What % shot we have making playoffs with 0-1-2 losses

#3
#3
utfantilidie said:
0=100%
1=90%
2=33%
Realistic expectations?
A lot of top teams struggling this year with nobody’s really.
Click to expand...

If Tennessee only has 1 loss and it's to Alabama in the regular season, we're in. Here's why...because that means we will have won the East and made the SECCG and won that.

If Tennessee only has 1 loss and it's in the SECCG, we're in. Because that means we beat everyone in the regular season, went to Atlanta ranked #1 or #2 (probably #1) and there's no way we fall below 4. Precedent says so.

If Tennessee has 1 loss and it's to Georgia, it probably depends on what happens in the SECCG. If Georgia beats Bama, Tennessee is in.

If Tennessee has 2 losses, it would be a less that 50% chance, but could happen. I don't see 3 SEC teams making it, so one of Georgia or Bama would have to have 2 or more losses and be left out.

So yeah, your % are probably correct.
 
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#4
#4
GregAmsler said:
If Tennessee only has 1 loss and it's to Alabama in the regular season, we're in. Here's why...because that means we will have won the East and made the SECCG and won that.

If Tennessee only has 1 loss and it's in the SECCG, we're in. Because that means we beat everyone in the regular season, went to Atlanta ranked #1 or #2 (probably #1) and there's no way we fall below 4. Precedent says so.

If Tennessee has 1 loss and it's to Georgia, it probably depends on what happens in the SECCG. If Georgia beats Bama, Tennessee is in.

If Tennessee has 2 losses, it would be a less that 50% chance, but could happen. I don't see 3 SEC teams making it, so one of Georgia or Bama would have to have 2 or more losses and be left out.

So yeah, your % are probably correct.
Click to expand...

I think this is pretty much it. 2 losses, out, because that will be 2 regular season losses or 2 losses to Bama. 1 loss I would think gets us in. The only way I think we are out with 1 loss is if that is to UGA and then UGA goes in undefeated to the SECCG and gets beaten by 1 loss (us) Bama. Then those 2 teams with 1 loss go to the playoffs in my opinion. We would then show the real power and vitriol of #VolTwitter.

As a side note, how insane is it that we are even entertaining these conversations 17 games into CJH's tenure?
 
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#7
#7
The offense will win a bunch of games, but the defense will lose a few......................

2% chance.......................
 
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#8
#8
We're in with 0 or 1 loss.

2 would be tricky, because it either means we likely lose to both Bama and Georgia, or we lose the SECCG (probably to Bama).
 
#9
#9
GregAmsler said:
If Tennessee only has 1 loss and it's to Alabama in the regular season, we're in. Here's why...because that means we will have won the East and made the SECCG and won that.

If Tennessee only has 1 loss and it's in the SECCG, we're in. Because that means we beat everyone in the regular season, went to Atlanta ranked #1 or #2 (probably #1) and there's no way we fall below 4. Precedent says so.

If Tennessee has 1 loss and it's to Georgia, it probably depends on what happens in the SECCG. If Georgia beats Bama, Tennessee is in.

If Tennessee has 2 losses, it would be a less that 50% chance, but could happen. I don't see 3 SEC teams making it, so one of Georgia or Bama would have to have 2 or more losses and be left out.

So yeah, your % are probably correct.
Click to expand...

I feel like our best shot is beating Bama but losing to UGA and missing the SECCG.

Hard to imagine making it to Atlanta and escaping with only 1 loss
 
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#10
#10
GregAmsler said:
If Tennessee only has 1 loss and it's to Alabama in the regular season, we're in. Here's why...because that means we will have won the East and made the SECCG and won that.

If Tennessee only has 1 loss and it's in the SECCG, we're in. Because that means we beat everyone in the regular season, went to Atlanta ranked #1 or #2 (probably #1) and there's no way we fall below 4. Precedent says so.

If Tennessee has 1 loss and it's to Georgia, it probably depends on what happens in the SECCG. If Georgia beats Bama, Tennessee is in.

If Tennessee has 2 losses, it would be a less that 50% chance, but could happen. I don't see 3 SEC teams making it, so one of Georgia or Bama would have to have 2 or more losses and be left out.

So yeah, your % are probably correct.
Click to expand...
We will beat Alabama
 
#14
#14
If we lose one I think we could get in. It would have to be us beating bama in Knoxville, and losing in Athens. Bama drops 2, but still makes the seccg, and beats Georgia, and they put us in with one loss over bama with two. But who knows, I don't, that made my head hurt trying to figure out🤣
 
#15
#15
GregAmsler said:
If Tennessee has 1 loss and it's to Georgia, it probably depends on what happens in the SECCG. If Georgia beats Bama, Tennessee is in.
Click to expand...

This is best case scenario. Win all regular season games, except Ga. They play bama in SECCG, beat each other up. We, on the other hand, enter the playoffs fresh and ready to do some damage.
 
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#16
#16
I love the Vols. But anyone who watched that defense against UF still talking about SEC championships or playoffs needs to have their head examined. We're a good team, and we'll win some games we should probably lose....but I think the D will cause us to lose some games we should probably win. We're a few years away from being a championship caliber team.

I'd love for it to happen this year for this group of guys, considering all they've been through with Cornbread and 30 of their teammates bailing on them to hit the portal, but all of ya'll need to come on back down to planet earth. I'll be happy with a win in a NY6 bowl and I want these VFL Sr's to ball out this year so they can get that $$$ in the NFL draft next spring.
 
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#17
#17
ACC and PAC12 teams will all have at least one loss.

Only one or none B1G/SEC/B12 team can be undefeated in regular season.

If you only have one loss in SEC, should be in unless a 4 loss Notre Dame team gets voted ahead of us.
 
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#19
#19
volinSmyrna said:
I think this is pretty much it. 2 losses, out, because that will be 2 regular season losses or 2 losses to Bama. 1 loss I would think gets us in. The only way I think we are out with 1 loss is if that is to UGA and then UGA goes in undefeated to the SECCG and gets beaten by 1 loss (us) Bama. Then those 2 teams with 1 loss go to the playoffs in my opinion. We would then show the real power and vitriol of #VolTwitter.

As a side note, how insane is it that we are even entertaining these conversations 17 games into CJH's tenure?
Click to expand...

Very.
 
#20
#20
joevol33 said:
If we lose one I think we could get in. It would have to be us beating bama in Knoxville, and losing in Athens. Bama drops 2, but still makes the seccg, and beats Georgia, and they put us in with one loss over bama with two. But who knows, I don't, that made my head hurt trying to figure out🤣
Click to expand...
If we were to beat Bama at home but lose in Athens, that would give Bama that one loss and we would need Georgia to win the SECCG to give Bama a 2nd loss. We would definitely make the playoffs because it would mean we beat 2 top 25 teams, 1 top 10, & 1 top 5 with the only loss being to #1 Georgia. We could make the playoffs without playing in the SECCG if we only lose to UGA the rest of the way.
 
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#21
#21
We need to hope for UK to beat Ole Miss, Pitt to win out, and all of our other opponents to beat our non common opponents.
With a strong strength of schedule and 1-2 losses, we can get in
 
#22
#22
GregAmsler said:
If Tennessee only has 1 loss and it's to Alabama in the regular season, we're in. Here's why...because that means we will have won the East and made the SECCG and won that.

If Tennessee only has 1 loss and it's in the SECCG, we're in. Because that means we beat everyone in the regular season, went to Atlanta ranked #1 or #2 (probably #1) and there's no way we fall below 4. Precedent says so.

If Tennessee has 1 loss and it's to Georgia, it probably depends on what happens in the SECCG. If Georgia beats Bama, Tennessee is in.

If Tennessee has 2 losses, it would be a less that 50% chance, but could happen. I don't see 3 SEC teams making it, so one of Georgia or Bama would have to have 2 or more losses and be left out.

So yeah, your % are probably correct.
Click to expand...
2 losses 0%. To think otherwise is naive
 
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#24
#24
utfantilidie said:
0=100%
1=90%
2=33%
Realistic expectations?
A lot of top teams struggling this year with nobody’s really.
Click to expand...
0 = 100%
1 = 65%
2 = 0%

Every year, there are between 0 (rare) and 3 (rare) Power5 teams with no losses. Normally, 1 or 2. Those guys always make the playoffs.

There are usually between 2 and 6 one-loss teams. They fill out the rest of the CFP. Usually 2 or 3 of them are selected. Averages out to about 4 one-loss teams competing for the remaining 2.5 spots. So better than 50/50, but not a lot better.

No 2-loss team has ever made it into the CFP, and none will until it expands to 12 teams.
 
#25
#25
HuntlandVolinColo said:
ACC and PAC12 teams will all have at least one loss.

Only one or none B1G/SEC/B12 team can be undefeated in regular season.

If you only have one loss in SEC, should be in unless a 4 loss Notre Dame team gets voted ahead of us.
Click to expand...
  • ACC can end the regular season with 1 undefeated team: Clemson, NC State, FSU, or Syracuse. They are all in the same division, so only one can escape unscathed.
  • B12 is out. Sure, Kansas is still undefeated, but no one, not even Kansas fans, think that's going to last.
  • B10 could have 2. Minnesota is the only 4-0 in their division, and do not have to play Ohio State or Michigan this year. If they can make it past Penn State in a few weeks, they and the winner of Ohio St - Michigan - Penn State in the other division could both go 12-0.
  • PAC could have 2: USC and Washington don't play in the regular season this year. So they could both conceivably end undefeated.
  • SEC could have 2 as well: UGa and Bama don't meet in the regular season. Technically, Kentucky is in that math, too, but lol. If Tennessee were to go undefeated, of course, we'd drop all the other SEC teams to at least one loss, because we play everyone who is still -0.
Of course, once you add in the conference championship matches, the SEC, PAC, and B10 all drop to max of one.

Which means this could be a rare year when we have four undefeated Power 5 conference champs facing off for the national title.

Not likely to happen, but that would make for a fun CFP, four champions facing off. Unless it's Clemson, Ohio State, USCw, and Bama. That's far too much a repeat of recent years. But something like Penn State, NC State, Washington, and the Volunteers, that'd be hella fun.

Go Vols!
 
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