College Hoops Around The Country [TN opponents, RPI, others]

#22,253
#22,253
lawgator1 said:
You can have the 1 in the west. Good luck with that.
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What happened to your Gators, tonight ( little bit of a prod but also a serious question)?
They've had a couple of games like that now where they got behind big to a team that is at the bottom of the SEC. They were lucky in that SC game, but their luck ran out tonight.
It could just be a road thing with them.
I think I remember another one on the road besides us they underperformed.
If so, their game with Bama is on the road.
They may need to figure it out before they go to Coleman Coliseum.
 
#22,254
#22,254
Anti-shunshinepumper said:
What happened to your Gators, tonight ( little bit of a prod but also a serious question)?
They've had a couple of games like that now where they got behind big to a team that is at the bottom of the SEC. They were lucky in that SC game, but their luck ran out tonight.
It could just be a road thing with them.
I think I remember another one on the road besides us they underperformed.
If so, their game with Bama is on the road.
They may need to figure it out before they go to Coleman Coliseum.
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Lost focus against a team at home fighting to get into the tournament. Not surprised really.
 
#22,256
#22,256
I don’t mean this as a jab at Florida, but how can you look at Todd Golden, knowing what he was accused of (I’ve learned throughout my life where there’s smoke, there’s fire), watch some of his sideline antics, and think that guy has the maturity and mindset to outcoach lifetime basketball junkies like Rick Pitino, Kelvin Sampson, Tom Izzo, Matt Painter, Mark Few and the like on the biggest stage in college basketball during crunch time? Those guys are basketball savants and don’t even know what Snapchat is.

I don’t see it.
 
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#22,257
#22,257
Anti-shunshinepumper said:
Fair enough, it happens.The SEC is a gauntlet this year.
Do you think if we did get the #1 seed we necessarily go West?
I mean if Bama was to stumble agaisnt us could we not go to the Mid-West?
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It truly is. I heard folks on ESPN radio talking about Texas losing to SC. They said, as bad as it seems to lose to an 0-13 conference team, the SC loss is still a quad 2 loss for Texas. The SEC is so good this year that anyone truly can beat anyone. SC took Auburn to the wire.
 
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#22,258
#22,258
Wow! Duke has jumped Auburn in the NET. Those are some flawed rankings. I know Duke controls the games better but that’s because they’re playing crappy teams. Auburn is 14-2 Quad 1 and Duke is 6-3. Duke is feasting Q3 and 4 as they’re 14-0 there while Auburn is 6-0. Both are 5-0 Q2. So Auburn has the far tougher schedule and better record yet Duke moved ahead of them. It literally makes zero sense.
 
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#22,259
#22,259
hUTch2002 said:
Wow! Duke has jumped Auburn in the NET. Those are some flawed rankings. I know Duke controls the games better but that’s because they’re playing crappy teams. Auburn is 14-2 Quad 1 and Duke is 6-3. Duke is feasting Q3 and 4 as they’re 14-0 there while Auburn is 6-0. Both are 5-0 Q2. So Auburn has the far tougher schedule and better record yet Duke moved ahead of them. It literally makes zero sense.
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They jumped them in KenPom over the weekend, too...at least that is when I noticed it. They have a significant lead. Very weird hiw metrics seem to favor Duke, which would suggest that beating the pants off of weaker opponents supercedes beating solid (NCAAT-level) competition by a handful of possessions. There's no other explanation.
 
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#22,260
#22,260
hUTch2002 said:
Wow! Duke has jumped Auburn in the NET. Those are some flawed rankings. I know Duke controls the games better but that’s because they’re playing crappy teams. Auburn is 14-2 Quad 1 and Duke is 6-3. Duke is feasting Q3 and 4 as they’re 14-0 there while Auburn is 6-0. Both are 5-0 Q2. So Auburn has the far tougher schedule and better record yet Duke moved ahead of them. It literally makes zero sense.
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Surprised. lol…. Duke is going get the eddy treatment rest the way ….because of Flagg
 
#22,261
#22,261
cncchris33 said:
They jumped them in KenPom over the weekend, too...at least that is when I noticed it. They have a significant lead. Very weird hiw metrics seem to favor Duke, which would suggest that beating the pants off of weaker opponents supercedes beating solid (NCAAT-level) competition by a handful of possessions. There's no other explanation.
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I posted this elsewhere but it’s more than that. Duke has the highest KP score ever if the season ended today…
 
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#22,263
#22,263
omghulkhands said:
I posted this elsewhere but it’s more than that. Duke has the highest KP score ever if the season ended today…
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I find it hard to believe that this Duke team is the best team to ever set foot on the college basketball court, which just illustrates how flawed these metrics can be. It’s the same metrics that have bubble team Gonzaga as the 9th best team in the country.

Circling back to Duke, I think I’d take the Zion Williamson team over this one just from the Duke standpoint not to mention I can think of at least 5-10 teams that I’d probably prefer over THIS Duke team. The Anthony Davis Kentucky team??? Man, hard to believe the stats think so highly of Duke.
 
#22,264
#22,264
TheMookieMonster said:
I find it hard to believe that this Duke team is the best team to ever set foot on the college basketball court, which just illustrates how flawed these metrics can be. It’s the same metrics that have bubble team Gonzaga as the 9th best team in the country.

Circling back to Duke, I think I’d take the Zion Williamson team over this one just from the Duke standpoint not to mention I can think of at least 5-10 teams that I’d probably prefer over THIS Duke team. The Anthony Davis Kentucky team??? Man, hard to believe the stats think so highly of Duke.
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As a minor correction. The stat isnt saying it’s the best team in the last 24 years.

It’s the best team relative to the field of 364 in a given year.

You can’t use the stat to compare previous seasons really.

I think it could be part of a trend in CBB because UCONN last year also kinda lapped the pack.

The portal is enabling talent to flow up and create better teams than ever. And as such, lowering the competition floor. Making some of these disparities possible.

(Meaning the top teams are better than ever. And the bottom and middling teams are worse than ever. And this can cause stat inflation at the top because it’s zero sum)
 
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#22,265
#22,265
omghulkhands said:
As a minor correction. The stat isnt saying it’s the best team in the last 24 years.

It’s the best team relative to the field of 364 in a given year.

You can’t use the stat to compare previous seasons really.

I think it could be part of a trend in CBB because UCONN last year also kinda lapped the pack.

The portal is enabling talent to flow up and create better teams than ever. And as such, lowering the competition floor. Making some of these disparities possible.

(Meaning the top teams are better than ever. And the bottom and middling teams are worse than ever. And this can cause stat inflation at the top because it’s zero sum)
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Was reading some stuff about this, I know we’ve discussed it some recently too…I think it’s a huge aspect of the way the game is shifting, it doesn’t mean Duke is the best or most talented necessarily, but what it does mean is that they are the most efficient. Saw someone posting it about the NBA, some of the worst teams in todays NBA from an offensive standpoint have a higher efficiency than the best Bulls teams with Jordan, this obviously doesn’t mean they’re better, but they’re more efficient, especially offensively, than those teams were. The continued design and importance of the 3 ball has really morphed the game, you look at how those classic teams played and they’d be scratching their heads at todays game.
 
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#22,266
#22,266
In a similar vain. If the season ended today, this would be the highest KP rated UT team in the history of the model.

By a wide margin…

Our net rating is 31.39

A full 5 points better than last year and the 2019 team. Which is an enormous margin difference.
 
#22,267
#22,267
omghulkhands said:
In a similar vain. If the season ended today, this would be the highest KP rated UT team in the history of the model.

By a wide margin…

Our net rating is 31.39

A full 5 points better than last year and the 2019 team. Which is an enormous margin difference.
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I remember some of the arguments last year being that outside of UCONN and Purdue the top seed lines were weaker than expected. Now, less than a year later, you have a crop of 6 teams that may be the best crop of 1-seeds (statistically) we’ve ever seen. Just a huge swing.

I did not realize we were that far ahead in KP from last year’s team. For some reason I thought they were close to a 28-29 rating and not a 26. That’s wild.
 
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#22,268
#22,268
bleedingTNorange said:
Was reading some stuff about this, I know we’ve discussed it some recently too…I think it’s a huge aspect of the way the game is shifting, it doesn’t mean Duke is the best or most talented necessarily, but what it does mean is that they are the most efficient. Saw someone posting it about the NBA, some of the worst teams in todays NBA from an offensive standpoint have a higher efficiency than the best Bulls teams with Jordan, this obviously doesn’t mean they’re better, but they’re more efficient, especially offensively, than those teams were. The continued design and importance of the 3 ball has really morphed the game, you look at how those classic teams played and they’d be scratching their heads at todays game.
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I love this topic. It’s something I could wax poetic on all day long.

But yes, I agree and I do think KenPom pretty much accomplishes what it sets out to do when you consider the eye test.

Duke and Auburn are IMO, the most efficient and consistent teams this year. Just as KP says.

In fact. A lot of people have said this about Auburn. That they don’t really look that part of a clear cut #1.

And I agree with that. They aren’t a juggernaut. (Which I would argue Purdue and UCONN last year were Juggernauts for comparison sake) but they are very consistent. And that is their strength. Consistency.

Now what KP doesn’t do is tell us is how good on a given night a more volatile team can play.

Case in point, Alabama. I think Alabama’s peak is better than Auburn’s. But they have a lot more volatility in their consistency.
 
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#22,269
#22,269
TheMookieMonster said:
I remember some of the arguments last year being that outside of UCONN and Purdue the top seed lines were weaker than expected. Now, less than a year later, you have a crop of 6 teams that may be the best crop of 1-seeds (statistically) we’ve ever seen. Just a huge swing.

I did not realize we were that far ahead in KP from last year’s team. For some reason I thought they were close to a 28-29 rating and not a 26. That’s wild.
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I am also of the opinion that last year, UCONN and Purdue were actually a full tier above everyone else. And it’s funny cause it even played out that way in the tournament (I’d have felt that way whether they did or didn’t meet in the final fwiw)

This year, being someone that watches a lot of ball as many of yall do, I don’t feel that way.

I do think Duke, Auburn and Houston are little better than everyone else. But not a lot better.

To me, those are the 3 best teams.

Then it’s us, Florida, Bama and…Michigan State not far behind. With a healthy Iowa State in that mix too. But they aren’t healthy right now.
 
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#22,270
#22,270
cncchris33 said:
They jumped them in KenPom over the weekend, too...at least that is when I noticed it. They have a significant lead. Very weird hiw metrics seem to favor Duke, which would suggest that beating the pants off of weaker opponents supercedes beating solid (NCAAT-level) competition by a handful of possessions. There's no other explanation.
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I had noticed the kenpom too and I get it somewhat as that’s not about wins and losses, it’s about efficiency, which should lead to wins and losses of course. The only thing I can think of is maybe NET relies upon kenpom or something very similar to it.
 
#22,271
#22,271
Bigorangefan 98 said:
Surprised. lol…. Duke is going get the eddy treatment rest the way ….because of Flagg
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It would help if they’d publish the NET formula but alas. No doubt Duke will get more favorable treatment than usual but this is formulaic. Barring a couple unexpected losses, Auburn will be the overall 1 seed, surely.
 
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#22,273
#22,273
hUTch2002 said:
I had noticed the kenpom too and I get it somewhat as that’s not about wins and losses, it’s about efficiency, which should lead to wins and losses of course. The only thing I can think of is maybe NET relies upon kenpom or something very similar to it.
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Net does have an efficiency component.
 
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#22,274
#22,274
VolGee4 said:
Net does have an officiebcy component.
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Based on the season results I would argue the weighting of that is too much. Without question, Auburn has played a far tougher schedule and they have a better overall record against that schedule. Granted, most years you don’t get this kind of disparity between schedules at the top, not from Power 5 teams.
 
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#22,275
#22,275
hUTch2002 said:
Based on the season results I would argue the weighting of that is too much. Without question, Auburn has played a far tougher schedule and they have a better overall record against that schedule. Granted, most years you don’t get this kind of disparity between schedules at the top, not from Power 5 teams.
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The RPI included the opponent’s winning percentage and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage. The NET does not. The RPI had flaws, too.

The NET does have some component of strength of schedule as part of their Team Value Index. Also includes record and where the game is located. Losing a road game is better than losing a home game.

As I said, there is an efficiency component, so something like KenPom is influential. The NET is both results-driven and predictive, which does make it a nice mix.

The quads come out of the index, so you can’t ask why one team is higher with less Q1 wins. The rankings are how you get the quads.

Just looking at it, Duke is first in efficiency and has not lost at home. They played a tough non conference schedule, so it must have been good enough.
 
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