War in Ukraine

[IluvdoubleD's]

I think they can take it back. It will have to be put in the hands of Ukraine. Every day I'm a little more convinced they will get Crimea back.

 

[allvol123]

It isn't 1945, Russia isn't being invaded and Putin isn't being cornered in his own country. I'm not seeing the Hitler analogy.

What is Putin’s out when this invasion fails and his economy implodes?

 

[Septic]

What is Putin’s out when this invasion fails and his economy implodes?

Hopefully it's a third floor window.

 

[allvol123]

Hopefully it's a third floor window.

Certainly best case.

Hopefully long before he gets nervous about said push happening.

 

[OrangeTsar]

What is Putin’s out when this invasion fails and his economy implodes?

Well, Hitler used a 9 mm and Eva took cyanide…..

 

[allvol123]

Well, Hitler used a 9 mm and Eva took cyanide…..

And the Goebbels killed their kids.

So again, what do people expect a mad man with direct control over nukes is going to do when the walls start closing in. My guess would not be “just kill himself” here.

 

[Vol737]

Hopefully it's a third floor window.

Make it 10th floor for good measure.

 

[OrangeTsar]

And the Goebbels killed their kids.

So again, what do people expect a mad man with direct control over nukes is going to do when the walls start closing in. My guess would not be “just kill himself” here.

The thing we don’t know exactly is how the Chain of Command works for Russian Nuclear forces. One would hope that someone in the military would have the capability to block the launch. We know that Gen Miley reassured his Chinese counterparts that Trump would not be allowed to attack China in his remaining days in office. Does the Russian Command have the ability to make the same promise?
I honestly don’t know

 

[OrangeTsar]

And the Goebbels killed their kids.

So again, what do people expect a mad man with direct control over nukes is going to do when the walls start closing in. My guess would not be “just kill himself” here.

In a World of absolute Monsters, what the Goebbels did to their OWN CHILDREN remains among the most monsterous. There is some (very twisted) logic in killing people you despise, but to calculatingly murder those you should cherish the most is beyond understanding

 

[NCFisher]

What is Putin’s out when this invasion fails and his economy implodes?

And what happens to his economy if he went rogue nuclear? I'd think even worse.

Failure or success depends upon what definition of those terms he can sell the Russian people on. If by any measure he fails, he can either be pushed out of power or attempt to forcefully retain it The nuke scenario makes some assumptions; that Putin has sole discretion to launch, that the other two layers of officials necessary to launch would do so, that he would not be taken out by coup were he set on it, and that the Russian people would be supportive of going nuclear and not remove him anyway.

NATO is literally fighting an economic (which most wars are) and proxy war with Russia already. IMO the nuke scenario is quite remote in any event except direct attack by NATO.

 

[Rickyvol77]

In a World of absolute Monsters, what the Goebbels did to their OWN CHILDREN remains among the most monsterous. There is some (very twisted) logic in killing people you despise, but to calculatingly murder those you should cherish the most is beyond understanding

Those people were the definition of soulless monsters

 

[NCFisher]

The thing we don’t know exactly is how the Chain of Command works for Russian Nuclear forces. One would hope that someone in the military would have the capability to block the launch. We know that Gen Miley reassured his Chinese counterparts that Trump would not be allowed to attack China in his remaining days in office. Does the Russian Command have the ability to make the same promise?
I honestly don’t know

This author Could Putin or Biden launch nuclear missiles by themselves? claims Russia has barriers to any one man launching.
In Russia, There are three key persons as nuclear response code-holders:

President, Minister of Defence, and the Chief of the Staff, transmitting an Emergency Action Message (EAM) to the nuclear triad units to execute specific Major Attack Options or Limited Attack Options .

It is used the automated control system of nuclear forces Kazbek (автоматизированная система управления ядерными силами страны "Казбек"), which key node is in 3 nuclear briefcases, Cheget (Абонентский комплекс "Чегет" автоматизированной системы управления стратегическими ядерными силами "Казбек").

“Dead hand”, or "Perimeter", is as an alternative system for all units armed with nuclear weapons. It is a backup communication system, in case the key components of the "Kazbek" command system and the link to the Strategic Missile Forces are destroyed by a first-strike in accordance with the concept developed in the US called "Limited nuclear war".

In order to ensure its functionality the system was originally designed as fully automatic, and with the ability to decide on the adequate retaliatory strike on its own with no (or minimal) human involvement in the event of an all-out attack.

According to a developer of the system, it is a buffer against hasty decisions based on unverified information by the country's leadership.

Upon receiving warnings about a nuclear attack, the leader could activate the system, and then wait for further developments, assured by the fact that even the destruction of all key personnel with the authority to command the response to the attack could still not prevent a retaliatory strike, resulting in Mutual assured destruction or mutually assured destruction (MAD).

Thus, this eliminates the possibility of a false-alarm-triggered retaliation.

A similar system existed in the U.S. known as the AN/DRC-8 Emergency Rocket Communications System (ERCS).

 

[NCFisher]

Here's an excerpt from a Reuter's article regarding nuclear chain of command: Factbox: The chain of command for potential Russian nuclear strikes
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Here is how Russia's chain of command would work in the event of a nuclear weapon launch.

WHO DECIDES TO LAUNCH RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS?

A 2020 document called "Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence" says the Russian president takes the decision to use nuclear weapons.

A small briefcase, known as the Cheget, is kept close to the president at all times, linking him to the command and control network of Russia's strategic nuclear forces. The Cheget does not contain a nuclear launch button but rather transmits launch orders to the central military command - the General Staff.

IF PUTIN GIVES THE NUCLEAR ORDER, WHAT HAPPENS?

The Russian General Staff has access to the launch codes and has two methods of launching nuclear warheads. It can send authorisation codes to individual weapons commanders, who would then execute the launch procedures. There is also a back-up system, known as Perimetr, which allows the General Staff to directly initiate the launch of land-based missiles, bypassing all the immediate command posts.

PUTIN'S 'HIGH ALERT' ORDER MAKE A LAUNCH MORE LIKELY?

Putin said at the weekend that the nation's nuclear forces should be put on high alert. The following day, Russia's defence ministry announced that its nuclear missile forces had been placed on "enhanced" combat duty. read more

The phrase enhanced, or special, combat duty does not appear in Russia's nuclear doctrine, leaving military experts puzzled over what it might mean. read more

Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva, said on Twitter that the order might have activated Russia's nuclear command and control system, essentially opening communication channels for any eventual launch order. Alternatively, he said it might just mean the Russians added staff to their nuclear facilities.

DO THE RUSSIANS HAVE RULES ON NUCLEAR LAUNCHES?

The 2020 doctrine presents four scenarios which might justify the use of Russian nuclear weapons:

-- the use of nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction against Russia or its allies;

-- data showing the launch of ballistic missiles aimed at Russia or its allies;

-- an attack on critical government or military sites that would undermine the country's nuclear forces response actions;

-- the use of conventional weapons against Russia "when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy"

 

[Gandalf]

Respectfully disagree. If Russia could bomb Kyiv they definitely would. They can't because the AA defense there is the strongest in all of Ukraine. The S300s and other systems would take out any Ruskie bombers.

While I am sure they have some good air defense I see no reason the Russians could not take it out of that had been their plan. They have the strategic resources, they just haven’t been using them…yet.

Now why they haven’t is the question. Maybe it’s like you say and they deem it would be too costly at this stage of the war or they simply can’t for some reason. I suspect it is because it’s not part of the plan right now. They are not using bombers in areas even where they do have control. Got to be some good reason for that.

 

[evillawyer]

Ukrainians be like:

 

[evillawyer]

Looks like 75-125. If the crew was 500, that's probably at least 375 killed.

 

[Johncarter53]

 

[allvol123]

And what happens to his economy if he went rogue nuclear? I'd think even worse.

Failure or success depends upon what definition of those terms he can sell the Russian people on. If by any measure he fails, he can either be pushed out of power or attempt to forcefully retain it The nuke scenario makes some assumptions; that Putin has sole discretion to launch, that the other two layers of officials necessary to launch would do so, that he would not be taken out by coup were he set on it, and that the Russian people would be supportive of going nuclear and not remove him anyway.

NATO is literally fighting an economic (which most wars are) and proxy war with Russia already. IMO the nuke scenario is quite remote in any event except direct attack by NATO.

My comment on the economy imploding means he would be done in Russia, thus backed into a corner, hence the scenario where he goes all in.

On the assumptions related to nuke launch, we (world) are saying no one knows whether or not he has sole discretion on this?

 

[allvol123]

In a World of absolute Monsters, what the Goebbels did to their OWN CHILDREN remains among the most monsterous. There is some (very twisted) logic in killing people you despise, but to calculatingly murder those you should cherish the most is beyond understanding

It just speaks to the completeness with which mad people invest in their world view. They literally could not see a future for their children that was worth inheriting. I can see Putin holding such a mindset.

 

[Velo Vol]

That seems like a lot. Methinks UKR must be getting useful intelligence.

 

[IluvdoubleD's]

There is much that is not making sense about Russia's actions. I sometimes wonder if the rumors are true, and he is on some kind of suicide mission. Perhaps his mind has been twisted with fate already.

 

[***RoadVol***]

While I am sure they have some good air defense I see no reason the Russians could not take it out of that had been their plan. They have the strategic resources, they just haven’t been using them…yet.

Now why they haven’t is the question. Maybe it’s like you say and they deem it would be too costly at this stage of the war or they simply can’t for some reason. I suspect it is because it’s not part of the plan right now. They are not using bombers in areas even where they do have control. Got to be some good reason for that.

I think this is a big unknown bit of information at this point. It seems as if Russia's military strength has been propaganda.

 

[NCFisher]

My comment on the economy imploding means he would be done in Russia, thus backed into a corner, hence the scenario where he goes all in.

On the assumptions related to nuke launch, we (world) are saying no one knows whether or not he has sole discretion on this?

Yes, I understood that and countered that if success means using nukes, the Russian economy are headed for the toilet anyway as a pariah nation. And he'll be swirling in the bowl.

 

[IluvdoubleD's]

I think this is a big unknown bit of information at this point. It seems as if Russia's military strength has been the trumpet CULTists conspirators, and social.

fyp.

 

[IluvdoubleD's]

Russia loses eighth general and 34th colonel in Ukraine in latest blow to Putin's botched invasion | Daily Mail Online