the higher ranked team and will end up with a better record that OK in the end. I understand they are underdogs but just barely. it's basically a coin toss. if the game were in Oxford then OK would be the underdog.
Click to expand...
It isn’t in Oxford. It’s in Norman. And I don’t care who ends up with the better record. The discussion is about who can block UT from the CFP if UT goes 10-2.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Woodlawn VOL
#99
#99
NighthawkVol said:
It isn’t in Oxford. It’s in Norman. And I don’t care who ends up with the better record. The discussion is about who can block UT from the CFP if UT goes 10-2.
Click to expand...
correct. if UT is gonna win out then I want to assume ole miss also wins out. it's only fair. of Oklahoma beats them then it changes the discussion. if Oklahoma doesn't beat them, then what? I want to know the what. I want to know what happens if Tennessee wins out and all the other contenders win out. some people on this board say if Tennessee goes 10-2 they are in no matter what and I don't think I believe that without a lot of help.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.
Advertisement



Back
Top