Recruiting Football Talk VIII

[drvenner]

He’s getting $9M because of a QB the guy before him recruited

Yeah because Pruitt definitely would have won 11 games with Hendon as his QB.

 

[Vols410]

I can't stop looking at numbers today. Wanted to get some work done but oh well...

I feel like the most frustrating part of our offense last year was how often we just got nothing (or worse) plays. Nico seemed to get sacked a ton relative to his pressure rates, and despite being 6'6", I've never seen so many batted passes.

Out of the top 100 QBs in my 2024 talent rankings database:

Expected Sack Rate (adjusted for OL performance and opponent):
- Nico: #92
- Aguilar: #18

Expected Batted Pass Rate (same adjustments):
- Nico: #98
- Aguilar: #9

And because these kinds of plays kill drives...

Expected First Down Rate:
- Nico: #52
- Aguilar: #17

Also... I didn't expect this but if you adjust for talent, game context, and scheme, Aguilar and Nico's expected INT rates are actually about the same. Nico benefited from a ton of screens and play action, while Aguilar never really got that kind of help and consistently got left for dead by his coaching staff, o-line, and receivers.

Expected INT Rate:
- Nico: #44
- Aguilar: #57

Nico's obviously got all the talent in the world, and while Aguilar has a really good arm he's never going to have Nico's ceiling. The good news is, what works in college isn't always equal to what makes for a high ceiling quarterback, and I think Aguilar's ability to move the chains is going to be a much better fit for the college game (and Heupel's offense) than what Nico brings to the table.

 

[rikberry31]

Defenses have adjusted, I agree there were issues with lack of execution, at both WR and QB that limited our effectiveness. But every team we faced n conference adjusted their defensive alignments after Heupels first year, to varying degrees of success.

No offense is impossible to counter, I haven't said teams figured out the offense. Only that they have adjusted to limit splash plays, forcing qb's to make tougher decisions and better throws. And the last two years I agree, our QB's left way too much on the table.

The "adjustment" that those teams made was to put 7 or 8 in the box. When we could not capitalize through passing game, we struggled, which was most of last year. The only antidote to Tennessee's offensive scheme when it is functioning properly is to stop the run with 6 in the box.

 

[KB5252]

The plain fact of the matter is that Tennessee's offense run correctly is going to face light boxes. Only when we are not executing can the defense play more in the box. If our threats are threatening then we will run against light boxes all day.

100% agree, those that deny this offense affords runners a big advantage have never played defense and or don't understand scheme or gap responsibility.

 

[KB5252]

The "adjustment" that those teams made was to put 7 or 8 in the box. When we could not capitalize through passing game, we struggled, which was most of last year. The only antidote to Tennessee's offensive scheme when it is functioning properly is to stop the run with 6 in the box.

I disagree there, I've seen the league adjust specifically with safeties to limit big splash plays...... Which in turn gave more advantage to our running game.

 

[OrangeMoundTNVol]

It was a bad sign when DETRIOT signed the retired guy that was coaching high school to be backup QB over a healthy Hendon Hooker...

It’s worse with the WRs, Ced/Velus/Hyatt. I’m sure Donte & Bru won’t suddenly be pro bowlers as well. But when half the plays you don’t even run a route, by design, if the first read isn’t on your side of the field then I can see how a NFL route tree can get tricky coming out of our system.

 

[KB5252]

It’s worse with the WRs, Ced/Velus/Hyatt. I’m sure Donte & Bru won’t suddenly be pro bowlers as well. But when half the plays you don’t even run a route, by design, if the first read isn’t on your side of the field then I can see how a NFL route tree can get tricky coming out of our system.

I do not like this aspect of our offense at all, and I've never read or heard an explanation of why half the field is dead for most of our pass plays.

If someone has an answer is really like to know/understand why.

 

[PowerT.]

Saves us a ton of money. Allows us to grab high profile guys in the portal. Remember, we still need WR, DT, and maybe 2-3 impact players.

I agree we need 2-3 impact players, but lets be honest we are not getting them at this point.

The only "impact" players in the portal are: Pena (Cuse Wr), USF DT, and Syracuse DT. None of which have shown any interest in coming here

 

[OrangeMoundTNVol]

I do not like this aspect of our offense at all, and I've never read or heard an explanation of why half the field is dead for most of our pass plays.

If someone has an answer is really like to know/understand why.

I would as well, they literally run about 7 yards and start jogging in place. Definitely when the main read is a go route. Lord forbid the QB manages to see the slot guy streak open on a post or something.

 

[DD4ME]

We tried. No arguing that.

 

[KB5252]

I would as well, they literally run about 7 yards and start jogging in place. Definitely when the main read is a go route. Lord forbid the QB manages to see the slot guy streak open on a post or something.

I could understand running as decoy to lull defenders to sleep.......and then a double move to torch defenders...... But it literally appears to serve no purpose.

 

[DD4ME]

Lol

 

[HalfullVol]

I agree we need 2-3 impact players, but lets be honest we are not getting them at this point.

The only "impact" players in the portal are: Pena (Cuse Wr), USF DT, and Syracuse DT. None of which have shown any interest in coming here

Yes, maybe depth is where Vols add talent.

I don’t remember Vols paying top for transfers but maybe the depth pieces turn into impact players.

I hope so and trust the staff to make the right decisions.

 

[IASIPNeyland]

He was actually very complimentary of TN and Josh Heupel, while taking shots at Nico and UCLA. Was actually a good listen.

He did a good job of creating a timeline and filling it with facts. He also obviously has connections at UCLA, too

 

[OrangeMoundTNVol]

They are paying these kids more than they will make in whatever Euro basketball league they end up playing in. That’s insane

 

[rikberry31]

I disagree there, I've seen the league adjust specifically with safeties to limit big splash plays...... Which in turn gave more advantage to our running game.

I am a simple man, and to me it mostly boils down to hats on hats. If the defense has enough or more hats in proximity to the ball to take on all blocks it will stop the run. Tennessee's run game is get to the second level and make somebody miss.
In my mind even if you dedicate stafties to the run, unless they are close enough to the line of scrimmage they are largely ineffective at stuffing the run. When the creep up, slant over the top. Jalin Hyatt made a ton of hay with that in 2022.
Bottom line is that football is all about adjustments and execution, and by far the biggest factor is execution.

 

[Ten_Titans]

We tried. No arguing that.

I respect it. The odd thing about that is you're trying to replace a kid who was all about grabbing the bag... By finding another kid who is only about grabbing the bag.

I can appreciate he's honoring whatever agreement he had with Illinois prior to Spring.

 

[IASIPNeyland]

I agree with that but players concerns about it not getting players ready for the NFL are valid. Passing offense relies more on pre set reads, limited route tree for the receivers, and rbs going against limited guys in the box. We need some guys to break through.

That is just smart football. If we win enough games, the most talented players will come here. Those players will get drafted and recruits won't care. Heupel got Cook, Hooker, and Milton drafted and made all of his UCF players look like Michael Vick. He can get and coach QBs. Maybe bringing in a renowned QB coach will help, too.

 

[VolGee4]

100% agree, those that deny this offense affords runners a big advantage have never played defense and or don't understand scheme or gap responsibility.

I’m not denying that the offense can have an advantage in the running game. But if the narrative that all skilled players just merely benefit from the scheme, it’s lazy. If we average almost 5 ypc, Sampson averaged about 6 ypc over 3 years. You have to watch what he brings. If you see what he does in the open field, then that tells an NFL OC to get him in space. We have guys who can excel at the next level.

 

[DD4ME]

Don't listen to these narratives about the Clemson film unless you watch the entire tape. I posted it the other day. Joey had minimal support from his line and recievers and they were down multiple touchdowns and playing behind the whole game. He never sat in the pocket and waited for a sack. He moved around and he made some plays. Kid is better than the haters will tell and not as good as the sunshine pumpers.

Pros-
Lots of experience
Appears to play hard even in bad games
Eludes pressure
Can run a little

Cons
Not as strong an arm as we have had recently - may matter on splits
Ints
So little prep time

 

[Visidog]

I disagree there, I've seen the league adjust specifically with safeties to limit big splash plays...... Which in turn gave more advantage to our running game.

This. UGA usually lines up -2 in the box against Tennessee: 3 DL and 2 LB against the OL, QB, and RB. They’ll add in a safety or OLB if a TE is present. The hope is to bleed yards slowly while limiting splash plays and eventually getting the offense behind the sticks. The box defenders all start reading run; the wide players all start reading pass.

It’s not magic. Teams aren’t solving the offense, but they are figuring out its fundamental reads and structures and adapting to those things.

Florida, for example, defends differently than UGA. They preferred to play single coverage out wide with minimal safety help and bet that the length of the required throws plus pressure from the defense would be enough.

Teams have adjusted enough to keep from busting as many plays, but that’s very different than taking the sting out of a whole offensive scheme.

 

[triadvolfan]

I do not like this aspect of our offense at all, and I've never read or heard an explanation of why half the field is dead for most of our pass plays.

If someone has an answer is really like to know/understand why.

It's to rest half of our receivers so we can avoid substituting and keep the defense on the field.

Given we slowed our pace with Nico last year it's less relevant but when we were hiking the ball every 10 seconds it created an advantage.

 

[rikberry31]

And there wasn't a good air raid quarterback until Patrick mahomes. All it takes is one guy

I've asked this question several times with no good responses. If Heuple's offense doesn't translate to the League, what is going on with Patrick Mahomes? He came from a pure Air Raid system and he's the best qb in the NFL. How many players come up running the Wing-T in high school and move to college and run spread or pro set?

 

[DD4ME]

I respect it. The odd thing about that is you're trying to replace a kid who was all about grabbing the bag... By finding another kid who is only about grabbing the bag.

I can appreciate he's honoring whatever agreement he had with Illinois prior to Spring.

He (family) had ties to UT and the system. We focused on this kid and it did not work out. Hopefully it worked out for the best.

 

[VolGee4]

Don't listen to these narratives about the Clemson film unless you watch the entire tape. I posted it the other day. Joey had minimal support from his line and recievers and they were down multiple touchdowns and playing behind the whole game. He never sat in the pocket and waited for a sack. He moved around and he made some plays. Kid is better than the haters will tell and not as good as the sunshine pumpers.

Pros-
Lots of experience
Appears to play hard even in bad games
Eludes pressure
Can run a little

Cons
Not as strong an arm as we have had recently - may matter on splits
Ints
So little prep time

Plus, I don't think we have to worry about a bunch of turnovers. The scheme limits INT's. All of Heupel's QB stats have low INT's.