2024 Presidential Race

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#43,983
#43,983
dovervolz said:
Perhaps you'd prefer price controls and rationing.
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You ever notice that when your kid is elementary school age they ask you questions like…”Why can’t the government tell that store to sell things cheaper?”and “Why doesn’t the government just print more money so people have more?”
Most kids thankfully grow out of that. The ones who don’t….become democrats 😉
 
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#43,984
#43,984
evillawyer said:
Why does the GOP hate democracy so much?

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Not sure what part of that is wrong at this point, I mean there might be something in details but this is kind of void of real information. The whole point would be to stop problems before they occur or have a process to fix the issues before they occur or when they are occurring. The 2020 was ripe in that regard because their is not adequate remedies considering the time frame.

Is this a suggestion is all processes shouldn't be improved? Or just when a improved process would not further the cause?

Some of the references are strange as well, because if I were to read the article challenging voters roll would be I guess undemocratic in nature? I would say being able to challenge is a part of basic due process , generally speaking.... in essences that would be for the good.
 
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#43,988
#43,988
BowlBrother85 said:
That is a lie. LOL.

Kamala Harris has a 2 point lead in the Real Clear Polling Average.

www.realclearpolling.com

2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com
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Every response is “that’s a lie”.

Do you know what the “Bradley Effect “ is?? Look it up.

The point I am making is there is a “hidden” group of people that will not tell pollster the truth on who they are voting for. That is a fact. That number is estimated to be between 2.5 - 4%.

Additionally, looking at the National number has little merit. If KH has a 2% advat5age in the national number, there is a high liklyhood that Trump will win the electoral college number and the election. That graph was posted here recently.
 
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#43,990
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#43,991
#43,991
jmacvols1 said:
Peter St Onge, Ph.D.
@profstonge
·
7h
If Jerome Powell cuts 50bp he knows it's a recession. If he cuts 25bp he's in denial 🫡
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Let's play a hypothetical game then. If a 50 bp cut means recession, then do you NOT want the fed to take steps to head off a recession? Under either interpretation (either inflation has cooled enough to bring rates back down OR we're in a recession and need to cut rates to increase economic activity), why would you boo a rate cut? Unless, of course, you just want America to be worse off so your doom and gloom hero can come back into power.
 
#43,992
#43,992
Buddy’s Bandit said:
Every response is “that’s a lie”.

Do you know what the “Bradley Effect “ is?? Look it up.

The point I am making is there is a “hidden” group of people that will not tell pollster the truth on who they are voting for. That is a fact. That number is estimated to be between 2.5 - 4%.

Additionally, looking at the National number has little merit. If KH has a 2% advat5age in the national number, there is a high liklyhood that Trump will win the electoral college number and the election. That graph was posted here recently.
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the national number is meaningless in a tight race. the swing state #s are the key indicator. at this point Trump is doing 3.9 points better than he did in 2020.

for reference when Trump won in 2016 Ds (Clinton) had a +1.6 in swing states. currently they have +1.

assuming the numbers are accurate, Trump is doing better now than he did in 2016 (at this same time).

the race very slightly favors Trump right now but there's a long way to go.
 
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#43,993
#43,993
evillawyer said:
Let's play a hypothetical game then. If a 50 bp cut means recession, then do you NOT want the fed to take steps to head off a recession? Under either interpretation (either inflation has cooled enough to bring rates back down OR we're in a recession and need to cut rates to increase economic activity), why would you boo a rate cut? Unless, of course, you just want America to be worse off so your doom and gloom hero can come back into power.
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a rate cut would not head off a recession - the single that recession is likely is not good for anyone. I have no idea why people booed but 25 basis points isn't something that will head of a recession
 
#43,995
#43,995
Buddy’s Bandit said:
Every response is “that’s a lie”.

Do you know what the “Bradley Effect “ is?? Look it up.

The point I am making is there is a “hidden” group of people that will not tell pollster the truth on who they are voting for. That is a fact. That number is estimated to be between 2.5 - 4%.

Additionally, looking at the National number has little merit. If KH has a 2% advat5age in the national number, there is a high liklyhood that Trump will win the electoral college number and the election. That graph was posted here recently.
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How the hell do pollsters get anyone to say who they're voting for? The last pollster that tried to question me politically had me eating his liver with some fava beans and a nice chianti.

ScreenHunter_9519 Sep. 18 16.12.jpg
 
#43,996
#43,996
Buddy’s Bandit said:
Every response is “that’s a lie”.

Do you know what the “Bradley Effect “ is?? Look it up.

The point I am making is there is a “hidden” group of people that will not tell pollster the truth on who they are voting for. That is a fact. That number is estimated to be between 2.5 - 4%.

Additionally, looking at the National number has little merit. If KH has a 2% advat5age in the national number, there is a high liklyhood that Trump will win the electoral college number and the election. That graph was posted here recently.
Click to expand...
Yes, I'm familiar with Tom Bradley's run for Governor of California. I also know that was way back in 1988. I also know that it certainly wasn't anything more than an incorrect theory in 2008 and 2012 when Barack Obama won his elections handily. There was no hidden vote. The polls were accurate. The "Bradley Effect" is not a "fact." It is a theory. To the extent that this theory ever really was truly applicable ... it has now become antiquated. I wouldn't be counting on that in 2024, if I was a Republican. To assume that the polls are 2.5-4% points off is rather comical.

As far as the polling is concerned, I agree that the battleground state-by-state is a better indicator. However, when you look at the Real Clear Polling state-by-state averages you see that Harris has a lead (albeit a small lead) in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. Those are the only battleground states that she needs
 
#43,997
#43,997
LSU-SIU said:
I think you got your answer in the twitter thread. We have our first Libertarian-Independent voter, who doesn't vote. LG v2.0
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Just like I said, lmao. Dover was talking about Sudden Impact anyway
NashVol11 said:
No, you lied before and you’re saying if I don’t give you attention you’ll go back to lying again. That’s not good faith and not how any of this works
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#43,998
#43,998
Nash, because you won't answer in good faith, a reasonable person could conclude the original assessment is correct. You are able to correct if you wish, but every post you are going further away like LG would. Instead of typing all this, all you have to do is answer.

You are proving me correct and many on the board correct.
 
#43,999
#43,999
evillawyer said:
Let's play a hypothetical game then. If a 50 bp cut means recession, then do you NOT want the fed to take steps to head off a recession? Under either interpretation (either inflation has cooled enough to bring rates back down OR we're in a recession and need to cut rates to increase economic activity), why would you boo a rate cut? Unless, of course, you just want America to be worse off so your doom and gloom hero can come back into power.
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it would show the gov't has been lying about being in a recession, as we know they have lied about unemployment numbers to prop up Biden. This cut will do little if the economy is in a recession (maybe why they left the door open for another half point cut by end of year). The Fed may have just cut the economy into more inflation. Had you rather have the Fed leave the rates alone or raise the rates a quarter point rather than cut the economy into deeper inflation?

edit


 
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volinbham said:
the national number is meaningless in a tight race. the swing state #s are the key indicator. at this point Trump is doing 3.9 points better than he did in 2020.

for reference when Trump won in 2016 Ds (Clinton) had a +1.6 in swing states. currently they have +1.

assuming the numbers are accurate, Trump is doing better now than he did in 2016 (at this same time).

the race very slightly favors Trump right now but there's a long way to go.
Click to expand...
I disagree. I think the polling data favors Harris and they have been trending her way for a while now. North Carolina is even in play.
 
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