Several years ago Bill Connelly identified what he called the 5 factors for winning football. They are explosiveness, efficiency, turnover margin, finishing drives, and field position.
I’ve previously posted efficiency rankings for a number of years (offense and defense) for a number of teams, including UT, UCF, and our regularly scheduled SEC opponents. We’ve not been all that consistent with efficiency on either side of the ball – but we have had a few years when we did decent. Those were the years where we won the most games.
I’ve also posted the drive finishing percentages for the UCF offense under Heupel. I didn’t post ours but I assume intuitively that it’s not been that good, particularly in the past 3 years.
I don’t have field position yet but in looking at turnover margin during the Heupel years, UCF was at the top of their conference all three years with a significantly positive turnover margin. We haven’t had a positive turnover margin against SEC opponents in any year since 2009.
That leaves the remaining factor of explosiveness. I looked at the number of plays per game that gained over 10 yards and used that as my measure. The comparison is for 3 years (2018, 19, & 20) and looks at UCF, UT, UA, UF, & UGA.
Heupel will probably score a lot of points but it may be Tim Banks who wins those extra games for us. jmo.
I think Florida's passing game could fall off the map this year so if we can contain their run game - and assuming our offense is clicking - in his first road game as a Vol, Heupel may have a shot to stroll into the swamp in September and bring home our first win there since 2003. jmo.
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