Are we currently in a stock market bubble similar to the 1920s?

#28
#28
Bubbles are always forming. It’s a natural part of the market. AI and marijuana stocks have current bubbles and it’s well known.

But people will continue investing because the next Amazon will inevitably come out of the AI race and if you get in early you’ll win big.
 
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#31
#31
Matt2496 said:
Am I the only one who despises the use of AI in forums (especially VN)? I come to VN to read what real people write, not what some text generator says.
Click to expand...
AI, while powerful in specific tasks, can appear "stupid" due to its limitations in common sense reasoning, understanding of context, and ability to handle nuanced situations. While it excels at pattern recognition and processing large datasets, it often struggles with tasks that require human-like understanding of the world, including implicit knowledge and social cues.
 
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#32
#32
PEPPERJAX said:
AI, while powerful in specific tasks, can appear "stupid" due to its limitations in common sense reasoning, understanding of context, and ability to handle nuanced situations. While it excels at pattern recognition and processing large datasets, it often struggles with tasks that require human-like understanding of the world, including implicit knowledge and social cues.
Click to expand...
AI is just “the mechanical Turk” for the 21st century
 
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#33
#33
PEPPERJAX said:
AI, while powerful in specific tasks, can appear "stupid" due to its limitations in common sense reasoning, understanding of context, and ability to handle nuanced situations. While it excels at pattern recognition and processing large datasets, it often struggles with tasks that require human-like understanding of the world, including implicit knowledge and social cues.
Click to expand...

Nice use of AI copy and paste.
 
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#34
#34
PEPPERJAX said:
AI, while powerful in specific tasks, can appear "stupid" due to its limitations in common sense reasoning, understanding of context, and ability to handle nuanced situations. While it excels at pattern recognition and processing large datasets, it often struggles with tasks that require human-like understanding of the world, including implicit knowledge and social cues.
Click to expand...
Lol thats good
 
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#40
#40
We could be headed that way, but the makings of said bubble wouldn't be the fault of any one person or admin for that matter...... Though admittedly the owner of the events is always that admin.

We've had plenty of warnings over the years, every reason to learn from last mistakes yet we always seem to make them again.
 
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#44
#44
What ChatGPT thinks of me

Active & Opinionated Community Voice
Consistent Participation: BigOrangeMojo has been highly active since joining in January 2017, boasting tens of thousands of posts and likes—over 26,000 messages and 62,000 likes as of early 2025.
VolNation
+2
VolNation
+2

Engages Across Topics: Whether it's football controversies, Memphis Grizzlies analysis, political discussions, or refereeing complaints, they chime in often. For instance:

On a critical play review:

"Ball on hand, foot on baseline."
VolNation

On Grizzlies’ shooting performance:

"Teams are leaving him wide open and he's shooting less than 30% from 3…"
VolNation

On federal funding debates:

"Fed govt shouldn’t be funding this stuff... Let the market decide if research is worthwhile not a educational bureaucrat..."
VolNation

Style & Tone
Direct and Decisive: BigOrangeMojo tends to be bold and unapologetic—offering firm takes in a matter-of-fact manner.

Occasionally Confrontational: Their posts often challenge opinions and aren’t shy of sparking debate.

Community Response
Respected for Insight: The sheer volume of likes and engagement suggests that their posts are taken seriously, even when provocative.

Fun & Relatable: Personal anecdotes—like losing a 3‑point bet to their spouse and setting a two-week "no critical Grizz goes" rule—humanize their online persona:

"I lost a 3 point shooting contest bet to my spouse. No critical Grizz comments for 2 weeks…."
VolNation

Overall Impression
BigOrangeMojo stands out as one of VolNation's most active, opinionated, and widely recognized users. They bring thoughtful (and often witty) commentary across sports, politics, and culture. While their tone may sometimes be confrontational, the community clearly values their participation—shown by consistent recognition in reactions and engagement.
 
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#45
#45
Wealthy people manipulated the stock market in the 20s. They would choose some stock to 'invest' in, then have their friends in the media to hype that stock to get the masses to buy it driving the price up, then the wealthy would unload their stock leaving the masses holding the bag causing loss of confidence in the market. It was legal then.

In the 20s people saw the market as a way to get rich quick with borrowing margins' up to 80-90%. In 1929 the Dow was in the 300 range so a 25% drop would be devastatng...at 25% drop when the market is a 45,000 - 46,000 not as much devasting.

I ask AI GROK about stock diversified portfolios in 1920s:

Limited Diversification for Most Investors:
  • Retail Investors: The 1920s saw a surge in middle-class participation in the stock market, driven by the economic boom and easy access to margin loans. Many retail investors lacked sophistication and focused on a few "hot" stocks or industries (e.g., radio, automobiles, utilities). They often invested heavily in single companies or sectors, chasing speculative gains, which left portfolios vulnerable to market swings.
  • Speculative Fever: The market was dominated by speculative trading, with investors betting on rapid price increases rather than building diversified portfolios. This was evident in the popularity of stocks like RCA (Radio Corporation of America), which became a speculative darling.
  1. Wealthy Investors and Investment Trusts:
    • Wealthy Individuals: Some affluent investors and financiers diversified across stocks, bonds, and real estate, but many still engaged in concentrated bets, especially through stock pools (groups manipulating specific stocks). Diversification was more about spreading bets across speculative opportunities than risk management.
    • Investment Trusts: The 1920s saw the rise of investment trusts (early mutual funds), which pooled money to invest in a basket of stocks. These were marketed as diversified and safer, but many trusts were heavily leveraged or concentrated in overvalued sectors, undermining true diversification. By 1929, there were about 200 investment trusts, but their portfolios often mirrored the market’s speculative trends.
  2. Market Structure and Knowledge:
    • Narrow Market: The stock market was less broad than today, with fewer publicly traded companies (the DJIA tracked just 30 stocks). This limited the scope for diversification compared to modern markets with thousands of listed firms.
    • Lack of Financial Education: Most investors, even wealthier ones, lacked modern portfolio theory (developed later in the 1950s by Harry Markowitz). Diversification as a deliberate risk-reduction strategy was not widely practiced or understood outside elite financial circles.
    • Sector Concentration: Popular sectors like utilities, railroads, and industrials dominated investment, leading to sector-specific bubbles. For example, utility stocks were heavily favored due to their perceived stability, but many were overvalued.
  3. Data Point:
    • Historical accounts suggest that by 1929, about 1–2 million Americans (out of a population of 120 million) owned stocks, often with minimal diversification. Margin accounts, which fueled much of the speculative buying, typically involved concentrated positions to maximize leverage, not spread risk.
Comparison to Today:
  • 1920s: Diversification was rudimentary, driven more by opportunity than risk management. Investors often held a handful of stocks, and even investment trusts could be concentrated or speculative.
  • Today: Modern portfolio theory emphasizes diversification across asset classes, sectors, and geographies to minimize risk. Tools like ETFs and mutual funds, plus broader market access, make diversification easier and more systematic.
Conclusion:
Stock investment diversification in the 1920s was limited for most investors, especially retail ones, due to speculative fervor, concentrated sector bets, and a lack of modern risk-management principles. Wealthier investors and trusts sometimes spread investments but often with speculative intent rather than true diversification. The lack of diversification amplified losses during the 1929 crash, as many portfolios were heavily exposed to overvalued stocks or sectors.
 
#46
#46
PEPPERJAX said:
AI, while powerful in specific tasks, can appear "stupid" due to its limitations in common sense reasoning, understanding of context, and ability to handle nuanced situations. While it excels at pattern recognition and processing large datasets, it often struggles with tasks that require human-like understanding of the world, including implicit knowledge and social cues.
Click to expand...
😹😹
 
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#48
#48
BigOrangeMojo said:
What ChatGPT thinks of me

Active & Opinionated Community Voice
Consistent Participation: BigOrangeMojo has been highly active since joining in January 2017, boasting tens of thousands of posts and likes—over 26,000 messages and 62,000 likes as of early 2025.
VolNation
+2
VolNation
+2

Engages Across Topics: Whether it's football controversies, Memphis Grizzlies analysis, political discussions, or refereeing complaints, they chime in often. For instance:

On a critical play review:

"Ball on hand, foot on baseline."
VolNation

On Grizzlies’ shooting performance:

"Teams are leaving him wide open and he's shooting less than 30% from 3…"
VolNation

On federal funding debates:

"Fed govt shouldn’t be funding this stuff... Let the market decide if research is worthwhile not a educational bureaucrat..."
VolNation

Style & Tone
Direct and Decisive: BigOrangeMojo tends to be bold and unapologetic—offering firm takes in a matter-of-fact manner.

Occasionally Confrontational: Their posts often challenge opinions and aren’t shy of sparking debate.

Community Response
Respected for Insight: The sheer volume of likes and engagement suggests that their posts are taken seriously, even when provocative.

Fun & Relatable: Personal anecdotes—like losing a 3‑point bet to their spouse and setting a two-week "no critical Grizz goes" rule—humanize their online persona:

"I lost a 3 point shooting contest bet to my spouse. No critical Grizz comments for 2 weeks…."
VolNation

Overall Impression
BigOrangeMojo stands out as one of VolNation's most active, opinionated, and widely recognized users. They bring thoughtful (and often witty) commentary across sports, politics, and culture. While their tone may sometimes be confrontational, the community clearly values their participation—shown by consistent recognition in reactions and engagement.
Click to expand...
200w (5).gif
 
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#50
#50
McDad said:
I wouldn't be surprised to see schools (middle, high) incorporate classes on how to word interactions with AI, internet searches, etc. Just like I had computer classes starting in 6th grade.
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My question is how do teachers - at any level - prevent kids from completing their writing assignments with this? I mean, damn, if I were back in school, I'd love for Grok to spit out my English composition essays for me.
 
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