Phil Steele's Projected SEC Order of Finish

[VolunteerHillbilly]

so based on the last 15 years of mediocre performance and roster attrition and toss in NCAA ongoing investigation blah blah blah. Phil Steele may know his business but I'll tell you that I saw Ole Miss give Alabama a fit on into the fourth quarter last year. Lane Kiffin did it with a roster which probably was less that ours will be this year. If coaching did not matter, they would not be getting as much money as is thrown at them. I think we've got a good coach and the past means nothing. We're dealing with NOW!

Lane has the best QB in the SEC.

 

[sjt18]

We will not have the depth on defense to shut teams down. It’s just what it is.

Without respect to anything except supposed raw talent according to the recruiting sites... UT will be about 3 deep at every position on the DL. They are 2 deep with talent plus some potential at MLB. Judging by 247 and athleticism, UT has real potential at OLB. Using the talent of the last say 6 years, the secondary is now at least two and possibly 3 deep in the secondary.

I am pretty committed to the claim that if they utterly fail it will be because of coaching. Even with the losses, this is a better situation than the one inherited by Kiffin, Dooley, Jones, or Pruitt.

This does not mean that I expect them to stop the better teams UT plays- Bama, UGA, UF (maybe), and probably Ole Miss. I do expect them to perform reasonably well against the likes of USCe, Pitt, Mizzou, UK, et al.

Again a strongly held opinion... but I think this is fairly easily an 8 win team if the D can average less than 28 ppg.

HOWEVER….we have a HC that is arguably the most innovative offensive mind in the SEC East…including Mullen. We have plenty of weapons on this side of the ball. We finally have an O-line Coach that turns chicken $#!T into chicken salad everywhere he’s been. Hell probably the most solid O-line coach here since Pittman. This offensive staff has been a unit for 3 years so they are all on the same page. Not like the previous train wreck.

Some are pessimistic and claim they're "just being realistic". Some are optimistic and claim they're "being realistic". I am hopeful.... and doing my best to be realistic. I HOPE you are right about this and wrong about the other.

We would’ve beat Kentucky last season until JG decided to score points for them instead of us…pretty much getting our team to give up completely. Sadly JG was pretty much a cancer for the whole offense killing their will to even try with his poor play. He’s gone now. We have skilled position players on the offensive side of the ball that would start over most of Kentucky’s, South Carolina’s, Mizzu’s, and all of Vandy’s players.

Everyone knows I was critical of JG. But is was never personal. I really wanted him to be something he never became. He is one of the most tragic, pity worthy players I've ever seen. He had some of the qualities that make a great QB. He tried. He endured more emotionally than most of us ever will. But the lights just never came on when it was "go time".

Given that and finally having an exciting style of football CJH runs…scoring points changes the mentality of kids. These players haven’t experienced what this staff brings. They’re used to being blown out. Outside of Florida and Georgia…on paper we have the pieces to have the best offensive unit in the rest of the East. For this reason I will not count us out. It feels to me we will be like Kiffin/Ole Miss last year…and we have better players on this roster than he had.

Agree. Unless there's been a big shift at UGA, I would not be surprised if UT is statistically "better" than them.

Rather than Jimmys and Joes or X's and O's... the thing I am most anxious to see is how the cultural changes will reveal themselves in performance. My most "optimistic" moments since he took over have been when recruits have parroted player comments about a new, better positive culture.

 

[GoodmanVol]

Mullen will make Jones a very effective QB. Mullen actually has one of the longest track records of doing just that with every QB he has ever coached, going all the way back to even before his SEC days. I doubt there is anyone coaching today who has a better track record with QB’s if you factor in the talent he has had to work with.

He hasn’t had as highly ranked QB’s his entire career like Dabo has for instance. Never Bet on a Mullen QB being less than very effective, it’s a losing bet. With Jones, he will pull out his playbook of duel threat QB strategy he has used so often in the past.

Jones will likely be the top rushing QB in the conference and that will open things up enough for him and Mullen to be very effective on play action strikes. We have all seen this movie before.

Dan Mullen's last dual threat QB was Nick Fitzgerald. Georgia beat Mullen with (RS Junior) Fitzgerald 31-3 and he was last seen in the XFL before it got cancelled last year. Mullen also started Franks until he was injured in the KY game where Trask had to come in and save them. What if he hadn't gotten injured? Would Trask have ever seen the field. Many would say Franks took a step forward last year with Arkansas. Trask did perform well but also had generational weapons (Pitts) at his disposal. All that's to say I'm in wait and see mode with Jones. I think Richardson will actually be the starter mid-way through the year if Mullen isn't too stubborn to make the change.

 

[sjt18]

Lane has the best QB in the SEC.

No one would have said that entering last season. Kiffin put him in situations where he could be successful. I think most of us are hoping that Heupel will be good at that too.

If the recruiting rankings mean anything at all then UT now has one of the most talented and deepest QB rooms in the SEC. That's a really, really good starting point when trying to build.

 

[sjt18]

The SEC East is very bad, probably not much separation between 3-7.

That's a true statement.

IMHO, that's why where UT finishes comes down to coaching rather than any huge difference in the rosters of 3-6. Vandy is clearly in bad shape.

 

[VolDaddy61]

I'm still picking UT to finish 3rd.

 

[SayNoToJorts]

So our 50 players can see it?

Only allowed to play 11 at a time last time I checked

 

[BigOrangeFanatic]

That's a true statement.

IMHO, that's why where UT finishes comes down to coaching rather than any huge difference in the rosters of 3-6. Vandy is clearly in bad shape.

If Heupel is just slightly above average we finish 3rd. Obviously we want him to be more than that, but I generally agree with your point.

I'm just more in the middle on everything. We've been burned so much on the last 3 coaches before Heupel I can't begin to even think he's gonna do any better than those 3. We get to a position where the "new guy" can't possibly be worse than the ones before him but nothing ever changes, just stuck with a cluster of bad coaches.

On the other hand, I am very hopeful he breaks the trend and we can finally get over the hump. "Hope" is all we have at this point. I think he has to do something really good early on to try and get recruiting going. That's gonna end up being the key factor in how long he stays. Recruiting will have to improve for the long term.

 

[sjt18]

If Heupel is just slightly above average we finish 3rd. Obviously we want him to be more than that, but I generally agree with your point.

I'm just more in the middle on everything. We've been burned so much on the last 3 coaches before Heupel I can't begin to even think he's gonna do any better than those 3. We get to a position where the "new guy" can't possibly be worse than the ones before him but nothing ever changes, just stuck with a cluster of bad coaches.

Way back when Fulmer was in trouble I made a habit of warning people that you never know when you'll get off the coaching carousel once you get on. Fulmer was rightly fired. He may have been fired two years too late. But that doesn't change the reality of what happened since.

At some point either by "luck" or skill... the UT leadership will have the right situation and hire the right coach. They had the perfect situation when they hired Jones. His first two years may have been the most favorable recruiting opportunities since 1980.

I hope Heupel is our guy. Realistically... he has a tough fight ahead of him.

On the other hand, I am very hopeful he breaks the trend and we can finally get over the hump. "Hope" is all we have at this point. I think he has to do something really good early on to try and get recruiting going. That's gonna end up being the key factor in how long he stays. Recruiting will have to improve for the long term.

Right now I'm hanging hope on two things above all others. One is the talk of extreme culture change that keeps coming out through recruits. They're quoting coaches but more importantly players. When a culture gets as toxic as UT's has been for the most part over the last 15 years... that change has to happen first. Two is the hope that Heupel's O will create excitement and that can be converted into recruiting momentum going forward.

 

[miket4god]

So in the East last year he overrated us by 2 spots and underrated Missouri by 3. The rest of the teams were on point or within 1 spot of where he predicted.

In the West he overrated LSU by 4 but everyone else was on point or within 1 spot of where he predicted.

So applying those odds from last year, there is a 78% chance (11/14) we will end up within 1 spot of where he has us ranked. Probably pretty close to that.

The thing I am really interested in is the 247 team talent composite rankings for 2021 when they come out. We were No. 15 last year. I think it's a given we go down, it's just a question of how far. If we've gotten more out of the Portal than we've lost as some contend we should rise though.

We didn't get any where close to what we lost in the portal.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

We didn't get any where close to what we lost in the portal.

That's why I said I think it's a "given" we go down in the talent composite rankings, but some strenuously object.

 

[sjt18]

We didn't get any where close to what we lost in the portal.

Two things. One, part of that is covered by the Covid extra year.

Two, can you flesh that out position group by position group as was done by the writer cited in another thread? Henry T is seen as the biggest loss. UT DID get something "close" to what was lost to replace him. Texas' best LB for UT's best LB... isn't a terrible trade.


I don't get too jacked up over this stuff for those two reasons... and the likelihood that a lot of those guys are gone because they were directly involved in the violations. Why spend too much time worrying about things that were unavoidable once Pruitt did what he did?

 

[miket4god]

Two things. One, part of that is covered by the Covid extra year.

Two, can you flesh that out position group by position group as was done by the writer cited in another thread? Henry T is seen as the biggest loss. UT DID get something "close" to what was lost to replace him. Texas' best LB for UT's best LB... isn't a terrible trade.


I don't get too jacked up over this stuff for those two reasons... and the likelihood that a lot of those guys are gone because they were directly involved in the violations. Why spend too much time worrying about things that were unavoidable once Pruitt did what he did?

I agree with that. But I've seen some that think we added better than we lost, and that is just ridiculous to me.
We added more than we lost at QB. Milton and Hooker are probably better than JG and Shrout (although shrout would have been interesting in this offense).
RB is a huge loss with Chandler and Gray and signee Cody Brown and adding nobody through the portal (though we do have some talented but unproven players).
OL is a huge loss with Wanya, Jahmir and Gooch and adding nobody through the portal. (Hopefully scheme and coaching will help soften this blow).
WR may be an upgrade losing Johnson ana adding Payton.
TE lost several depth pieces, but nobody that is irreplaceable.
DL lost some depth with Mincey, Williams, Evans and Washington but might have upgraded the talent with Tremblay and Terry.
OLB probably lost more losing Bennett, Dylan Brooks and Deandre Johnson and adding Byron Young and Willie Mohan. So wish we could have held onto Dylan Brooks.
ILB is scary loosing Too'Too, French, Crouch and JJ Peterson and only adding Juwan Mitchell.
DB lost Baylen Buchanan and Key Lawrence and added Hadden and Turnage. Maybe a slight gain, though I love Lawrence's potential.

 

[sjt18]

I agree with that. But I've seen some that think we added better than we lost, and that is just ridiculous to me.

I don' think that conclusion can be made either way at this point. I would say the most certain guy UT lost who won't be replaced by either scheme or personnel is Gray. He does things in space that you don't teach.

I would almost say there was a downgrade with the two OL losses... except neither was truly dominant or consistent while playing for UT. Morris had talent but continued to miss assignments and get beaten in pass pro.

We added more than we lost at QB. Milton and Hooker are probably better than JG and Shrout (although shrout would have been interesting in this offense).

Agree. I hadn't thought that much about Shrout but you are right considering his arm and reasonably good athleticism.

RB is a huge loss with Chandler and Gray and signee Cody Brown and adding nobody through the portal (though we do have some talented but unproven players).

Chandler regressed. IMO, Evans and Small are both at least as physically talented as he was.

Gray has elite potential. I didn't feel good about Brown even when he committed and signed. I don't think what made him a very good HS RB would have translated very well. We've seen guys like him before.

OL is a huge loss with Wanya, Jahmir and Gooch and adding nobody through the portal. (Hopefully scheme and coaching will help soften this blow).

Like I mentioned above, Morris had yet to play like a 5*. I think Johnson may have been the bigger loss.
Gooch? Seriously? He was not going to contribute this year under either staff. He was a project that is far from irreplaceable.

WR may be an upgrade losing Johnson ana adding Payton.

I think they're a huge unknown. Lots of raw talent but no performance to judge or experience. I think the focus will be on Jones to start then shift to more gifted players as they get comfortable.

TE lost several depth pieces, but nobody that is irreplaceable.
DL lost some depth with Mincey, Williams, Evans and Washington but might have upgraded the talent with Tremblay and Terry.
OLB probably lost more losing Bennett, Dylan Brooks and Deandre Johnson and adding Byron Young and Willie Mohan. So wish we could have held onto Dylan Brooks.

Agree. No crisis in any of this.

ILB is scary loosing Too'Too, French, Crouch and JJ Peterson and only adding Juwan Mitchell.

Henry T for Mitchell is probably pretty close. Peterson was widely considered a bust who was unlikely to get on the field. Crouch wasn't a very good LB... or else was poorly coached. We do not know where French was going to play if at all.

It is a position of concern but most of that comes down to how much flexibility the other guys have. How interchangeable can the Will and Mike LB's become? OurLads lists Banks, Mitchell, Page, Garland, Willis, Beasley, Harrison, and Joseph in a 4 deep at those two positions. If 4 of those guys are interchangeable and can play 90% of the minutes between them then it may not be bad at all. I know Monte is Monte... but I remember the no names UT plugged in at LB in 2009 while having a pretty good D overall.

DB lost Baylen Buchanan and Key Lawrence and added Hadden and Turnage. Maybe a slight gain, though I love Lawrence's potential.

Lawrence is in his 4th year out of HS and has never actually played, right? He may have all the physical talent in the world but I don't have much confidence in a guy who leaves his original choice, sits out, declines to play for his new team,.... and then is so unstable that he transfers again.

I like Buchanan and want to see something before believing in the other two. Right now, I'd call this a push at a position that was in reasonably good shape to start. If I could have one back here it would be Shamburger but academic casualties are what they are.

 

[Backwards K]

VOLSGRAD89

SEC West

1. Texas A&M
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Ole Miss
5. Arkansas
6. Mississippi State
7. Auburn

SEC East

1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. Tennessee
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. South Carolina
7. Vanderbilt

Yes, I am hopeful and wearing ORANGE COLORED glasses. What is everyone else's predictions? UT's D is going to struggle this year. But,
I really think UT will score enough points to be a minimum of 4th in the SEC East!

You misspelled delusional...........But, I do admire your optimism.

 

[miket4god]

I don' think that conclusion can be made either way at this point. I would say the most certain guy UT lost who won't be replaced by either scheme or personnel is Gray. He does things in space that you don't teach.

I would almost say there was a downgrade with the two OL losses... except neither was truly dominant or consistent while playing for UT. Morris had talent but continued to miss assignments and get beaten in pass pro.

Agree. I hadn't thought that much about Shrout but you are right considering his arm and reasonably good athleticism.
Chandler regressed. IMO, Evans and Small are both at least as physically talented as he was.

Gray has elite potential. I didn't feel good about Brown even when he committed and signed. I don't think what made him a very good HS RB would have translated very well. We've seen guys like him before.
Like I mentioned above, Morris had yet to play like a 5*. I think Johnson may have been the bigger loss.
Gooch? Seriously? He was not going to contribute this year under either staff. He was a project that is far from irreplaceable.
I think they're a huge unknown. Lots of raw talent but no performance to judge or experience. I think the focus will be on Jones to start then shift to more gifted players as they get comfortable.
Agree. No crisis in any of this.
Henry T for Mitchell is probably pretty close. Peterson was widely considered a bust who was unlikely to get on the field. Crouch wasn't a very good LB... or else was poorly coached. We do not know where French was going to play if at all.

It is a position of concern but most of that comes down to how much flexibility the other guys have. How interchangeable can the Will and Mike LB's become? OurLads lists Banks, Mitchell, Page, Garland, Willis, Beasley, Harrison, and Joseph in a 4 deep at those two positions. If 4 of those guys are interchangeable and can play 90% of the minutes between them then it may not be bad at all. I know Monte is Monte... but I remember the no names UT plugged in at LB in 2009 while having a pretty good D overall.

Lawrence is in his 4th year out of HS and has never actually played, right? He may have all the physical talent in the world but I don't have much confidence in a guy who leaves his original choice, sits out, declines to play for his new team,.... and then is so unstable that he transfers again.

I like Buchanan and want to see something before believing in the other two. Right now, I'd call this a push at a position that was in reasonably good shape to start. If I could have one back here it would be Shamburger but academic casualties are what they are.

Not sure what you're talking about here. Key Lawrence was a true freshman last year and was starting to play well at the end of the year.
And Morris, Johnson and Gooch may not be irreplaceable, but we didn't replace them with anyone from the portal. They're depth if nothing else.

 

[IluvdoubleD's]

Phil Steele 2020 Predictions

1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. Tennessee
4. Kentucky
5. South Carolina
6. Missouri
7. Vanderbilt

1. Alabama
2. A&M
3. LSU
4. Auburn
5. Ole Miss
6. Mississippi State
7. Arkansas

2020 Reality:

1. Florida
2. Georgia
3. Missouri
4. Kentucky
5. Tennessee
6. South Carolina
7. Vanderbilt

1. Alabama
2. A&M
3. Auburn
4. Ole Miss
5. Arkansas
6. Mississippi State
7. LSU

That looks pretty damn close. Did better then most. He missed on LSU, So did we all. If you can beat him do it!

 

[volsack]

Since 2012, teams that entered a season with a new QB, OC, and lost more than 10 starters have only covered the spread in 40% of their games that season. That puts UT at about a 3-4 win team

 

[IluvdoubleD's]

That is exactly the kind of stuff his algorithms studies, but he does tend to favor UT a little and bump us usually, not this year. Hopfully that's a sign lol:

 

[GoDucks349]

PHIL STEELE
SEC West

1. Alabama
2. Texas A&M
3. LSU
4. Ole Miss
5. Auburn
6. Mississippi State
7. Arkansas

SEC East

1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. Kentucky
4. Missouri
5. South Carolina
6. Tennessee
7. Vanderbilt

Historically Phil has not been biased against us.

Phil Steele is always a joke, nationally he has Oregon ranked 19th, 2 spots above ASU and 4th in the PAC-12.

All that's important to Steele is that he has the first predictions of the season and sells mags to hungry football fans.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Phil Steele is always a joke, nationally he has Oregon ranked 19th, 2 spots above ASU and 4th in the PAC-12.

All that's important to Steele is that he has the first predictions of the season and sells mags to hungry football fans.

He's never first, Lindy's and Athlon came out over a month ago. The whole PAC-10 is a joke.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

if we end up sixth out of seven in the east at the end of the year, we wasted whole lot of money!

How so?

 

[GoDucks349]

He's never first, Lindy's and Athlon came out over a month ago. The whole PAC-10 is a joke.

LOL, last time the PAC was the PAC-10, A&M and Missouri weren't in the SEC

Even if I'm wrong, do you think Lindy's, Athlon or Steele really do actual research before doing predictions?

My bet is that they review, last years mag sales and teams from fan bases areas that actually bought their mags get rated higher.

It's been some time but I remember looking at a Steele pub where he listed Oregon's starting QB wrong, the guy had transferred 6 months earlier. The guy is a joke.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

LOL

Even if I'm wrong, do you think Lindy's, Athlon or Steele really do actual research before doing predictions?

My bet is that they review, last years mag sales and teams from fan bases areas that actually bought their mags get rated higher.

It's been some time but I remember looking at a Steele pub where he listed Oregon's starting QB wrong, the guy had transferred 6 months earlier. The guy is a joke.

I doubt that was Steele. Steele's magazine this year is 351 pages long. Yes, he does research. I agree with you about many others though.

 

[Rooster1]

LOL

Even if I'm wrong, do you think Lindy's, Athlon or Steele really do actual research before doing predictions?

My bet is that they review, last years mag sales and teams from fan bases areas that actually bought their mags get rated higher.

It's been some time but I remember looking at a Steele pub where he listed Oregon's starting QB wrong, the guy had transferred 6 months earlier. The guy is a joke.

Almost none of that is true, like this guys previous post.