Tennessee's Chances ??

[Delmar]

Edey is a bad matchup for everyone at 7’4”. But I would think with our two seven footers we probably matchup as well or better than anyone else in the country. Plav is very physical too. We are better at every other position also. Would be an interesting game I think.

Edey is a bad matchup for nearly every team. But we do have 15 fouls to use on him with some physical defense. A lot of teams don’t have that luxury. Hold him down as best we can and stop the rest of them.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

6, 2, 1, 2, 1, 9, 3, 3, 7, 2, 19, 1, 1, 2, 1, 3, 2, 9, 17, 4

Here's the offensive KenPom rankings for the past 20 years national champs (excluding the Kemba year) or presumed #1 overall seed for COVID year.

I agree our offensive efficiency is better than it was a month ago. If the trend continues, then we will be in the teens by the end of the season and history is slightly more favorable. I do want to see if trend continues or if it's partially being impacted by a weaker confernce (in general) and back loaded SEC schedule that we havent hit yet.....

Yup, those are the numbers of each team that won after the championship game…now what we’re their numbers pre tourney because obviously that’s more relevant?

 

[VolGee4]

6, 2, 1, 2, 1, 9, 3, 3, 7, 2, 19, 1, 1, 2, 1, 3, 2, 9, 17, 4

Here's the offensive KenPom rankings for the past 20 years national champs (excluding the Kemba year) or presumed #1 overall seed for COVID year.

I agree our offensive efficiency is better than it was a month ago. If the trend continues, then we will be in the teens by the end of the season and history is slightly more favorable. I do want to see if trend continues or if it's partially being impacted by a weaker confernce (in general) and back loaded SEC schedule that we havent hit yet.....

Are those numbers post NCAAT? Teams who win the tournament will move up in efficiency numbers. We had this discussion recently. I think 30-40 is the magic number pre-tournament.

Efficiency numbers are also adjusted for the opponent.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Yup, those are the numbers of each team that won after the championship game…now what we’re their numbers pre tourney because obviously that’s more relevant?

They aren't that much different. I know Kansas, Villanova 2x, Baylor were all on Top 5 at end of regular seasons recently. A team's OE isn't going from 30s to 1 in March Madness.

 

[livefaith]

Did y'all know that in the history of the NCAA tournament, that of the teams which have won a national championship for the very first time, in every single case, had never won a title previously? So we definitely have that in our favor!

 

[bleedingTNorange]

They aren't that much different. I know Kansas, Villanova 2x, Baylor were all on Top 5 at end of regular seasons recently. A team's OE isn't going from 30s to 1 in March Madness.

A ~20 spot move over 6 game span against good teams is very possible

 

[VolGee4]

They aren't that much different. I know Kansas, Villanova 2x, Baylor were all on Top 5 at end of regular seasons recently. A team's OE isn't going from 30s to 1 in March Madness.

I would guess UNC last year was lower on one side of the ball. This year, ours moved from 59 to 30’s after a few games.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

I would guess UNC last year was lower on one side of the ball. This year, ours moved from 59 to 30’s after a few games.

Going from 14 games played to 21 games played is a 50% increase in games played. Easier to make big moves since each game has bigger impact.

Going from 35 to 41 games is a 17% increase. Much harder to make huge leaps.

We are still in January. Let's see where everything is by the middle of March. Will be able to further digest JJJ games into the data...

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Need to read this @BigOrangeMojo Stop worrying about “top 25 in both offense and defense at KenPom”

Entering 2021 NCAAT Baylor ranked #3 on offense & #44 on defense, post tourney they ranked #2 on offense & #22 on defense. So a 22 spot jump defensively on the tourney.

2015 Duke had the #37 defense, finished #11…a 26 spot jump.

2009 North Carolina had the #37 defense, finished #18…a 19 spot jump.


Being Top 40 in both categories has proven to be the barometer, it helps if you’re elite in one area but can’t be outside 40-45 in the other. As Gassaway goes on to explain though, it’s real simple, look at KP’s Top 5-6 teams, 1 of those is your winner.

 

[spyfish007]

I would love to see Tennessee win it all this year; with our history, it's probably a pipe dream. But this year might be different, and one of those reasons is how the SEC and the blue bloods are really down this year. Would someone who knows and keeps up with NCAA basketball, discuss some teams that would be a bad matchup for UT down the road. Some things I like about this team is the Defense, the fact that they don't depend on just one or two players offensively. One thing that concerns me is do they have that C Lo, or Lamonte Turner who you know is gonna drain the three pointer with 2 seconds on the clock; they haven't needed that since they tend to not ever have close games. Their depth is another big plus also. GBO

We are way out in front out skis on this one. I will however play. I remember the Bulls matching up on Shaq's Magic. The Bulls were way out manned at the 5 spot. They put so much pressure on the ball and this entry passes that it effectively moderated the advantage. I have no doubt we could do the same to Purdue.

I do however worry about bad foul calls for corner 3 point shots to end the game......

 

[VolGee4]

Going from 14 games played to 21 games played is a 50% increase in games played. Easier to make big moves since each game has bigger impact.

Going from 35 to 41 games is a 17% increase. Much harder to make huge leaps.

We are still in January. Let's see where everything is by the middle of March. Will be able to further digest JJJ games into the data...

I understand, but as I said previously, the magic number to contend is roughly top 30ish. We jumped 20 spots on offense after 2 games this year after conference play started.

We are currently 30 on offense after being 59 not too long ago.

 

[Volwonder1]

We would have to double team just about every time once he got touches in the paint.

Maybe go right at him and try to get him into foul trouble early. I mean 7ft4in is just nuts

 

[Volnuck]

I would love to see Tennessee win it all this year; with our history, it's probably a pipe dream. But this year might be different, and one of those reasons is how the SEC and the blue bloods are really down this year. Would someone who knows and keeps up with NCAA basketball, discuss some teams that would be a bad matchup for UT down the road. Some things I like about this team is the Defense, the fact that they don't depend on just one or two players offensively. One thing that concerns me is do they have that C Lo, or Lamonte Turner who you know is gonna drain the three pointer with 2 seconds on the clock; they haven't needed that since they tend to not ever have close games. Their depth is another big plus also. GBO

If we could just be average every night offensively, we would be in great shape for a run. Our defense will be there every night, so that is a huge positive. However, we either shoot 65% or 25%, there is no happy middle ground. We Can drill Kansas & Texas but fall flat against Colorado & a questionable Kentucky team at home. Tennessee basketball has never been in better shape as a program, but I pray we can be more consistent offensively As we head towards March.

 

[NighthawkVol]

So, besides Purdue, who are the matchups we hope to avoid? I mean, teams we could meet on first or second weekend?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

So, besides Purdue, who are the matchups we hope to avoid? I mean, teams we could meet on first or second weekend?

It’s just too early for this discussion imo, we aren’t sure yet what we will look like the rest of the way and what teams/if any will give us trouble. Then add in that we could be 1-4 seed still, the list of potential opponents is a mile long, who’s gonna be on a hot streak in a month, too many unknowns.

 

[JohnnyJava]

6, 2, 1, 2, 1, 9, 3, 3, 7, 2, 19, 1, 1, 2, 1, 3, 2, 9, 17, 4

Here's the offensive KenPom rankings for the past 20 years national champs (excluding the Kemba year) or presumed #1 overall seed for COVID year.

I agree our offensive efficiency is better than it was a month ago. If the trend continues, then we will be in the teens by the end of the season and history is slightly more favorable. I do want to see if trend continues or if it's partially being impacted by a weaker confernce (in general) and back loaded SEC schedule that we havent hit yet.....

The difference between our current #30 offensive ranking and #2 is right at 4 pts per game, adjusting for our tempo. It’s not a huge difference especially if we play defense like we have been.

 

[Volfan1000]

Zach Edey at Purdue is a bad matchup for everybody. TN has players to throw at excellent opponents at any other position. But 7’4”, 285 makes Uros seem tiny. Aidoo and Awaka wouldn’t have much of a chance once Edey has the ball down low. ON might be able to match his offensive output.

We have 25 or 30 fouls that we can use against Edey if you include Phillips and JJJ guarding him occasionally along with the post guys if Tennessee should get that far in the tournament.

 

[Volfan1000]

Rob Lewis said on the Volquest podcast today that if Purdue should have two bigs on the floor that would erase Tennessee's small ball lineup and cause Barnes to possibly play Aidoo and Plavsic together to match up.

Teams like Arkansas and Purdue will give Tennessee fits with their length.

 

[Zues1]

A final four in my lifetime would be nice.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Rob Lewis said on the Volquest podcast today that if Purdue should have two bigs on the floor that would erase Tennessee's small ball lineup and cause Barnes to possibly play Aidoo and Plavsic together to match up.

Teams like Arkansas and Purdue will give Tennessee fits with their length.

Here’s the thing about adjustment, they work both ways…if you can expose Edey with small ball by pushing tempo and having a 5 man in Nkamhoua that can pull him out to the 3pt line as well as run PnR and beat him to the hoop then maybe you force Purdue to adjust.

 

[wtmvol]

So, besides Purdue, who are the matchups we hope to avoid? I mean, teams we could meet on first or second weekend?

Just looking at teams currently projected in the 7-10 seed range for a 2nd round opponent...

I want no part of:
Creighton
North Carolina

Also, if Saint Mary's were to fall a bit I want no part of them either. They've got multiple dudes at +40% from 3, and I could see them as a dark horse contender for a F4

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Just looking at teams currently projected in the 7-10 seed range for a 2nd round opponent...

I want no part of:
Creighton
North Carolina

Also, if Saint Mary's were to fall a bit I want no part of them either. They've got multiple dudes at +40% from 3, and I could see them as a dark horse contender for a F4

Yea, Creighton is one to watch, doesn’t seem likely at all that Saint Mary’s would drop far enough to be a 2nd round matchup for a 1/2 seed meaning they’d be 7-10 seed, but if they do yea. Creighton right now is such an outlier, they’re borderline Top 10 in KP but projected around 8/9 seed, that’s not a matchup anyone wants to get, need them to keep winning and move up above that 7 line.

 

[VOLtaism]

I would love to see Tennessee win it all this year; with our history, it's probably a pipe dream. But this year might be different, and one of those reasons is how the SEC and the blue bloods are really down this year. Would someone who knows and keeps up with NCAA basketball, discuss some teams that would be a bad matchup for UT down the road. Some things I like about this team is the Defense, the fact that they don't depend on just one or two players offensively. One thing that concerns me is do they have that C Lo, or Lamonte Turner who you know is gonna drain the three pointer with 2 seconds on the clock; they haven't needed that since they tend to not ever have close games. Their depth is another big plus also. GBO

They have the same chance they had last year but they still need a good draw. I think the team overall is much better since Z started playing so well at the point. They can go 10 deep and run a team off the court, they have rim protetction and they stretch the defense with their 3 point ability. Defenseive intensity does not have an off night.

 

[branchvol]

I would love to see Tennessee win it all this year; with our history, it's probably a pipe dream. But this year might be different, and one of those reasons is how the SEC and the blue bloods are really down this year. Would someone who knows and keeps up with NCAA basketball, discuss some teams that would be a bad matchup for UT down the road. Some things I like about this team is the Defense, the fact that they don't depend on just one or two players offensively. One thing that concerns me is do they have that C Lo, or Lamonte Turner who you know is gonna drain the three pointer with 2 seconds on the clock; they haven't needed that since they tend to not ever have close games. Their depth is another big plus also. GBO

Chances a slim to none because we always unfortunately underachieve during tournaments..but I’d love to c a final four appearance!!

 

[NighthawkVol]

Just looking at teams currently projected in the 7-10 seed range for a 2nd round opponent...

I want no part of:
Creighton
North Carolina

Also, if Saint Mary's were to fall a bit I want no part of them either. They've got multiple dudes at +40% from 3, and I could see them as a dark horse contender for a F4

What are your thoughts on UConn and Indiana as potential Sweet 16 matchups? I don't know much about UConn, other than the fact they beat Alabama. Indiana has big guards, which concerns me.