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I’ve been studying how some gamblers handicap football games. It appears that many do an in depth analysis of the two teams and keep that analysis updated in real time. I was investigating this because I was interested in the talent vs experience debate. Different people have different takes and presumably that’s where they place their bets, against each other. jmo.
The idea of returning production is generally the standard nowadays for measuring experience but it also measures something else handicappers favor, Continuity. The thinking is a group of guys who have been playing together for 2 or 3 years are potentially going to be more of a team than a bunch of guys who don’t really know each other, in game wise. Continuity also has to do with coaching. Familiarity with the schemes, calls, etc., contributes to the improved play speed for the team. jmo.
I think our new coaches (based on their comments) are going to try where possible to make the installs easy for the guys to pick up by relating it to what they have already been taught. On the LOS for example we’ve just been shuffling SEC coaches for the most part. I also get the idea that we’re deliberately trying to simplify both sides of the ball. Heupel has had a smooth transition before, taking over from Frost at UCF. I think this would be a legitimate point in his favor. jmo.
Offense –
Assuming Harrison Bailey is our QB, Hyatt and Jones are his most experienced returning receivers, we’re going to need at least two additional guys to step up in the receiving room. Since this is the top position supposedly where talent is more important than experience I think we’ve got a few options. We could guess who might be #3 and #4 but I doubt we know who it’s going to be. I’m still waiting for Ramel Keyton to make a leap in his performance. Obviously, we need at least 4 WR guys in this offense. I like Kodi Burns coaching this position and I think this is a significantly improved advantage to the room. I think the total number of targets likely increases by more than 50% per game so we could end up with some really fired up receivers. jmo.
I think Jacob Warren is probably my #1 TE but we have experience with Pope and Fant coming back so Golesh will have some guys to work with. I think Warren is perhaps the best receiver in the group and Pope is maybe the best blocker. I hope we don’t use them that way because doing so would telegraph our plays. Reading personnel is the first thing a defense does because some offensive coaches aren’t sophisticated enough or intelligent enough to not show their cards to the players around the table before making a bet. I’ve always, even when he was here with Dooley, thought Chaney was infuriatingly predictable. I also think that’s one of the reasons a lot of people at multiple schools no longer thinks his offense works in the SEC. jmo.
We don’t really have any proven running backs. Small had 26 carries last year and no one else got out of single digits. This is not one of our more talented position groups so big questions here moreso because Heupel’s offense, like Kiffin’s offense at Ole Miss, is predicated on being able to run the football. Many I think are hoping Evans and/or some of the other guys in the room will get the job done and that could very well happen but at this point it’s as a minimum unproven. jmo.
On the offensive line we have a lot of talent and a lot of experience in the interior positions but according to Troy Fleming the roster last year did not have a single offensive tackle. In his assessment we had a lot of guards and this included Wanya Morris, Cade Mays, Darnell Wright, K’Rojhn Calbert, and Jahmir Johnson. Speculation has in the past centered around moving Perry to tackle because for a big man he is thought to move well and has good speed but obviously this is a position that theoretically benefits more from experience than any other position group. In order for our offensive line to live up to its potential we need to fix the tackle positions, somehow. jmo.
Returning production is thought to be more important at the beginning of a season and its value slowly recedes as the season progresses, which for obvious reasons, seems to make sense. In the back half of the season assuming the coach hasn’t lost the team, talent can likely claim an advantage over experience in almost every position group. jmo.
So starting out 2021 my two biggest concerns and I think likely the concerns of many gamblers with our offense this year are likely the issues we have at the tackle positions and the lack of proven production and talent at the running back position. Anything else is potentially a distant secondary concern. jmo.
Defense –
I’ve previously claimed that I think the defensive line will be the strength of our defense this year owing to both talent and experience and now even moreso with Rodney Garner coaching the group. We have numbers on the inside with a lot of options at Tackle. I think we have numbers on the weakside as well with talent and at least some experience. I think Tyler Baron is lonely on the Strong side because I’m not sure who else can fit there in a 4-man front. A lot of our guys are just short, at the low end of the prototypical size. The only guy I can figure right now is Garland. He came in as an SDE but I don’t know if he can fit the position anymore. I think we need to find somebody to back up Baron and maybe a couple guys. jmo.
At linebacker I’m guessing our best bets might be Beasley and Banks. This room is the biggest mystery to me because while we have a little bit of talent we don’t have much experience. I thought it was interesting in looking at the Alabama-Georgia matchup last year that Moses and Harris played every single defensive snap for Saban, 70 in all for the game. He does that. With all the talent in the world, in big games, he doesn’t take his best players off the field. In that same game every one of his offensive linemen played every single snap, 76 in all. A few years ago against Clemson he had 3 guys in his secondary go over 100 snaps for the game. Clemson ran 99 plays so I assume the added snaps were from replays due to penalties. I don’t know if we’ve got guys that we can keep on the field in the defense for the entire game but we may not have a lot of choice. jmo.
I like our secondary. We have a little talent and a lot of experience. We even have a little bit of depth. I also like our coaches in the backend. Even with losing Bryce I’m not sure there’s a lot to worry about with this group. I know, famous last words. jmo.
Random -
I’ve said before I don’t subscribe to the idea that Pruitt wasn’t developing our players. I think from a technique standpoint and a physical development standpoint they did okay. Where I think Pruitt and Co. failed is in sort of building the team. That’s all about attitude. I think he lost the team in 2018 and regained their confidence and enthusiasm for the game somewhat in the midst of the 2019 season and then threw it all under the bus at halftime in the Georgia game of 2020. Experience in the game is in my opinion more than 50% of the development process but the most important thing to develop is the competitive attitude. He assumed it and it destroyed his opportunity with us as a head coach. It should not be taken lightly that the new staff has placed an unfamiliar emphasis on our guys having fun. jmo.
One of the most critical profiles that Matt Campbell uses in prospect evaluations is whether or not the kid is a football junkie. He’s sorting through the ranks of lower rated players looking for those select kids that have a tremendous passion for the game. It’s I think one of the key reasons he is consistently able to do more with less. If anyone had the right to call his guys 5-star hearts I think it might be Campbell but then with him it wouldn’t be a joke. jmo.
Lastly, Nick Saban only recruits NFL prospects and he’s joined in that by guys like Ryan Day, Kirby Smart, and increasingly Dabo Swinney, perhaps among others. In looking at the numbers over the years it seems that more than 70% of the NFL prospects Saban signs don’t get drafted. In essence he has the best practice squad in the whole of college football and as iron sharpens iron it pays off for him. Most of those guys though never get to play, don’t get any real game experience to speak of and so the false hope he sells ends with their NFL dreams crashing and burning. I assume most don’t realize it until it’s too late. I would think that many of those kids would be superstars on other less stacked teams. Saban is a good salesman and he’s had outsized success I would argue at the expense of most of the guys he recruits because the one thing he apparently doesn’t tell a prospect or their family is that the NFL doesn’t draft practice players. jmo.
So as we approach spring practice I think we may need to keep a critical eye on the offensive tackles, the running backs, the linebackers, and the strong side defensive end. jmo.
