Iran

#3,676
#3,676
So far, President Trump has handled the Iran-Israel crisis pretty well, until now. Iran is on its heels. The Administration has the opportunity to deal a death blow to Iran and really set back or destroy its nuclear weapons program. If he is going to do it, Trump should pull the trigger sooner, rather than later.

To take out the underground Fordow nuclear testing facilities, Trump will have to use super heavy ordinance that only the US has. In addition, these bombs can only be delivered by our B-2 bombers.

But no, he has announced that he will wait 2 weeks to see if negotiations can be fruitful. The Iranians have never entered into good faith negotiations. Trump has signaled his intent.

This gives the Iranians 2 weeks to come up with a plan to shoot our planes out of the sky. China can easily send anti-aircraft missiles to Iran. Trump runs a risk of losing planes, losing Americans and losing the initiative. He risks failing to act just to get extra publicity for himself. He is a fool.

If Trump fails to knock out the Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran will be able to rise from the ashes and strike- this time with nuclear weapons.

""I have a message directly from the president, and I quote, 'based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,'" Leavitt said at a White House briefing quoting Trump."


Trump to make Iran decision 'within the next two weeks' given 'chance' of negotiations, Leavitt says​

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that President Donald Trump will make a decision on the U.S. becoming involved in Israel's conflict with Iran within the next two weeks.
www.foxnews.com
www.foxnews.com
 
#3,677
#3,677
Israel has not struck the Fordow nuclear bomb development facility. It is about 300 feet under the mountain. Israel does not have the ordinance to penterate the mountain. Only the US possesses the MOP bomb, which is designed to penetrate up to 200-300 feet (reports differ).

Also, Israel may be running out of its heavy ordinance.

There are 3 options- Israel may try bomb Fordow with its existing arms, Israel may send in commandos to destroy the facility or the US can bomb it. Experts believe it will take between 8 and 12 MOPs delivered by the US to completely destroy the facility. It can be done with either B-2s, which are stealth bombers or a C-130, which are slower propeller driven planes that are not stealth bombers.

We have only about 20 MOPs. Israel has none and Israel does not have the airplanes built to deliver the MOPs.

"The GBU-57 series MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) is a 30,000-pound (13,600 kg) class precision-guided "bunker buster" bomb developed for the United States Air Force (USAF)."

If Iran's nuclear weapons systems remain in place, including the Fordow site, Iran will be able to easily reconstitute its nuclear bomb manufacturing effort. With nukes, Iran will be more likely to attack both the US and Israel, if it survives this onslaught.

Fordow has to go.

Now that the attacks have begun, all of Iran's nuclear war capabilities must be eliminated.

Trump should not waste time. He is only delaying the decision, 1) because he is afraid and/ or 2) because he wants all attention to be on him.

Those are poor reasons to make a decision about Iran's nuclear weapons. Trump is running out of time.

en.wikipedia.org

GBU-57A/B MOP - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
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#3,678
#3,678
By the way, Iran can also deliver a dirty bomb to both Israel and the US. One may surmise that the US is the more vulnerable of the two, given the number of undocumented immigrants that were let into the US. It would only take a team of 10 to 20 highly trained operatives to blow up nuclear facilities in the US or to secure and detonate a dirty bomb.
 
#3,679
#3,679
FortSanders said:
So far, President Trump has handled the Iran-Israel crisis pretty well, until now. Iran is on its heels. The Administration has the opportunity to deal a death blow to Iran and really set back or destroy its nuclear weapons program. If he is going to do it, Trump should pull the trigger sooner, rather than later.

To take out the underground Fordow nuclear testing facilities, Trump will have to use super heavy ordinance that only the US has. In addition, these bombs can only be delivered by our B-2 bombers.

But no, he has announced that he will wait 2 weeks to see if negotiations can be fruitful. The Iranians have never entered into good faith negotiations. Trump has signaled his intent.

This gives the Iranians 2 weeks to come up with a plan to shoot our planes out of the sky. China can easily send anti-aircraft missiles to Iran. Trump runs a risk of losing planes, losing Americans and losing the initiative. He risks failing to act just to get extra publicity for himself. He is a fool.

If Trump fails to knock out the Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran will be able to rise from the ashes and strike- this time with nuclear weapons.

""I have a message directly from the president, and I quote, 'based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,'" Leavitt said at a White House briefing quoting Trump."


Trump to make Iran decision 'within the next two weeks' given 'chance' of negotiations, Leavitt says​

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that President Donald Trump will make a decision on the U.S. becoming involved in Israel's conflict with Iran within the next two weeks.
www.foxnews.com
www.foxnews.com
Click to expand...
He said he'd decide "within 2 weeks", not in two weeks. Friday (tomorrow) afternoon after the stock market closes for the weekend, for example, is "within 2 weeks".
 
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#3,681
#3,681
FortSanders said:
So far, President Trump has handled the Iran-Israel crisis pretty well, until now. Iran is on its heels. The Administration has the opportunity to deal a death blow to Iran and really set back or destroy its nuclear weapons program. If he is going to do it, Trump should pull the trigger sooner, rather than later.

To take out the underground Fordow nuclear testing facilities, Trump will have to use super heavy ordinance that only the US has. In addition, these bombs can only be delivered by our B-2 bombers.

But no, he has announced that he will wait 2 weeks to see if negotiations can be fruitful. The Iranians have never entered into good faith negotiations. Trump has signaled his intent.

This gives the Iranians 2 weeks to come up with a plan to shoot our planes out of the sky. China can easily send anti-aircraft missiles to Iran. Trump runs a risk of losing planes, losing Americans and losing the initiative. He risks failing to act just to get extra publicity for himself. He is a fool.

If Trump fails to knock out the Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran will be able to rise from the ashes and strike- this time with nuclear weapons.

""I have a message directly from the president, and I quote, 'based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,'" Leavitt said at a White House briefing quoting Trump."


Trump to make Iran decision 'within the next two weeks' given 'chance' of negotiations, Leavitt says​

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that President Donald Trump will make a decision on the U.S. becoming involved in Israel's conflict with Iran within the next two weeks.
www.foxnews.com
www.foxnews.com
Click to expand...

There is no guarantee, actually it's doubtful that our bunker buster bombs could take it out. It's 300 feet below ground.
 
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#3,685
#3,685
hog88 said:
There is no guarantee, actually it's doubtful that our bunker buster bombs could take it out. It's 300 feet below ground.
Click to expand...
It’s gonna have to be Israeli commandos to finish a job that deep. BBs might be enough to make site personnel to abandon their post. Will be a much easier job if the remnants of Iranian leadership flee the country.
 
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#3,692
#3,692
volgr said:
Russia thought they would force Ukraine to the table very early, which they did. An agreement was about to be signed when western interests assured their proxy they would stand behind them. At that point Russia changed course and turned this into a war of attrition which they have implemented quite well. It wasnt perfect, they made plenty of mistakes as is the nature of war.
Click to expand...

Lmfao so you believe a multi year war is exactly what Russia wants?
 
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#3,693
#3,693
FortSanders said:
Correct. An attempt and failure by Trump to take out Iran's nukes would be the worst outcome.
Click to expand...

What am I missing? Idk that I’m seeing it as a bad outcome. It detonates and we further cave in the entrance making it harder to access, but possibly don’t fully destroy the facility? Maybe it doesn’t detonate.

Outside of our aircraft being taken out or personnel lost, I can’t think of bad outcomes.
 
#3,695
#3,695
IMO, the Fordow plant can be made ineffective without the so-called bunker busters. Take out the exposed support buildings and use air-fuel bombs to seal off the tunnels. It then becomes a crypt. They can't dig it out because of fear of repeated pounding. There is a finite amount of oxygen.

Also, if they want regime change, take out govt buildings in Tehran so as to embolden the citizenship. The population is still afraid of reprisals if/when the bombing is ceased. Give them hope that the govt cannot do anything about revolts by the people.
 
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#3,696
#3,696
MHS Rebel said:
IMO, the Fordow plant can be made ineffective without the so-called bunker busters. Take out the exposed support buildings and use air-fuel bombs to seal off the tunnels. It then becomes a crypt. They can't dig it out because of fear of repeated pounding. There is a finite amount of oxygen.

Also, if they want regime change, take out govt buildings in Tehran so as to embolden the citizenship. The population is still afraid of reprisals if/when the bombing is ceased. Give them hope that the govt cannot do anything about revolts by the people.
Click to expand...

Agreed with this approach. Continue weakening their command structure and military capabilities to embolden potential uprisings. Cave in any facility they’re unable to take out with bombs, and let the people of Iran decide what happens next
 
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#3,697
#3,697
volgr said:
Russia likely has the best fighting force on the planet right now. They are resource rich and are building their economy back quite impressively.
Click to expand...
Their 100 year old tactics of trying to soften the target then sending meat waves have lead to very slow progress. They've essentially been bogged down, and their equipment lacks quality.
 
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#3,698
#3,698
PEPPERJAX said:
When the conflict began, I felt that Russia would have had this wrapped up in a matter of months and that simply hasn't been the case. This has played out like the plot from the first Rocky movie.
Click to expand...

On the Ukraine thread when I was arguing with Ras and volgr about it way back (basically same argument that is going on now), I compared it to UL Monroe vs Georgia when Georgia only won by like 7 points or something and UL Monroe was winning most the game. It is basically the same as what is going on with Ukraine and Russia. Russia is going to win but Ukraine has made them look embarrassing or exposed them. It won't be a solid Russian win.
 
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#3,699
#3,699
norrislakevol said:
Their 100 year old tactics of trying to soften the target then sending meat waves have lead to very slow progress. They've essentially been bogged down, and their equipment lacks quality.
Click to expand...

Russia has a history of being horrible on offense but great on defense in wars. Basically Russia performs a lot better against people that invade them. A lot of this has to do with logistics. Russian logistical equipment sucks and always had with the exception of brief periods.

People underestimate how the oil trucks and equipment the USA gave to the USSR in 1940s really helped them drive back the Nazis.
 
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