Can we realistically expect improvement next year?

[SmileyVol_c/o_10]

If we can sign a full class of 32 players, then yes there's improvement in depth alone.

 

[VFLCodyGBO]

This…..Right……Here….. Dude, turn off the worry meter and enjoy today. GBO

Ah my mistake, I thought this was a message board meant for discussing things. Sorry, I’ll make sure my future posts align to your expectations.

 

[RhodesVol]

I don’t think we can realistically start talking about next year until we know who’s leaving. Let’s be honest, Hooker isn’t on anyones list of QBs who will be a day 1 or 2 draft pick, so his chances of coming back are pretty good if he can. I’m still not certain who’s able to get another year of eligibility.

My real worry with respect to Hooker leaving is that he's no spring chicken. He's 23 already, I believe, and he is only climbing draft boards (Kiper had him 8th before the UK game). They take 4-5 QB's in the first round. I don't know, I have worries.

That said, he could go the Kenny Pickett route and come back to try to be the No. 1 QB, but I could see it swing either way.

 

[beamerman]

Literally depends on if Hooker returns.

This and when we finally get the penalty phase resolved so other teams can quit using it against us in recruiting.

 

[SN-A-C Orange]

Next year starts the whole "CJH needs 3-5 years to get HIS recruits in..." talk.
Then in 4-5 years...at 7-5...we get Gruden Rumors...
Rinse & Repeat...
WELCOME to Tennessee Football in the New Millennium!

And I've been operating under the assumption that the reason TAF devotes so much time and energy to demoralized complaining was .... that he simply didn't get it. Now, I'm thinking we need to check what medications his on to see if their is another source of his despair. :^)))))

 

[sjt18]

With our expected departures (don’t have a list, but it includes several starters) can we expect this team to take a step forward? Our recruiting hasn’t been great the past 2 cycles (counting the current) and that may change between now and signing day, but I just don’t see anything saying we should expect a large uptick in capability.

Don't know about next year. Some guys have the option of returning or retiring. Heupel has to play the portal well... and we have to hope he's better at finding players than 247 and Rivals. It would be comforting to have some higher rated players but in reality it matters more what they're able to do on the field with a couple of years of development.

Most of the guys they're recruiting right now aren't going to be year one help.

So what does that leave?

One, it matters how many of the guys with an extra Covid year take it. That includes guys who aren't playing a lot. Guys who are on the scout team. Guys who are 3, 4, or 5 down the depth chart. Those guys are important too.

Two, and probably most important, Heupel has to get some great players who fit out of the portal. Some guys in the portal aren't any good... that's a fact. You have to avoid them. But some guys in the portal for various reasons just need a new start. Turnage wasn't getting a ton of time at Bama but looks like he's becoming a good player for UT... maybe even a draft worthy player in a couple of years. Hooker is the most obvious example. There were people here early on openly saying he couldn't be any good since he'd lost his job at Va Tech.

UT needs to lose the right guys to the portal then bring in 10 or so guys who contribute in '22.

Three, development. Some of the guys with physical talent who aren't ready to play now MUST be ready by next fall. Specifically along the OL... a guy like Beckworth... Willis... You can't just throw them onto the field if they aren't ready. But their development is critical to next year and beyond.

Four, he needs some JUCO homeruns.

Five, he has to be a recruiter who can find underrated 3* players. This isn't unique to Heupel. Several of us have been saying it since Fulmer was fired. Every year the recruiting services miss as many guys worthy of 4/5* as they find. Maybe a lot more. Finding the guys who have talent that can be developed and who fit the culture and system needs... is more important than recruiting rankings. It is fine if the rankings affirm what you are doing... but it isn't as important as finding and developing good players.

Dabo did this well as Clemson rose. Now they have a whole team of guys that the recruiting sites loved... and are struggling.

I think holding our ground should be the expectation, recruit better, and start improving year 3 or 4 at the latest.

Sounds nice. Sounds kind. Almost sounds reasonable. However it isn't realistic. There is no "holding ground". You are either climbing or sinking. No one else is sitting still and you can't either.

But the most important thing that sentiments like this fail to account for is that recruiting won't get better unless you prove yourself on the field. If recruits see you as a mediocre program then they'll go to the successful programs OR programs with "shiny new coaches" who can use a "vision" to attract them. Guys who win 6-8 games per year and especially in the SEC... aren't going to get the elite players needed to "start improving".

We haven't seen the end result this year yet. What they've done on the field should help. But whatever momentum they have has to be continued next year AND has to be converted into buzz with recruits and the portal.

 

[Nocleats]

I’ve maintained since last Jan that 2022 will be much tougher than this year, the graduation + transferred player out + last year’s recruiting class being allowed out of their commitment and there is a potential perfect storm scenario

 

[beamerman]

My real worry with respect to Hooker leaving is that he's no spring chicken. He's 23 already, I believe, and he is only climbing draft boards (Kiper had him 8th before the UK game). They take 4-5 QB's in the first round. I don't know, I have worries.

That said, he could go the Kenny Pickett route and come back to try to be the No. 1 QB, but I could see it swing either way.

If Hooker is smart he returns to improve his draft stock. Every round improvement translates into more dollars whether he makes it or not as a player. Didn’t Staubach finish his naval service and start at 24 or 25? He did alright.

 

[TennesseeTarheel]

I didn't just read that, did I? What's next? 4 dollar gas?

 

[beamerman]

Don't know about next year. Some guys have the option of returning or retiring. Heupel has to play the portal well... and we have to hope he's better at finding players than 247 and Rivals. It would be comforting to have some higher rated players but in reality it matters more what they're able to do on the field with a couple of years of development.

Most of the guys they're recruiting right now aren't going to be year one help.

So what does that leave?

One, it matters how many of the guys with an extra Covid year take it. That includes guys who aren't playing a lot. Guys who are on the scout team. Guys who are 3, 4, or 5 down the depth chart. Those guys are important too.

Two, and probably most important, Heupel has to get some great players who fit out of the portal. Some guys in the portal aren't any good... that's a fact. You have to avoid them. But some guys in the portal for various reasons just need a new start. Turnage wasn't getting a ton of time at Bama but looks like he's becoming a good player for UT... maybe even a draft worthy player in a couple of years. Hooker is the most obvious example. There were people here early on openly saying he couldn't be any good since he'd lost his job at Va Tech.

UT needs to lose the right guys to the portal then bring in 10 or so guys who contribute in '22.

Three, development. Some of the guys with physical talent who aren't ready to play now MUST be ready by next fall. Specifically along the OL... a guy like Beckworth... Willis... You can't just throw them onto the field if they aren't ready. But their development is critical to next year and beyond.

Four, he needs some JUCO homeruns.

Five, he has to be a recruiter who can find underrated 3* players. This isn't unique to Heupel. Several of us have been saying it since Fulmer was fired. Every year the recruiting services miss as many guys worthy of 4/5* as they find. Maybe a lot more. Finding the guys who have talent that can be developed and who fit the culture and system needs... is more important than recruiting rankings. It is fine if the rankings affirm what you are doing... but it isn't as important as finding and developing good players.

Dabo did this well as Clemson rose. Now they have a whole team of guys that the recruiting sites loved... and are struggling.

Sounds nice. Sounds kind. Almost sounds reasonable. However it isn't realistic. There is no "holding ground". You are either climbing or sinking. No one else is sitting still and you can't either.

But the most important thing that sentiments like this fail to account for is that recruiting won't get better unless you prove yourself on the field. If recruits see you as a mediocre program then they'll go to the successful programs OR programs with "shiny new coaches" who can use a "vision" to attract them. Guys who win 6-8 games per year and especially in the SEC... aren't going to get the elite players needed to "start improving".

We haven't seen the end result this year yet. What they've done on the field should help. But whatever momentum they have has to be continued next year AND has to be converted into buzz with recruits and the portal.

So true. Watching this offense getting wide receiver numbers should make us attractive to wide receivers. And running backs.

 

[sjt18]

Next year starts the whole "CJH needs 3-5 years to get HIS recruits in..." talk.

Then in 4-5 years...at 7-5

Really? Kind of a broad brush there. Only a few have tried the 5 years to succeed talk. I think most are beyond that poor logic by now. He has to find ways to build a competitive roster... not unlike what he did this year. As several writers have now noticed, this team could have easily been a 9 win team with just a few minor decisions/occurrences.

I'm not predicting success but Heupel is different. He is a break from the "rinse & repeat" pattern you mention. He's simply a better developer of teams/players and gameday coach. He'll still fail if he doesn't find players... but let's let that play out before drawing conclustions, OK?

...we get Gruden Rumors...

Rinse & Repeat...

WELCOME to Tennessee Football in the New Millennium!

Eeyore is an appropriate image for you. You should change your avatar.

BTW... the Gruden stuff was always pretty dumb... and there will always be a "latest, hottest" name in coaching. Probably someone we wouldn't currently guess if things don't go well for Heupel.

 

[peaygolf]

Literally depends on if Hooker returns.

He surprised everyone. Someone else can surprise too.
It’s not 100% on his return. But......it wouldn’t hurt

 

[sjt18]

He surprised everyone. Someone else can surprise too.
It’s not 100% on his return. But......it wouldn’t hurt

Absolutely. Hooker has tools but in reality Heupel's system makes him a better QB than he was at VT.

 

[Nocleats]

NCAA Cloud makes the job take much longer

 

[sjt18]

If we can sign a full class of 32 players, then yes there's improvement in depth alone.

Probably need to check your math.

UT can only use the extra 7 in the portal and then only to replace someone who enters the portal after the end of the term. Bailey and now Joseph both screwed (intentional or not) UT out of being able to use one of those 7 make up spots.

There are some guys here who keep up with the "counting" rules. I'll admit that they're kind of confusing and seem to change often enough... to let someone else be the expert. UT currently has 14 commits with 10 on O. Defense will be a big push for the rest of the cycle.

 

[scottchatt]

Improvement, yes.

Better record….hopefully, but I think improvement could happen and not show in the record, but it’d be really nice if it showed in the record.

 

[sjt18]

NCAA Cloud makes the job take much longer

UT should count its missing scholarships from this season as part of the penalty. UT proactively purged the program of players, coaches, and staffers involved in the cheating.

It would be foolish to accept anything significant from the NCAA. I'd say 6 more scholarships over 2 or 3 years and maybe some other restrictions/probation then sell UT's response as the model for what should happen when a school discovers and handles its own problems.

 

[peaygolf]

Absolutely. Hooker has tools but in reality Heupel's system makes him a better QB than he was at VT.

That’s why I replied the way I did. Hookers return isn’t necessarily the most important factor in continuous improvement next year.

 

[sjt18]

Improvement, yes.

Better record….hopefully, but I think improvement could happen and not show in the record, but it’d be really nice if it showed in the record.

IMHO, the team playing right now even a little beat up would have beaten Pitt. They probably would have beaten UF. OM was a win minus a handful of breaks that all went against UT

If they improve then they're going to beat Pitt minus Pickett. The Vols have an open date after UF before playing @ LSU. That game could be very winnable with O or in the wake of him being fired. As we saw, UK doesn't "reload". They always get thin in the depth chart by the time UT plays them. That's the trap of only signing guys that need 2-4 years to develop. You may have a solid 2 deep but after that you have guys who aren't ready to play. Same deal for UT this year... but for UT it is more of an anomaly than the rule.



Long story short. If Heupel finds players through the portal and recruiting to fill whatever gaps develop and builds some depth through current players and additions... then UT could be an 8-10 win team next fall.

 

[AdoptedVOL]

I’ll start worrying when Huepel hits the portal. Until then great staff and next man up. Looking forward to strong finish, bowling, then waiting in anticipation for Team 2022.

 

[peaygolf]

IMHO, the team playing right now even a little beat up would have beaten Pitt. They probably would have beaten UF. OM was a win minus a handful of breaks that all went against UT

If they improve then they're going to beat Pitt minus Pickett. The Vols have an open date after UF before playing @ LSU. That game could be very winnable with O or in the wake of him being fired. As we saw, UK doesn't "reload". They always get thin in the depth chart by the time UT plays them. That's the trap of only signing guys that need 2-4 years to develop. You may have a solid 2 deep but after that you have guys who aren't ready to play. Same deal for UT this year... but for UT it is more of an anomaly than the rule.



Long story short. If Heupel finds players through the portal and recruiting to fill whatever gaps develop and builds some depth through current players and additions... then UT could be an 8-10 win team next fall.

2022s schedule sets up nicely for 8/9 wins.....with quality QB play. The defense can’t get any worse

 

[FlyFishnVol]

With our expected departures (don’t have a list, but it includes several starters) can we expect this team to take a step forward? Our recruiting hasn’t been great the past 2 cycles (counting the current) and that may change between now and signing day, but I just don’t see anything saying we should expect a large uptick in capability. I think holding our ground should be the expectation, recruit better, and start improving year 3 or 4 at the latest.

I believe the most improvement will be in numbers, losing 27 players to the portal + maximum 25 to recruit....that is a lot of bodies missing on the sideline.

 

[sjt18]

2022s schedule sets up nicely for 8/9 wins.....with quality QB play. The defense can’t get any worse

Please don't say that.... maybe it can.

Seriously though, UT has to develop players on D and get some help from the portal or JUCO. As tough as it has been, there are some losses coming to that unit.

 

[GAVol]

Please don't say that.... maybe it can.

Seriously though, UT has to develop players on D and get some help from the portal or JUCO. As tough as it has been, there are some losses coming to that unit.

It's easily the most glaring problem on the team. They have to find some competent bodies to use as depth in the front 7. Our LB play has been flat out ugly at times and some of that is the D-line not being able to keep them from having to take on blocks all the time..

 

[VolArmy74]

Somehow posted this in the wrong thread earlier. I think we can improve next year but may not have a better record.

Right now we're probably the second best team in the East. I'm not sure if we can be the best team in the East next year but we should beat Pittsburgh without Pickett. We replace a home game with Ole Miss with a game at LSU, and we know they will be stacked with talent for whomever the coach is there. I'd love to say we should beat Florida at home next year but who can ever say that about Florida with a straight face?

So I would say 8-4 would be an improvement and a successful season next year, assuming Hooker is back. We don't have as much room to improve in year two because year one went better than everyone thought and it's going to take a bit to rebuild the roster to a decent level.