Trade Wars and Tariffs

#2,509
#2,509
Thunder Good-Oil said:
We need to have the capacity to feed every American, take care of every healthcare issue, and build every component of every weapons system from within our borders. China’s goal is to surpass us economically and militarily. Plus they want to own our farmland. We can’t allow any of that to happen and correct anything that has been trending in that direction.

Sourcing raw materials like lumber and energy from Canada and labor from Latin America is fine as long as it’s a 2-way street as far as providing things of value in exchange for access to US commerce. Especially Mexico working with us instead of against us on our social problems (fentanyl and illegal immigration). All of the neighbors need to not be a participant in enabling China to gain influence and power.

Tariffs are a far better method than military options. Even blockades entail a use of force. Leveraging our economic position isn’t a bad approach.

The hatred of Orange Man being the top concern is a selfish, agenda driven mistake by the left.
Click to expand...
Of course Trump himself would NEVER act in a selfish agenda himself. 🤭 That's pretty funny
 
#2,510
#2,510
Ashevolle said:
You attract more flies with honey than vinegar. Trump's only tool appears to be pissing on their leg, so color me skeptical of any cooperation from our so-called global partners moving forward.
Click to expand...

At the end of the day, they will still want access to the US consumer and protection provided by our military. Being the nice guy in negotiations just invites a continuation of deals skewed in their favor.
 
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#2,511
#2,511
Traffic for stocks seems to be down today. Has the left moved to another expertise of the week maybe South Korea relations as Trump wrapped up a call.
 
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#2,512
#2,512
Quietly negotiating with a surgical approach was a possible method. But being fast and loud gets the message out much more effectively. They mad right now and their citizens are being bombarded with anti-America propaganda. But those people need to take a step back and listen for once instead of taking our generosity for granted. At the end of the day the true partners will still have favorable trade deals. If they think they can continue with the hate America rhetoric while taking our charity they’ll learn a hard lesson.
 
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#2,515
#2,515
See the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are up decently this morning. Everyone off the ledge now or are the leftists still hanging out hoping and praying for the meltdown?
 
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#2,516
#2,516
GroverCleveland said:
See the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are up decently this morning. Everyone off the ledge now or are the leftists still hanging out hoping and praying for the meltdown?
Click to expand...

About half of my opening gains have melted away. Now it will take about 12 similar session to get back to even (last Wednesday’s close). It was more like 5 or 6 with the opening bounce.

Maybe buyers come back in the afternoon, but if I was a trader I’d expect to see many locking in some slight recovery gains and then deterioration continue through the rest of the day’s trading.
 
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#2,517
#2,517
Haven't waded through this thread at all, but seems like there's a lot of analyses missing across the board (not this one). It's not really surprising when an idiot like Trump attempts to surround himself with like minds and was wildly successful. Trump has some good ideas, but his implementation sucks; his temperament is like a spoiled rich kid of 12; his verbiage rivals a teenage valley girl; he cannot sort out grifters from competent and honest people (Putin is a great example). In short Trump doesn't seem to comprehend that the WH isn't a reality TV stage.

Yes, we have a huge trade imbalance and we let the rest of the world take advantage of us when those countries have gotten back on their feet and returned to prosperity or achieved prosperity. We went well past the time when we should have weened allies off the US military as their defense. We've certainly been guilty of willingly if not having caused the trade imbalance of then of doing little to correct it. It's pretty safe to say that China is our next real adversary, and our trade built their military that we will now face. That's stupidity of the first order; Trump didn't cause it; but it's doubtful that his remedy will fix the situation without irreparable damage to our relationships with allies. At least China isn't run by Trump's butt buddy Putin, so Trump doesn't see China as a friend.

The thing that really stands to hurt us is labor - our labor and the cost of our labor, and it seems that is the item being ignored in the whole equation. You absolutely cannot compete with the rest of the world when your labor costs are excessive and far greater than those in other countries producing goods. You can't fix that imbalance with tariffs (fake or real). You can't fix it with automation and AI either. You cannot in short order rebuild factories to produce goods here even if US industry had a mind to do so - which they won't because a return to world wide competition would sink any chance of a return on the investment (you can't compete with our labor rates), and the dems (the people who back exorbitant union wages and unreasonable minimum wage) will be back in control soon enough.

The other issue with labor is a combination of too many people no longer participating in the labor market. We have to be a nation of gainfully employed people again; too much of the unemployed (but not unemployed per labor statistics) aren't simply people beyond retirement age; we simply have too many people comfortably off and able to get by without real employment. The absolutely astounding thing is that nobody seems to want to recognize that you have to have people employed. AI and automation don't buy goods, but they do displace people who might be employed and who would be consumers. The other part of that equation is that our government has and will develop and maintain programs to siphon money from the employed and from business to fund the idle - perhaps not this administration, but that will be short lived.

Forget economics as taught, and instead consider the laws that govern physics and thermodynamics. Basically you can't get something from nothing, and you can't get as much as you thought you could. You have to look at the entire economy as basically a closed system with a lot of leaks, complex feedback mechanisms, and a tremendous amount of frictional or heat losses. Certainly the diversion of income from those working to those not working is a loss made worse by the cost of the agencies doing the collecting and dispersal; corruptly inefficient. Investment markets do not work as advertised. Rather than existing as a source of standby monetary needs for industry, they now exist to drain income from industry. Those are a tax equivalent to a mechanical frictional loss or heat loss in a thermodynamic cycle. Our economy in short is the nightmare that Lewis Carroll called Wonderland, and Trump's measures aren't going to fix it. You simply cannot treat a system as a bunch of unrelated items when the whole is a complex interrelated set of interlocking mechanisms with real feedback and control functions. About the only thing that economists really get right is the supply and demand relationship - there's a lot of fantasy in the rest.
 
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#2,518
#2,518
AM64 said:
Haven't waded through this thread at all, but seems like there's a lot of analyses missing across the board (not this one). It's not really surprising when an idiot like Trump attempts to surround himself with like minds and was wildly successful. Trump has some good ideas, but his implementation sucks; his temperament is like a spoiled rich kid of 12; his verbiage rivals a teenage valley girl; he cannot sort out grifters from competent and honest people (Putin is a great example). In short Trump doesn't seem to comprehend that the WH isn't a reality TV stage.

Yes, we have a huge trade imbalance and we let the rest of the world take advantage of us when those countries have gotten back on their feet and returned to prosperity or achieved prosperity. We went well past the time when we should have weened allies off the US military as their defense. We've certainly been guilty of willingly if not having caused the trade imbalance of then of doing little to correct it. It's pretty safe to say that China is our next real adversary, and our trade built their military that we will now face. That's stupidity of the first order; Trump didn't cause it; but it's doubtful that his remedy will fix the situation without irreparable damage to our relationships with allies. At least China isn't run by Trump's butt buddy Putin, so Trump doesn't see China as a friend.

The thing that really stands to hurt us is labor - our labor and the cost of our labor, and it seems that is the item being ignored in the whole equation. You absolutely cannot compete with the rest of the world when your labor costs are excessive and far greater than those in other countries producing goods. You can't fix that imbalance with tariffs (fake or real). You can't fix it with automation and AI either. You cannot in short order rebuild factories to produce goods here even if US industry had a mind to do so - which they won't because a return to world wide competition would sink any chance of a return on the investment (you can't compete with our labor rates), and the dems (the people who back exorbitant union wages and unreasonable minimum wage) will be back in control soon enough.

The other issue with labor is a combination of too many people no longer participating in the labor market. We have to be a nation of gainfully employed people again; too much of the unemployed (but not unemployed per labor statistics) aren't simply people beyond retirement age; we simply have too many people comfortably off and able to get by without real employment. The absolutely astounding thing is that nobody seems to want to recognize that you have to have people employed. AI and automation don't buy goods, but they do displace people who might be employed and who would be consumers. The other part of that equation is that our government has and will develop and maintain programs to siphon money from the employed and from business to fund the idle - perhaps not this administration, but that will be short lived.

Forget economics as taught, and instead consider the laws that govern physics and thermodynamics. Basically you can't get something from nothing, and you can't get as much as you thought you could. You have to look at the entire economy as basically a closed system with a lot of leaks, complex feedback mechanisms, and a tremendous amount of frictional or heat losses. Certainly the diversion of income from those working to those not working is a loss made worse by the cost of the agencies doing the collecting and dispersal; corruptly inefficient. Investment markets do not work as advertised. Rather than existing as a source of standby monetary needs for industry, they now exist to drain income from industry. Those are a tax equivalent to a mechanical frictional loss or heat loss in a thermodynamic cycle. Our economy in short is the nightmare that Lewis Carroll called Wonderland, and Trump's measures aren't going to fix it. You simply cannot treat a system as a bunch of unrelated items when the whole is a complex interrelated set of interlocking mechanisms with real feedback and control functions. About the only thing that economists really get right is the supply and demand relationship - there's a lot of fantasy in the rest.
Click to expand...
Well said AM. What I wish had happened is the WH squared off with only China and gone specifically at their entire import/export process including their active devaluation of the yuan. I’ve stated before in this forum we should pull mfg back from Asia and invest in Central America. That keeps all the economic benefits in our hemisphere, raises the income of the participating countries’s citizens which hopefully would keep them home and not swimming the Rio Grande, and strengthens our economic ties with our regional trading partners.

Then privately on a country by country basis approach other countries with their specifics and say play ball or your next, pointing at the effort against China. But I guess that isn’t as good reality TV so…. 🤷‍♂️
 
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#2,519
#2,519
AM64 said:
Haven't waded through this thread at all, but seems like there's a lot of analyses missing across the board (not this one). It's not really surprising when an idiot like Trump attempts to surround himself with like minds and was wildly successful. Trump has some good ideas, but his implementation sucks; his temperament is like a spoiled rich kid of 12; his verbiage rivals a teenage valley girl; he cannot sort out grifters from competent and honest people (Putin is a great example). In short Trump doesn't seem to comprehend that the WH isn't a reality TV stage.

Yes, we have a huge trade imbalance and we let the rest of the world take advantage of us when those countries have gotten back on their feet and returned to prosperity or achieved prosperity. We went well past the time when we should have weened allies off the US military as their defense. We've certainly been guilty of willingly if not having caused the trade imbalance of then of doing little to correct it. It's pretty safe to say that China is our next real adversary, and our trade built their military that we will now face. That's stupidity of the first order; Trump didn't cause it; but it's doubtful that his remedy will fix the situation without irreparable damage to our relationships with allies. At least China isn't run by Trump's butt buddy Putin, so Trump doesn't see China as a friend.

The thing that really stands to hurt us is labor - our labor and the cost of our labor, and it seems that is the item being ignored in the whole equation. You absolutely cannot compete with the rest of the world when your labor costs are excessive and far greater than those in other countries producing goods. You can't fix that imbalance with tariffs (fake or real). You can't fix it with automation and AI either. You cannot in short order rebuild factories to produce goods here even if US industry had a mind to do so - which they won't because a return to world wide competition would sink any chance of a return on the investment (you can't compete with our labor rates), and the dems (the people who back exorbitant union wages and unreasonable minimum wage) will be back in control soon enough.

The other issue with labor is a combination of too many people no longer participating in the labor market. We have to be a nation of gainfully employed people again; too much of the unemployed (but not unemployed per labor statistics) aren't simply people beyond retirement age; we simply have too many people comfortably off and able to get by without real employment. The absolutely astounding thing is that nobody seems to want to recognize that you have to have people employed. AI and automation don't buy goods, but they do displace people who might be employed and who would be consumers. The other part of that equation is that our government has and will develop and maintain programs to siphon money from the employed and from business to fund the idle - perhaps not this administration, but that will be short lived.

Forget economics as taught, and instead consider the laws that govern physics and thermodynamics. Basically you can't get something from nothing, and you can't get as much as you thought you could. You have to look at the entire economy as basically a closed system with a lot of leaks, complex feedback mechanisms, and a tremendous amount of frictional or heat losses. Certainly the diversion of income from those working to those not working is a loss made worse by the cost of the agencies doing the collecting and dispersal; corruptly inefficient. Investment markets do not work as advertised. Rather than existing as a source of standby monetary needs for industry, they now exist to drain income from industry. Those are a tax equivalent to a mechanical frictional loss or heat loss in a thermodynamic cycle. Our economy in short is the nightmare that Lewis Carroll called Wonderland, and Trump's measures aren't going to fix it. You simply cannot treat a system as a bunch of unrelated items when the whole is a complex interrelated set of interlocking mechanisms with real feedback and control functions. About the only thing that economists really get right is the supply and demand relationship - there's a lot of fantasy in the rest.
Click to expand...

I guess you missed that Trump is pissed off at his “butt buddy” (is BB PC?). Lover’s quarrel?

 
#2,521
#2,521
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I guess you missed that Trump is pissed off at his “butt buddy” (is BB PC?). Lover’s quarrel?

Click to expand...


So "pissed off" that he didn't even bother to drop a measly 10% tariff on him because he's "negotiating".
1744134490744.png
www.nytimes.com

Why Did Trump Spare Russia From New Tariffs?

The Trump administration says sanctions imposed on Moscow mean the U.S. does little trade with Russia, but questions persist about the motivations.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
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#2,522
#2,522
BeardedVol said:
So "pissed off" that he didn't even bother to drop a measly 10% tariff on him because he's "negotiating".
View attachment 733797
www.nytimes.com

Why Did Trump Spare Russia From New Tariffs?

The Trump administration says sanctions imposed on Moscow mean the U.S. does little trade with Russia, but questions persist about the motivations.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
Click to expand...

“Mr. Trump has been weighing how to protect American farmers from the effects of his trade wars. Keeping the cost of fertilizer low could be part of that strategy.”

“The value of U.S. trade with Russia has fallen to its lowest level in decades following the invasion.”
 
#2,523
#2,523
Thunder Good-Oil said:
“Mr. Trump has been weighing how to protect American farmers from the effects of his trade wars. Keeping the cost of fertilizer low could be part of that strategy.”

“The value of U.S. trade with Russia has fallen to its lowest level in decades following the invasion.”
Click to expand...

I'm sure US farmers are concerned with increased fertilizer costs at the moment.
investigatemidwest.org

Trump’s trade war with China puts $12.8B in US soybean exports at risk - Investigate Midwest

Soybeans are expected to be among the hardest-hit commodities in the Chinese market, mirroring the fallout from Trump’s first trade war.
investigatemidwest.org
 
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#2,524
#2,524
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I guess you missed that Trump is pissed off at his “butt buddy” (is BB PC?). Lover’s quarrel?

Click to expand...


I'd count on that being just temporary. I don't think Trump's stupidity and arrogance let him see when he fails to evaluate someone's real character; he certainly surrounds himself with enough flawed characters - and not likely because he sees their flaws as making him look better.
 
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