Phil Steele's Projected SEC Order of Finish

[vegasvolfan]

PHIL STEELE
SEC West

1. Alabama
2. Texas A&M
3. LSU
4. Ole Miss
5. Auburn
6. Mississippi State
7. Arkansas

SEC East

1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. Kentucky
4. Missouri
5. South Carolina
6. Tennessee
7. Vanderbilt

Historically Phil has not been biased against us.

Figures the year that everyone has a dip in O we lose almost our entire D

 

[cbatey1]

He also don’t have Florida in the top 25
Phil Steele releases 2021 preseason Top 25 rankings

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

He also don’t have Florida in the top 25
Phil Steele releases 2021 preseason Top 25 rankings

That's what I was telling another guy above. Florida lost ALOT. People don't realize.

 

[cbatey1]

That's what I was telling another guy above. Florida lost ALOT. People don't realize.

Yeah I didn’t read all the responses and figured it might have been mentioned. As bad as I hate the gators I still see no way they aren’t a top 25 team unfortunately. Flame away lol

 

[VolunteerVandiver]

Phil Steele has been burned by the VOLS too many times

 

[CINCYVOL]

Objectively, I agree with Kentucky and Mizzou being ranked ahead of us, but I'm a little surprised by South Carolina. Phil knows his stuff though.

Phil has been guilty of over valuing the Vols for a few years, hopefully this ranking has the opposite effect on the actual record

 

[BigOrangeAl 1979]

He has us and South Carolina in the wrong order.[/QUOTE. It’s a coin flip to me.

 

[BigOrangeAl 1979]

Sounds about right. I think Tennesee goes 5-7 and 2-6 in SEC play.

 

[BigOrangeAl 1979]

Kentucky and Mizzou both have very workable schedules. Mizzou wastes their bye week on Vandy but has tough games spread out. Mizzou lost Bolton at LB and a few other stars but found a QB.

KY has FL, LSU and GA back to back. KY has an edge in the trenches but other than C-Rod, they don't have a ton of talent at the ball handling positions. Also KY lost their 6 best players on Defense including Bohana, and their steller CBs. They don't reload like bama and GA, so they will have their struggles.

Tennessee can finish as high as 3rd but I don't think 6th is the cellar for them, I think it is 5th.

SCAR: Beamer and his new OC have never called plays before. Their horrible defense isn't going to be resurrected overnight either.

Kentucky will beat us again.

 

[BigOrangeAl 1979]

I also think their new OC will be another dud like James Coley

Georgia is gonna be really good this year on both sides of the ball they finally have the QB and offense to win it all.

 

[BigOrangeAl 1979]

Kentucky 3rd? Wow. They’ve had the team to beat us 4 years in a row. In no way would we keep a coach who is 49-50 after 8 years on the job. But Stoops has been able to slowly build a competitive program. He can recruit to a system and build a culture, and now they put more players in the NFL than us . Stoops started the same year as Jones, which seems like ages ago.

I’m truly baffled why S Carolina is rated above us, though. That’s a must win if we want bowl eligibility this year.

. Simply put South Carolina has more players returning and more depth I think that’s one of the reasons that they are ranked above us. No team lost as much as we did thru the transfer portal. Pruitt nuked this program and we will feel it for years to come.

 

[Tnslim1]

If Colonel Cornpone was still at the helm I'd agree with Mr Steele on our place in the pecking order but I'm taking into account the fact we finally have a decent/good coaching staff that will instill confidence, energy and enthusiasm in our football team. I see us a solid 3rd in the East or higher after our upset of the Gators.

 

[kckempf]

So in the East last year he overrated us by 2 spots and underrated Missouri by 3. The rest of the teams were on point or within 1 spot of where he predicted.

In the West he overrated LSU by 4 but everyone else was on point or within 1 spot of where he predicted.

So applying those odds from last year, there is a 78% chance (11/14) we will end up within 1 spot of where he has us ranked. Probably pretty close to that.

The thing I am really interested in is the 247 team talent composite rankings for 2021 when they come out. We were No. 15 last year. I think it's a given we go down, it's just a question of how far. If we've gotten more out of the Portal than we've lost as some contend we should rise though.

I appreciate your work on this, but it's a misapplication of statistics to try to predict a chance of error based on a single observation. You could make a rating of his error each year, then take that rating over the last 20 years too try to make a prediction of how far off it should be this year. I haven't done that, because I don't think it's as relevant as talking about strong and weak points of Steele's analysis.

 

[wmcovol]

I’m not Phil Steele but I see A&M being a big disappointment this year. They lost their QB most Wrs & 4/5 of their OL. I don’t see their defense being good enough to challenge.

 

[MADISONGAVOL]

PHIL STEELE
SEC West

1. Alabama
2. Texas A&M
3. LSU
4. Ole Miss
5. Auburn
6. Mississippi State
7. Arkansas

SEC East

1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. Kentucky
4. Missouri
5. South Carolina
6. Tennessee
7. Vanderbilt

Historically Phil has not been biased against us.

South Carolina, its amazing they are more talented than us

 

[HuntlandVolinColo]

. Simply put South Carolina has more players returning and more depth I think that’s one of the reasons that they are ranked above us. No team lost as much as we did thru the transfer portal. Pruitt nuked this program and we will feel it for years to come.

Maybe so but their defense was atrocious last season and other than coaches they have done nothing to address it. They do have one of the best RBs in the conference in Harris but the other 5 star RB they are hyping up is coming off an ACL and will be iffy at best. SCAR probably has one of the 2 worst starting QB in SEC too.

 

[BigOrangeAl 1979]

Maybe so but their defense was atrocious last season and other than coaches they have done nothing to address it. They do have one of the best RBs in the conference in Harris but the other 5 star RB they are hyping up is coming off an ACL and will be iffy at best. SCAR probably has one of the 2 worst starting QB in SEC too.

I think it’s a tossup between us and them it’s a game we have to win at home this season.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

I appreciate your work on this, but it's a misapplication of statistics to try to predict a chance of error based on a single observation. You could make a rating of his error each year, then take that rating over the last 20 years too try to make a prediction of how far off it should be this year. I haven't done that, because I don't think it's as relevant as talking about strong and weak points of Steele's analysis.

I realize one year is not a large sample size, but one year of data is what Bearded gave me and I was just using the data he gave me to show that Steele's predictions were in fact pretty close. Steele is widely recognized as consistently one of the most accurate prognosticators in the business because unlike alot of talking heads, he puts in the work. I respect that.

 

[WestTennesseeVol]

Until further notice, it’s always gonna be UGA/UF as the 1/2 and Vandy as the 7. 3-6 doesn’t really matter and might as well be interchangeable.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

I appreciate your work on this, but it's a misapplication of statistics to try to predict a chance of error based on a single observation. You could make a rating of his error each year, then take that rating over the last 20 years too try to make a prediction of how far off it should be this year. I haven't done that, because I don't think it's as relevant as talking about strong and weak points of Steele's analysis.

I realize one year is not a large sample size, but one year is what Bearded used and I was just using the data he gave me to show that Steele's predictions were pretty close. Steele is consistently one of the most accurate prognosticators in the business because unlike alot of talking heads, he puts in the work. I respect that.

I’m not Phil Steele but I see A&M being a big disappointment this year. They lost their QB most Wrs & 4/5 of their OL. I don’t see their defense being good enough to challenge.

They've recruited really well in recent years, they'll be pretty good I think if they find an answer at QB.

 

[HuntlandVolinColo]

I’m not Phil Steele but I see A&M being a big disappointment this year. They lost their QB most Wrs & 4/5 of their OL. I don’t see their defense being good enough to challenge.

I really don't see anyone other than LSU challenging aTm for 2nd.

aTm has had Top 5 recruiting classes for the last 3 or 4 years. They also got that highly touted transfer QB Hanes King.

 

[ThreatLevelOrange]

. Simply put South Carolina has more players returning and more depth I think that’s one of the reasons that they are ranked above us. No team lost as much as we did thru the transfer portal. Pruitt nuked this program and we will feel it for years to come.

SCar will be an interesting team. First time head coach and an OC that’s never called plays. And their D was awful last year. But yes, they return more than we do.

 

[Jaws]

I feel like I’m a fairly knowledgeable college football fan, but I don’t get Kentucky. Honest question, what am I missing with them?

Did they sign some whiz bang young QB, is the entire twi-deep defense back, entire offense, both? I don’t get it, I’ve seen reputable publications predicting them at 9-3.

 

[Jaws]

Georgia is going to murder Florida this year. Florida is ranked 27 overall by Steele, they lost alot too, people don't realize, you've been psyched out by Jaws' nonsense. UGA will lose to Bama in the SEC championship game (again).

Ironic that you say that as I’m currently watching Florida murder Georgia on the SEC Network. That was a beat down, not as close as the 16-point margin of victory would indicate.

So Florida will be much improved on defense, Georgia will be slightly improved on offense (maybe). I know they think they have their savior at QB, but they think that literally about every guy that starts for them, until someone wrecks them (see Stetson Bennett vs Florida).

Georgia will have their usual good defense (although they weren’t very good vs Florida), and Florida will have their usual good offense.

I expect Florida to beat Georgia which will be Georgia’s second loss of the season. I’m expecting them to drop another game somewhere along the way and Georgia fans will begin calling for Bowl Cut’s scalp. He’s Mark Richt, only defensive-minded and less likable.

 

[Jaws]

Thing about Florida is they are not in a good situation at QB. It all starts there.

Huh? I don’t understand this sentiment at all. Sounds like what many were saying about Trask before last year. Emory Jones is the highest rated recruit at QB Mullen has ever signed. He has three years of quality playing time against SEC competition, in major bowl games, knows the offense inside and out, and most importantly, is coached by Dan Mullen who is an absolute expert at putting his QB’s in positions to excel, calling plays to suit their strengths and avoiding weaknesses. Emory is better prepared to play well immediately than Franks or Trask.

Say it goes badly for Emory and he’s not as good as many think, or he gets hurt. Florida has the most gifted athlete at QB behind him since Tebow. If you don’t know about Anthony Richardson, you better research. I just watched him dunk a ball from the free throw line at 6’4” 240lbs. I know that doesn’t necessarily translate to QB play, but he’s one freak athlete. I cannot wait to see this young man play.

Carlos Del Rio also on the roster as a true Freshman. Very highly regarded.