Road to Playoffs IMO - Post UK

#1
Sandman Vol

Sandman Vol

No Colonel Sanders, you’re wrong!
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#1
Need to win out, obviously.

Probably need uga and bama to win out for sake of our resume. Need our opponents on schedule to win as many games as possible while dropping games to us or others enough to not beat us out for spots. It would be tremendous for msu, ark, vandy, Kentucky, uf to cause some chaos with the teams currently slated ahead of us.

If 4 SEC teams make it (only 3 made it last year: Texas, uga, Tennessee), need one of ole miss or tamu to fall short (or bama/uga i guess), preferably in a late season collapse type of way or bad losses. If only 3 make it in, we are a long shot.

Bama, uga, 2 of ole miss/tamu/Tennessee (IF 4 SEC make it in)

UGA or Bama would need to lose 2 and I just don’t see it.

Bama:
- LSU, Oklahoma, Auburn

UGA:
- UF, Miss St, Texas, GT

Others to fall:

Ole miss (UNLIKELY):
Needs to lose at least 1 (if late in season or to really bad team), or maybe 2.
- at Oklahoma or against Florida at home look like only realistic possiblities

TAMU (UNLIKELY):
Needs to lose AT LEAST 2, and timing probably matters. Late season would be best, or losses to bad teams.
- possibilities include: lsu, mizzou, Texas

Oklahoma (LIKELY):
Needs to lose to us AND 1 of:
- ole miss ✅, bama, Mizzou, lsu

Texas (LIKELY):
Needs to lose 1
- uga, Vandy, ark, tamu, msu

Vandy (LIKELY)
Needs to lose to us
- other potential losses to Mizzou, Texas, Auburn, kentucky

Mizzou (LIKELY): ✅
Need to lose 1
- Possibilities: Vandy✅, Tamu, OU, ark

Non-SEC Needs (WHO KNOWS):
- BYU lose a couple, so only one Big12 gets in (presumably TTU)
- multiple ACC teams lose a couple, enough that only 1 team from that conference gets in of Miami/GT/Louisville/UVA
- ND lose to Pitt

Post UK UPDATE:

Looks like we could win out and still miss out. Ole Miss and TAMU highly unlikely to have more than 2 losses, or any more for that matter (Ole Miss has 1 and TAMU has 0). Uga and Bama would win head to heads with us even if they lose another. I have my doubts about 4 SEC getting in but don’t see how possibly 5 could get it. I hope we win out, but do not expect us to make it even if we do. Really needed an Ole Miss or TAMU loss this weekend.
 
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#4
#4
praxite33 said:
We don't belong in the playoff to get embarrassed round one again
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I see where you're coming from but we wouldn't be embarrassed. Last year was a horrible draw and OSU decided to start playing once it mattered. We wouldn't be running into a buzz saw in the first round if we make it this year and that's IF we make it. Personally, I'd rather take my chances in the first round of the playoffs than play in the Outback Bowl where half of our players sit out anyway.
 
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#8
#8
SEC only got 3 in last year because of Notre Dame and the fact that the B1G had 4 teams in. And then there was the SMU loss to Clemson which got both ACC schools into the mix.

Right now, the B1G has OSU, IU and Oregon in the mix. Notre Dame may make their way back into the conversation. There needs to be no surprises for the SEC to get 4.
 
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#9
#9
praxite33 said:
We don't belong in the playoff to get embarrassed round one again
Click to expand...

Name the 12 teams that belong there instead of Tennessee.

I will agree if we make it, we don't want to be in a position where we have to go to OSU again - but I think that may be true of any of the teams that are selected.
 
#11
#11
We have to beat 2 really good teams at home and a sub par team at a place we haven't won at since I was in the 5th grade.

I hope we do all of that, but it's apparent to me and anyone with a pair of eyeballs that we won't make a deep run. Our defense is really bad. We commit 80-100 yards of penalties per game. We coach scared or call stuff that makes absolutely no sense. We can't tackle. We do just about everything a team can do to beat themselves week in and week out. So, get to the playoffs and do what? Imagine getting matched up with Ohio State again. How do you think that goes?

We are what we are. We can score some points but that's about it.
 
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#12
#12
We aren’t going to the playoffs forget that. We lose two or three more games. We may lose to Kentucky this Saturday they took Texas to overtime. Even if we win out at 10-2 i still don’t think we get in
 
#16
#16
Big Orange Captain said:
We aren’t going to the playoffs forget that. We lose two or three more games. We may lose to Kentucky this Saturday they took Texas to overtime. Even if we win out at 10-2 i still don’t think we get in
Click to expand...
Now UK is a danger 😂 can't wait to see your post about New Mexico St being tough
 
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#18
#18
Rickyvol77 said:
This is a silly take, 10-2 likely gets us in the playoffs and even 9-3 would get us the former Citrus Bowl
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9-3 would be a miracle given the schedule remaining. Just don't see this team being able to get to that record. 8 will be tough. 7 is where I see us.
 
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#19
#19
Rickyvol77 said:
This is a silly take, 10-2 likely gets us in the playoffs and even 9-3 would get us the former Citrus Bowl
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I'm really not trying to be a nega, but I just don't know if we could compete with any elite teams right now. I just don't think it's smart for recruiting to put that on national TV.
 
#20
#20
praxite33 said:
I'm really not trying to be a nega, but I just don't know if we could compete with any elite teams right now. I just don't think it's smart for recruiting to put that on national TV.
Click to expand...
Oklahoma and Florida games will decide our season.

10-2 and playoff bound or 9-3 and playing in Florida bowl game vs Michigan or Washington or Illinois or USC
 
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#21
#21
volfan102455 said:
SEC only got 3 in last year because of Notre Dame and the fact that the B1G had 4 teams in. And then there was the SMU loss to Clemson which got both ACC schools into the mix.

Right now, the B1G has OSU, IU and Oregon in the mix. Notre Dame may make their way back into the conversation. There needs to be no surprises for the SEC to get 4.
Click to expand...
ND locked up their slot when they beat USC yesterday. They will cruise thru the rest of their schedule and get in at 10-2.
 
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#22
#22
TheVolunteer002 said:
Wr have to beat 2 really good teams at home and a sub par team at a place we haven't won at since I was in the 5th grade.

I hope we do all of that, but it's apparent to me and anyone with a pair of eyeballs that we won't make a deep run. Our defense is really bad. We commit 80-100 yards of penalties per game. We coach scared or call stuff that makes absolutely no sense. We can't tackle. We do just about everything a team can do to beat themselves week in and week out. So, get to the playoffs and do what? Imagine getting matched up with Ohio State again. How do you think that goes?

We are what we are. We can score some points but that's about it.
Click to expand...
Pretty fair assessment. You watched the same team play last night as I did and it was awful.
 
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#23
#23
Adam Sandler said:
Need to win out, obviously.

Probably need uga and bama to win out for sake of our resume. Need our opponents on schedule to win as many games as possible while dropping games to us or others enough to not beat us out for spots. It would be tremendous for msu, ark, vandy, Kentucky, uf to cause some chaos with the teams currently slated ahead of us.

If 4 SEC teams make it (only 3 made it last year: Texas, uga, Tennessee), need one of ole miss or tamu to fall short, preferably in a late season collapse type of way or bad losses. If only 3 make it in, we are a long shot.

Bama, uga, 2 of ole miss/tamu/Tennessee (IF 4 SEC make it in)

Others to fall:

Ole miss (UNLIKELY):
Needs to lose at least 1 (if late in season or to really bad team), or maybe 2.
- at Oklahoma or against Florida at home look like only realistic possiblities

TAMU (50/50 Likelihood):
Needs to lose AT LEAST 2, and timing probably matters. Late season would be best, or losses to bad teams.
- possibilities include: lsu, mizzou, Texas

Oklahoma (LIKELY):
Needs to lose to us AND 1 of:
- ole miss, bama, Mizzou, lsu

Texas (LIKELY):
Needs to lose 1
- uga, Vandy, ark, tamu, msu

Vandy (LIKELY)
Needs to lose to us
- other potential losses to Mizzou, Texas, Auburn, kentucky

Mizzou (LIKELY):
Need to lose 1
- Possibilities: Vandy, Tamu, OU, ark
Click to expand...
We don’t really need Oklahoma and Vandy to lose. If we win out, we all have at least 2 losses and we’d have head to head.

Thanks for posting this. Good analysis.
 
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