‘23 CA QB Nicholaus Iamaleava (Tennessee)

[Joe Dirt]

Tua, Sam Howell, Matt Corral, Davis Mills, Jake Fromm, Kellen Mond, Bryce Young, CJ Stroud

That’s are some very good to elite level QBs.

Granted I did top 10 QBs and from 247. Idk if you were using a different service or maybe talking top ten players in the nation

Word. Howell, Corral, Fromm, Mond, and Stroud (depending on service) were 4 stars and the context of my comment was about the bust rate of 5 star QB's.

I think the overall point is we're now in a world where top QB's are going to make millions in NIL and it's a complete crap shoot on whether schools will see real ROI in that investment. Thankfully, we have a very QB-friendly offense that should let anyone we get shine.

 

[Vol8188]

I'd throw in guys like Hunter Johnson, Blake Barnett, Kyle Allen, JT Daniels, DTR, Rattler, and Bo Nix as examples of 5 stars who really didn't accomplish anything noteworthy in college (within the 2014 date range you gave). Including the guys from your list (and only the ones that are draft eligible) 2 have been first round picks. Another guy who was a 5 star, Davis Mills, was a 3rd round pick, which is low for a QB since teams reach so hard for anyone good.

But to your point, a 5 star QB, who is now being discussed in the 7 to 8 figure range, would be considered a "bust" by most if they came in and had the careers that the majority of these guys had.

You believe 3rd round is low ? Most years we have less than 10 QBs drafted. Any QB that’s drafted, it’s hard to call a bust given how rare that is.

 

[Vol8188]

Word. Howell, Corral, Fromm, Mond, and Stroud (depending on service) were 4 stars and the context of my comment was about the bust rate of 5 star QB's.

I think the overall point is we're now in a world where top QB's are going to make millions in NIL and it's a complete crap shoot on whether schools will see real ROI in that investment. Thankfully, we have a very QB-friendly offense that should let anyone we get shine.

Crap shoot is probably a bit strong, but I agree it’s not perfect. Hit rate is probably higher than NFL QBs and they still continue to invest. As long as QBs continue to be the most important position on the field, the money will keep flowing

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I'd throw in guys like Hunter Johnson, Blake Barnett, Kyle Allen, JT Daniels, DTR, Rattler, and Bo Nix as examples of 5 stars who really didn't accomplish anything noteworthy in college (within the 2014 date range you gave). Including the guys from your list (and only the ones that are draft eligible) 2 have been first round picks. Another guy who was a 5 star, Davis Mills, was a 3rd round pick, which is low for a QB since teams reach so hard for anyone good.

But to your point, a 5 star QB, who is now being discussed in the 7 to 8 figure range, would be considered a "bust" by most if they came in and had the careers that the majority of these guys had.

But my point was specifically about top 10 players. I think there's a difference between QBs that are ranked top 10 nationally overall and a guy who maybe gets bumped into 5 star at the end and is like 25-32 in the rankings or isn't a consensus 5 star, top guy.

 

[Joe Dirt]

You believe 3rd round is low ? Most years we have less than 10 QBs drafted. Any QB that’s drafted, it’s hard to call a bust given how rare that is.

Yes and no. Again, the context is ROI on a massive NIL deal, where a 5 star is "supposed" to be a first round pick. If you pay out enormous money for a 5 star QB who ultimately ends up as a day 2 pick, his career is so-so relative to his projection out of high school. Conversely, Hooker wasn't a top 300 recruit and could be a day 2 pick, in which case he would be a major win in that scenario. That's all I'm saying.

 

[Vol8188]

But my point was specifically about top 10 players. I think there's a difference between QBs that are ranked top 10 nationally overall and a guy who maybe gets bumped into 5 star at the end and is like 25-32 in the rankings or isn't a consensus 5 star, top guy.

I know I’m late to the game and sorry if you’ve already addressed this, but why’s that a problem?

It seems 5 star QBs have an insanely high ceiling (Young, Lawerence, etc) and a high floor (Patterson, Eason, etc). To me that sounds like a positive. What’s the downside I’m missing?

 

[Joe Dirt]

But my point was specifically about top 10 players. I think there's a difference between QBs that are ranked top 10 nationally overall and a guy who maybe gets bumped into 5 star at the end and is like 25-32 in the rankings or isn't a consensus 5 star, top guy.

Yeah, I'm probably looking at it more in terms of 247's "5 stars should be first rounders" than you are, but either way, hitting on a top QB prospect is a gamble no matter what, and that's only being magnified with the massive deals that are coming up in this cycle.

 

[miket4god]

I'm failing to see the problem. When you say they won't continue to spend 8 figures if expectations aren't meet, why is that bad? If a Dillion Brooks gets paid to come here and then doesn't perform, should they not receive less money?

What am I missing?

I think what he is saying is that if they spend $10M on Nico and Nico is a bust, then they may not be as inclined to spend big bucks on the next "Nico".

 

[Vol8188]

Yes and no. Again, the context is ROI on a massive NIL deal, where a 5 star is "supposed" to be a first round pick. If you pay out enormous money for a 5 star QB who ultimately ends up as a day 2 pick, his career is so-so relative to his projection out of high school. Conversely, Hooker wasn't a top 300 recruit and could be a day 2 pick, in which case he would be a major win in that scenario. That's all I'm saying.

Sure but the great thing with NIL is you’re not stuck. If the player doesn’t workout, o well. It’s not like you’re stuck paying them for years. I’m just not seeing much of a down side.

Swing for the fences. Maybe we land a Bryce Young. If we miss and get a Jake Fromm, you can still win at an elite level with that and his NIL money will adjust with his pay as Hookers has.

I don’t really see any negative in swinging for the fences. Is there something I’m missing? Like a rule that requires us to pay them for four years?

 

[Vol8188]

I think what he is saying is that if they spend $10M on Nico and Nico is a bust, then they may not be as inclined to spend big bucks on the next "Nico".

I’d argue the history of coaching searches tells us the opposite. Years ago we thought Kiffin’s buyout of less than a million was a lot. Now schools will openly pay 10-20m for buyouts.

I don’t think “we swung and missed once” will deter anyone who’s serious about winning

 

[Vol8188]

Yeah, I'm probably looking at it more in terms of 247's "5 stars should be first rounders" than you are, but either way, hitting on a top QB prospect is a gamble no matter what, and that's only being magnified with the massive deals that are coming up in this cycle.

Can we all agree it’s a gamble that’s more likely to hit big than any other QB gamble?

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I think what he is saying is that if they spend $10M on Nico and Nico is a bust, then they may not be as inclined to spend big bucks on the next "Nico".

I think this is what will actually happen across the board. NIL is just so new it hasn't had time for the market to correct itself yet. I just think this year the market is 8-12 (also because this is a loaded QB class), but I can absolutely see a scenario where it's much lower in the future as the market levels out and people get into a rhythm of what is expected and what people are willing to pay.

It may never come down, and may only go up, but I could also see a scenrio where in the future QBs are getting 4-5 million over 3-4 years vs 8-12 over 3-4. Sort of like when the NFL introduced the new rookie scale to stop giving 1st overall picks those crazy guaranteed contracts. We're just really early in NIL so it's wild right now.

 

[Joe Dirt]

Sure but the great thing with NIL is you’re not stuck. If the player doesn’t workout, o well. It’s not like you’re stuck paying them for years. I’m just not seeing much of a down side.

Swing for the fences. Maybe we land a Bryce Young. If we miss and get a Jake Fromm, you can still win at an elite level with that and his NIL money will adjust with his pay as Hookers has.

I don’t really see any negative in swinging for the fences. Is there something I’m missing? Like a rule that requires us to pay them for four years?

Do we know businesses aren't stuck paying? I don't think we know enough about the deal structures to say there's no risk involved. Someone desperate (like a USCJr) will absolutely try and one-up a bigger school by adding guarantees to deals which will cause everyone to start doing the same. Slippery slope.

 

[Vol8188]

I think this is what will actually happen across the board. NIL is just so new it hasn't had time for the market to correct itself yet. I just think this year the market is 8-12 (also because this is a loaded QB class), but I can absolutely see a scenario where it's much lower in the future as the market levels out and people get into a rhythm of what is expected and what people are willing to pay.

It may never come down, and may only go up, but I could also see a scenrio where in the future QBs are getting 4-5 million over 3-4 years vs 8-12 over 3-4. Sort of like when the NFL introduced the new rookie scale to stop giving 1st overall picks those crazy guaranteed contracts. We're just really early in NIL so it's wild right now.

I think anyone at the NCAA or SEC offices who support capping player money, should also have their salaries capped

 

[Vol8188]

Do we know businesses aren't stuck paying? I don't think we know enough about the deal structures to say there's no risk involved. Someone desperate (like a USCJr) will absolutely try and one-up a bigger school by adding guarantees to deals which will cause everyone to start doing the same. Slippery slope.

That’s fair. We don’t know that. But we do know these businesses have teams of lawyers to protect them. No one is drawing up a million dollar deal without it being well reviewed.

I highly doubt any business is stuck with a 4-5 year deal.

 

[overseasorange2]

Probably heard he is not going to be a vol, so his stock is rising


Cracking the top tier in the Top247 rankings, Nicholaus Iamaleava has offically arrived

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I think anyone at the NCAA or SEC offices who support capping player money, should also have their salaries capped

I don't think that would be a result of an official cap, more like an unspoken gentleman's agreement between schools collectives or donors.

 

[Vol8188]

I don't think that would be a result of an official cap, more like an unspoken gentleman's agreement between schools collectives or donors.

I just can’t imagine such a thing ever occurring. Especially not in such a competitive league. I can see arguments for attempting to invest elsewhere other than Qb (like our last staff) because you feel you can land multiple elite guys for the price of 1 QB.

But I can’t imagine drive people who want to win just agreeing like that. If team A thinks the player is a heisman, 1st round kinda guy, they’ll pay up. They won’t always be right, but not investment hits 100% of the time.

 

[SSVol]

I'm failing to see the problem. When you say they won't continue to spend 8 figures if expectations aren't meet, why is that bad? If a Dillion Brooks gets paid to come here and then doesn't perform, should they not receive less money?

What am I missing?

I'm not talking about a single player. I'm saying that when a business or donor fails to see any meaningful return on a significant investment, they may choose to no longer invest in the future. The perception that there are endless wealthy people willing to throw money into a fire pit is false. If the money to throw 8 figures at a high school player is so readily available, then why do schools evaluate the potential to fire an unwanted coach for cause, but then keep him because they don't want to (or can't) spend 8 figures? If it was as simple as asking a big shot booster to write a check, then why do programs end up broke?

Yes, the money is there as long as people are willing. How long will they stay willing if there isn't a commensurate return?

 

[SSVol]

I’d argue the history of coaching searches tells us the opposite. Years ago we thought Kiffin’s buyout of less than a million was a lot. Now schools will openly pay 10-20m for buyouts.

I don’t think “we swung and missed once” will deter anyone who’s serious about winning

You take QBs every year. You don't buyout coaches every year. I also assume you might want other players on the team, and the good one's aren't coming for free.

 

[Vol8188]

I'm not talking about a single player. I'm saying that when a business or donor fails to see any meaningful return on a significant investment, they may choose to no longer invest in the future. The perception that there are endless wealthy people willing to throw money into a fire pit is false. If the money to throw 8 figures at a high school player is so readily available, then why do schools evaluate the potential to fire an unwanted coach for cause, but then keep him because they don't want to (or can't) spend 8 figures? If it was as simple as asking a big shot booster to write a check, then why do programs end up broke?

Yes, the money is there as long as people are willing. How long will they stay willing if there isn't a commensurate return?

"If the money to throw 8 figures at a high school player is so readily available, then why do schools evaluate the potential to fire an unwanted coach for cause, but then keep him because they don't want to (or can't) spend 8 figures?"

You're confusing exceptions and rules here. There's countless examples of schools paying 8 figure buyouts. The fact that a school wants to save millions when they can does not mean there's not enough money to pay 8 figures to QBs. We raised over 340K for a players family this week. The first 100k was raised within an hour.

As far as profit, that's on the fanbase. It's up to the fans to decide to do business with the companies that are sponsoring your players. Obviously there's profit to be had otherwise sports endorsements would've died out years ago. Between the ability to sell jerseys, autographs, sponsor products, etc there's plenty of options out there to bring in the money.

 

[Vol8188]

You take QBs every year. You don't buyout coaches every year. I also assume you might want other players on the team, and the good one's aren't coming for free.

Sure you want other players. No one is arguing all 85 players will make 8 figures. What's your point here?

 

[SSVol]

Sure you want other players. No one is arguing all 85 players will make 8 figures. What's your point here?

Of course not, but the total amount of money to field a championship team may well approach 9 figures. The well isn't bottomless.

The entire point of the discussion was just wondering how high it gets before returning to more rational numbers, but I guess my perception as a 30 year business owner (you know, the people who are expected to invest) is far off from the reality. Apparently we have many Elon Musks in our midst who are willing to throw money at this with no expectation of return.

 

[VolInDayton]

Hair looks stupid we will need to pass. Won’t have a helmet that fits

This was Butch Jones evaluating Trevor Lawrence.

 

[Vol8188]

Of course not, but the total amount of money to field a championship team may well approach 9 figures. The well isn't bottomless.

The entire point of the discussion was just wondering how high it gets before returning to more rational numbers, but I guess my perception as a 30 year business owner (you know, the people who are expected to invest) is far off from the reality. Apparently we have many Elon Musks in our midst who are willing to throw money at this with no expectation of return.

Every business that buys season tickets or donates to a school loses money, correct?