Your first and last sentences don't reconcile with each other. I do believe in the sentiment that if you don't believe your coach is the guy, then you go ahead and cut bait. In December, I wasn't sure how much covid had a role in this year and was willing to give it another chance. But, people inside the program obviously knew more than all of us. It was more than just coaching.
I don't agree that we handled it horrendously. Leadership was told of a problem, put a plan in place, and executed that plan. I said all along along that Plowman had a master's in strategic management, and she isn't dumb. We quickly hired a very competent AD and let him do his job. As you also say, it is way too early to determine how this will turn out.