Blue Chip ratio among teams that have won national championships.

[Brave Volunteer]

Blue-Chip Ratio 2024: These 16 college football teams can actually win the national championship

www-cbssports-com.cdn.ampproject.org

This is a very interesting read and kind of a sober reminder of where Tennessee currently sits in the pecking order of team blue chip talent

In a nutshell, no team since 2011 has won a natty that didn't have a team blue chip ratio above 50% and only 3 of those 13 teams won it with a ratio below 60%...

2023: Michigan (54%)
2016: Clemson (53%)
2013: FSU (53%)

And what do all 3 of those teams have in common? Yep, none of them are in the SEC.

Where does Tennessee sit with its current roster? They are at 46% and out of the top 16.

I say all this just to illustrate that coach Huepel and his staff still have a lot of work to do to get our team talent level to a point where we can seriously compete for championships. If they can swing a top 5 class this year, that would be an excellent start! But I'd say we are still a couple of top 5 recruiting classes away from busting through to that 50-60% barrier.

A couple of notes, 1.) this does not take into account the transfer portal because according to the study, it has yet to make a significant impact in terms of the teams who won. And 2.) It remains to be seen if the expanded 12 team playoffs has any impact on this.

 

[WillisWG]

Jimmys and Joes got to have them .

 

[EZE]

OP, cmon man, there is no room for such objective analysis on VolNation…

 

[Brave Volunteer]

OP, cmon man, there is no room for such objective analysis on VolNation…

Lol then this thread will quickly disappear into obscurity.

 

[adam.vol]

Am I missing something or did the article fail to say which rating website that it used to make this study?

Nice write up. I’m unimpressed with the article, not your post. I expect that the AP preseason poll or the coach’s poll would narrow the prediction down even closer than the top 15. When’s the last time someone who wasn’t preseason top 10 won the national title?


Saban is gone and the underdogs will have their day again.

 

[Brave Volunteer]

Am I missing something or did the article fail to say which rating website that it used to make this study?

Nice write up. I’m unimpressed with the article, not your post. I expect that the AP preseason poll or the coach’s poll would narrow the prediction down even closer than the top 15. When’s the last time someone who wasn’t preseason top 10 won the national title?


Saban is gone and the underdogs will have their day again.

I believe they mentioned 247 as their source regarding the rankings.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

The data is pretty clear. Just look at the national championship teams of say the past 10 years. Almost every one of them have a pretty high blue chip ratio. Some fans just don’t want to see it but the teams that win championships have the most high 4and 5* players. Michigan doesn’t count because they cheated. Clemson was an outlier.

 

[KTrain]

Am I missing something or did the article fail to say which rating website that it used to make this study?

Nice write up. I’m unimpressed with the article, not your post. I expect that the AP preseason poll or the coach’s poll would narrow the prediction down even closer than the top 15. When’s the last time someone who wasn’t preseason top 10 won the national title?


Saban is gone and the underdogs will have their day again.

I think Auburn with Cam Newton, where just outside the Top 20 and won it last I remember.

 

[Pride85]

Blue-Chip Ratio 2024: These 16 college football teams can actually win the national championship

www-cbssports-com.cdn.ampproject.org

This is a very interesting read and kind of a sober reminder of where Tennessee currently sits in the pecking order of team blue chip talent

In a nutshell, no team since 2011 has won a natty that didn't have a team blue chip ratio above 50% and only 3 of those 13 teams won it with a ratio below 60%...

2023: Michigan (54%)
2016: Clemson (53%)
2013: FSU (53%)

And what do all 3 of those teams have in common? Yep, none of them are in the SEC.

Where does Tennessee sit with its current roster? They are at 46% and out of the top 16.

I say all this just to illustrate that coach Huepel and his staff still have a lot of work to do to get our team talent level to a point where we can seriously compete for championships. If they can swing a top 5 class this year, that would be an excellent start! But I'd say we are still a couple of top 5 recruiting classes away from busting through to that 50-60% barrier.

A couple of notes, 1.) this does not take into account the transfer portal because according to the study, it has yet to make a significant impact in terms of the teams who won. And 2.) It remains to be seen if the expanded 12 team playoffs has any impact on this.

How many times are we going to beat this topic to death. Based on this, we just give up and don't even try to support the team. We can't possibly win the National championship so what is the point of playing the season. It is funny, there are those on here who detest stats, unless it fits some form of storyline. Our coach has gotten the absolute most possible out of his roster in the THREE years he has been here. This is by far the best overall roster he has had. In my opinion, he could be the coach that breaks the trend. It would be interesting to see what the blue chip ratios for UT have been in the 13 year timespan this data represents.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

How many times are we going to beat this topic to death. Based on this, we just give up and don't even try to support the team. We can't possibly win the National championship so what is the point of playing the season. It is funny, there are those on here who detest stats, unless it fits some form of storyline. Our coach has gotten the absolute most possible out of his roster in the THREE years he has been here. This is by far the best overall roster he has had. In my opinion, he could be the coach that breaks the trend. It would be interesting to see what the blue chip ratios for UT have been in the 13 year timespan this data represents.

Yeah clearly we should just give up. We shouldn’t ever be any out team to sign elite classes to compete for championships. Yeah that’s what everyone is thinking. Good grief.

Could Heupel be the coach that breaks the trend? Absolutely. The likelihood of that is slim. The bottom line is we have to recruit better.

 

[YankeeVol]

How many times are we going to beat this topic to death. Based on this, we just give up and don't even try to support the team. We can't possibly win the National championship so what is the point of playing the season. It is funny, there are those on here who detest stats, unless it fits some form of storyline. Our coach has gotten the absolute most possible out of his roster in the THREE years he has been here. This is by far the best overall roster he has had. In my opinion, he could be the coach that breaks the trend. It would be interesting to see what the blue chip ratios for UT have been in the 13 year timespan this data represents.

LOL. Literally NO ONE is saying that.

 

[MemphisVol77]

LOL. Literally NO ONE is saying that.

Even the article doesnt say that. It says we could be an outlier.

By the "narrowly misses the minimum threshold + transcendent QB" standard, Tennessee (46%) is the most obvious candidate to bust the ratio in 2024. QB Nico Iamaleava has special physical talent, and if Tennessee can stay healthy at offensive line and in the secondary, perhaps the Volunteers could pull off something special.

 

[bigorangepoppa]

How long has it been since Tennessee even had a small chance of signing a high 4* or 5* recruit before Heupel? Butch's first year was an outlier for the rest of his tenure.

The talent level choosing Tennessee now has improved drastically since Heupel was hired. The product he puts on the field is exciting to watch, Hasn't had a losing season since he's been here, even with the attrition from the Pruitt debacle.

I don't see any reason to think Tennessee won't be a destination for even more and better talent in the future. Hope I'm around to see the fruits of his labor in the next couple of years.

 

[Scot Harvath]

An outlier. First team to win a Natty with under 50% blue chippers. I like the Heup of that. Let's do it. I like our Jimmies and Joes. GBO.

 

[ntxVOL]

Heupel's recruiting has been steadily improving year over year. I feel like it's at a point we need a good season to keep that going. Less than 9 wins could be a problem. It's such a tough hill to climb in today's SEC. Hopefully the breaks fall our way and the team takes advantage this season.

 

[Brave Volunteer]

How many times are we going to beat this topic to death. Based on this, we just give up and don't even try to support the team. We can't possibly win the National championship so what is the point of playing the season. It is funny, there are those on here who detest stats, unless it fits some form of storyline. Our coach has gotten the absolute most possible out of his roster in the THREE years he has been here. This is by far the best overall roster he has had. In my opinion, he could be the coach that breaks the trend. It would be interesting to see what the blue chip ratios for UT have been in the 13 year timespan this data represents.

It boils down to these two questions as far as I'm concerned...

1.) How do we define achievable success, based on the tools we have at our disposal right now?

2.) Is the program demonstrating a reasonably positive trajectory year over year?

I personally like the blue chip ratio as an impartial metric to help determine how we can define expectations/success year over year. Naturally as that ratio climbs, so should our expectations. I'm not saying it's the ONLY tool, but I think it strongly reinforces the idea that players win ball games. We can praise CJH for his X's and O's skills. We can praise him for the culture he's built here. But to win games and, more importantly, championships, you need RLD's!

 

[Adam2014]

Here are the blue chip rankings per recruiting class over the past few years for Tennessee. The staff has done a wonderful job improving the blue chip ranking per class. IF we can make it to the playoff this year, then I think we can routinely recruit above 60%.

2021: 31.25%
2022: 43.48%
2023: 46.15%
2024: 57.14%
2025: 57.14% (Add Sanders and Konanbanny and it goes to 60.8%)
2026: 100% (haha)

 

[Brave Volunteer]

Here are the blue chip rankings over the past few years for Tennessee. The staff has done a wonderful job improving the blue chip ranking. IF we can make it to the playoff this year, then I think we can routinely get above 60%.

2021: 31.25%
2022: 43.48%
2023: 46.15%
2024: 57.14%
2025: 57.14% (Add Sanders and Konanbanny and it goes to 60.8%)
2026: 100% (haha)

Yeah, that's great! Considering where the program was when CJH took over, that is a very good metric to judge the trajectory of our roster talent!

 

[busper]

Blue-Chip Ratio 2024: These 16 college football teams can actually win the national championship

www-cbssports-com.cdn.ampproject.org

This is a very interesting read and kind of a sober reminder of where Tennessee currently sits in the pecking order of team blue chip talent

In a nutshell, no team since 2011 has won a natty that didn't have a team blue chip ratio above 50% and only 3 of those 13 teams won it with a ratio below 60%...

2023: Michigan (54%)
2016: Clemson (53%)
2013: FSU (53%)

And what do all 3 of those teams have in common? Yep, none of them are in the SEC.

Where does Tennessee sit with its current roster? They are at 46% and out of the top 16.

I say all this just to illustrate that coach Huepel and his staff still have a lot of work to do to get our team talent level to a point where we can seriously compete for championships. If they can swing a top 5 class this year, that would be an excellent start! But I'd say we are still a couple of top 5 recruiting classes away from busting through to that 50-60% barrier.

A couple of notes, 1.) this does not take into account the transfer portal because according to the study, it has yet to make a significant impact in terms of the teams who won. And 2.) It remains to be seen if the expanded 12 team playoffs has any impact on this.

Really

 

[Adam2014]

The highest blue chip ratio I can find (for ON3) was 72% in 2005... Since then, we have signed a couple of classes with 57%. That is sad, because I think we are certainly capable of recruiting in the 70% wise for blue chips. It is just going to take some time to get there. We are on a good track.

Here is a mind blowing fact: Oregon's class this year as a blue chip percentage of 92%! That is wild. Georgia is the next closet at 86%.

 

[Brave Volunteer]

Really

Really what? If you're going to post, add something to the conversation!

 

[lawgator1]

A couple of notes, 1.) this does not take into account the transfer portal because according to the study, it has yet to make a significant impact in terms of the teams who won.

/end thread

 

[orangemadam]

Patience. We are not there yet, won't be this season either.

Give it 2-3 more years. I am still concerned about our secondary, looks like our achilles heel again this year.

Everyone still on board with WM? I'm not convinced. Concerns at safety. Hope we don't play a passing
team other than Stetson steam-rolling us in the secondary.

 

[Vol865]

12 team playoff adds another variable to this

 

[VFL-82-JP]

In a nutshell, no team since 2011 has won a natty that didn't have a team blue chip ratio above 50% and only 3 of those 13 teams won it with a ratio below 60%...

Where does Tennessee sit with its current roster? They are at 46% and out of the top 16.

Here are the blue chip rankings over the past few years for Tennessee. The staff has done a wonderful job improving the blue chip ranking. IF we can make it to the playoff this year, then I think we can routinely get above 60%.

2023: 46.15%
2024: 57.14%

So help me understand these two posts in comparison to one another.

Brave says we're currently at 46%, and can't win a national title without being above 50%, preferably above 60%.

Adam says we're at 57% (46% was last year, according to his numbers). That puts us firmly in national title contention range.

So which are we, 46% or 57%? Please explain as if I'm a recruiting neophyte, because I honestly don't follow the stars much at all.

Thanks!

Patience. We are not there yet, won't be this season either.

Give it 2-3 more years. I am still concerned about our secondary, looks like our achilles heel again this year.

Everyone still on board with WM? I'm not convinced. Concerns at safety. Hope we don't play a passing
team other than Stetson steam-rolling us in the secondary.

According to what I'm reading up above, we may already be there. Right?

Go Vols!