All things STOCKS

[Carp]

Are you moving a existing 401k? have those funds in a MM?
Is one plan better than the other? You might leave it in the old plan.
You can also put those funds in a new or existing IRA at a brokerage. i.e. Vanguard, Schwab, etc.
You have several options.

I'm leaving the old one where it's at for now until I figure out what I would like to do going forward. It's lost a good amount over the last 6-7 months, like everyone's has. It basically just gave back what it gained it 2021.

They also give me the option to invest directly in the company, but the company's stock has been declining for a little over a year (granted, everything has).

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I'm leaving the old one where it's at for now until I figure out what I would like to do going forward. It's lost a good amount over the last 6-7 months, like everyone's has. It basically just gave back what it gained it 2021.

They also give me the option to invest directly in the company, but the company's stock has been declining for a little over a year (granted, everything has).

It isn’t a good idea to own stock in the company that you work for if it is a large percentage of your investments. It is even worse if a spouse works for the same company. If the company goes south then investments decline while losing the job(s) is a very real possibility. Lots of multi-millionaire Enron employees went broke because their retirement assets were invested in Enron stock.

401(k)s from previous jobs should almost always be converted to an IRA. Every broker can do this. Schwab. ETrade. Fidelity. Ameritrade (soon to be Schwab - Schwab owns Ameritrade). Full service brokers like Morgan-Stanley or BoA/Merrill or JPM or GS or even banks. Keep an eye on the account though. I had a 401(k) from a previous employer that was ported to another administrator by the employer. They tried to take away (or made a “mistake”) and put some of my 100% vested assets into a bucket of not fully vested.

There could be an advantage (that I’m not aware of) of keeping an account from a previous employer wrapped as a 401(k), but in general the 401(k) probably has higher fees and fewer investment options than are available in an IRA.

 

[norrislakevol]

Just my opinion, but the 2020 bear was due to fears of Covid and the lock down and the market recovered pretty quickly. This bear is due to run away inflation which will be a slow and painful process to correct. I see 25,000 or less in our future as we’ve got some serious financial problems now. Again, JMO

I'd say 20,000 as a low for the DOW...at least. This bear market is just beginning and more bad news will be coming in pieces over the next 6 months or longer.

I really think that the fast dip in 2020 due to the shutdowns has got a lot of amateur traders jumping back in waaaaay too early. There are going to be some painful lessons learned by a lot of people unfortunately. If you can time tech stocks right, then long term.....4 or years from now, you'll make a bundle.

 

[Velo Vol]

Time for a bounce?

 

[mrorange211]

Time for a bounce?

I’m in calls again until we hit at least 4200

 

[Velo Vol]

How many of these are going to return to their former glory?

 

[walkenvol]

How many of these are going to return to their former glory?
View attachment 466105

Not sure why anyone would choose to invest in any of these as there is a much better value in many of the proven successful companies since this pullback

 

[walkenvol]

Do you guys view yesterday as anything more than a temporary bump?

 

[Go aeiou]

Do you guys view yesterday as anything more than a temporary bump?

Pretty substantial fall for the indexes even if we have a mild recession.
the biggest thing causing problems now is gas. Money spent on gas can't be spent on other things. That can change quicklu.
OTOH, there are certainly reasons for concerns.

 

[Majors]

I'd say 20,000 as a low for the DOW...at least. This bear market is just beginning and more bad news will be coming in pieces over the next 6 months or longer.

I really think that the fast dip in 2020 due to the shutdowns has got a lot of amateur traders jumping back in waaaaay too early. There are going to be some painful lessons learned by a lot of people unfortunately. If you can time tech stocks right, then long term.....4 or years from now, you'll make a bundle.

20K is not off the table at the current rate, my hope is that we can stay above 25K until November and somehow infuse stability in the markets with a change in Washington. Agree on jumping in early on the techs and small biopharmaceuticals looking to bolster the larger companies portfolio.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Not sure why anyone would choose to invest in any of these as there is a much better value in many of the proven successful companies since this pullback

I like Square, Palantir. WB Discovery, TelaDoc, and either DraftKings or Penn National. Possibly RobinHood and CoinBase with the pullback as indirect crypto exposure. Probably Palantir and WB Discovery the most.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Do you guys view yesterday as anything more than a temporary bump?

It’s good that the pattern of every good rally being abruptly erased a day later as it seems to have been during this dip/pullback. But I is still early today. High frequency traders should be doing very well right now.

Petro prices at the pump will continue to be disruptive to the economy for a year or two. But the stock market could be looking beyond that in the second half of 2022 or early 2023.

Longer term, labor shortages and higher taxes will be a drag. Figuring out how to produce make stuff with labor issues and supply chain challenges will be ongoing. Autonomous vehicles and robotics/automation could be big winners - but the equity markets could still be fairly valued or better in those industries.

 

[Go aeiou]

I like Square, Palantir. WB Discovery, TelaDoc, and either DraftKings or Penn National. Possibly RobinHood and CoinBase with the pullback as indirect crypto exposure. Probably Palantir and WB Discovery the most.

The only two I own are SQ and PLTR. Dumb luck, I bought PLTR almost at bottom, and have bought two more times. Will likely sell some soon.
Upside down in SQ.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The only two I own are SQ and PLTR. Dumb luck, I bought PLTR almost at bottom, and have bought two more times. Will likely sell some soon.
Upside down in SQ.

TelaDoc could follow the pattern that I’ve seen in a lot of health care stocks. Great idea. Stock soars far above reasonable valuation based on the long term potential. Then it has a huge pull back - possibly even below fair current valuations. Then the board agrees to a buyout and the big wave of retail investors that weren’t in before the big run up get screwed. If I get into the telemedicine space it will be the EDOC ETF. But so many of those themed ETFs also turn out to be duds. I had a buy limit on EDOC and dropped the price several times before just cancelling the order entirely.

Gambling is an interesting space. I bought PENN because they don’t have the hotel properties to maintain. They do have a race track or two though. The online gaming industry is a great business, but the stocks might be overvalued. And there’s a good deal of competition. I don’t see the interest from betting consumers falling off in the LT. The $6-$7/gallon gas is taking a bite out of disposable income ATM though. BETZ is the ETF, but it’s lightly traded.

IMO the larger mid caps and mega caps are the best ideas as long as they aren’t loaded up with debt. Lesser capitalized companies will be at a lot of risk as the depressed economies drag on.

The US is better positioned than most. Europe is especially facing challenges with Putin’s behavior not improving. Asia is facing obstacles from China aggression and the US slowly turning toward isolationism. South Korea might hang on. Taiwan is at extreme risk from the CCP. Japan has an aging population and isn’t rich with natural resources but they are rich with capital.

This is a really tough investing environment to get a handle on. Maybe higher interest rates will eventually be beneficial for investors. Bonds will become more attractive as rates rise. Maybe that will in turn pull money out of equities which will lead to a reset in stock prices.

Where aging boomers park and spend their cash will be something to evaluate and watch. Healthcare should be a decades long opportunity. Large defense companies as well since there doesn’t seem to be anything trending away from global hostilities. The domestic gun manufacturers and dealers should do great - but the anti-gun, anti-2H crowd is squawking loudly right now. Companies like Smith and Wesson (moving their HQ to Blount County) just aren’t big enough ($600 million MC) to not be at risk of attacks from liberals.

 

[Velo Vol]

Do you guys view yesterday as anything more than a temporary bump?

I'm thinking the lows are not here yet. How much of a bounce now? I wish I knew!

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I'm thinking the lows are not here yet. How much of a bounce now? I wish I knew!

I think that the lows are close to being here for the pre mid-term elections. But if there isn’t a big drop in the next couple of days I might try a short term trade with a triple leveraged bear ETF.

Bottoms are made on time, not price. We could be sideways for a good while yet.

 

[Rocky_Top_Vol13]

Trevor Lawrence watching at his bitcoin tank...

 

[Go aeiou]

Bought a 2 yr cd at 3.30% today.
If you are convinced that the future in stocks is down, and you're seeking safety 3.30% beats - 5%.
My situation most likely is different. Retired and need to spread the money around(not just equities). I'll buy more CDs or Treasuries when I can get 3.4%.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Bought a 2 yr cd at 3.30% today.
If you are convinced that the future in stocks is down, and you're seeking safety 3.30% beats - 5%.
My situation most likely is different. Retired and need to spread the money around(not just equities). I'll buy more CDs or Treasuries when I can get 3.4%.

And if you change your mind, the penalty to exit a CD early shouldn’t be too bad.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

INTC at 6.23x PE with a 3.89% yield ($1.44 dividend on $6 earnings) isn’t a bad idea rather than owning debt. It was a $40 plus stock for a long time and has quickly fallen From $45 to $36-$38 in just a couple of weeks.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

5 of 30 DJIA components yield over 4.5%. 6 others are 3% plus.

 

[Firebirdparts]

I don't think I'd have used the word "fear" associated with the recession. The QT is necessary; getting inflation under control is necessary, according to the Fed's reason for being. So they're going to cause it. It's not like we don't know.

Anyway, I've certainly watched INTC. I had sold options on it and as a result of those options bought and sold a few times. I don't hate it. I hold MU and I guess one is enough. If we look at intel revenue, it certainly seems to have leveled off. So i guess you need to have an opinion about their long term outcome, but I recognize this has to be "sort of" safe at this point.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I don't think I'd have used the word "fear" associated with the recession. The QT is necessary; getting inflation under control is necessary, according to the Fed's reason for being. So they're going to cause it. It's not like we don't know.

Anyway, I've certainly watched INTC. I had sold options on it and as a result of those options bought and sold a few times. I don't hate it. I hold MU and I guess one is enough. If we look at intel revenue, it certainly seems to have leveled off. So i guess you need to have an opinion about their long term outcome, but I recognize this has to be "sort of" safe at this point.

I fear taxes, deficit spending and the national debt, and globalist US politicians being elected the most.

I’m not too concerned about the interest rates except that it will become a huge factor in the federal budget when there’s $30T plus of debt as it rolls over.

Inflation dominates the financial news, but I wouldn’t expect gas and diesel prices to escalate much from the current levels. Therefore inflation might be peaking right now and could begin to move back toward a reasonable level.

Oddly unemployment is bothersome. But in the opposite of what used to be feared. 10% unemployment what used to crush economies. Now filling jobs when there are 2 open positions for every unemployed worker is what is causing problems. Moving forward wage inflation of low skilled workers could be a bigger problem controlling inflation than fuel prices.

Immigration is simply being horribly managed by the federal government. Properly processing those that want to come here to be productive members of society shouldn’t be that difficult. Instead, for some bizarre reason, porous borders are favored by most that are aligned with one political party. We can use more people that aren’t afraid of hard work.

 

[OldandStillaVol]

5 of 30 DJIA components yield over 4.5%. 6 others are 3% plus.

Thunder - what are those 6 stocks? Also, what do you think of CAT which had a large drop yesterday. Seems to me that the Infrastructure Bill would be a + for CAT.

 

[Velo Vol]

What is the bond market saying?