VFL-82-JP
Bleedin' Orange...
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- Jan 17, 2015
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...because the Lord knows we could use one.
This bowl season has gotten me thinking about a trend that has been developing in division 1 college football, and what it might mean for the Vols' future.
Bear in mind, this is a hypothesis in development. Even I'm not convinced this is right, and it's my idea. Feel free to help me explore the strengths and weaknesses of the thought. But if you're just going to trash the Vols, get the hell out; you add nothing of value. Need people who will approach this with some introspection.
Okay, start with the trend. Offense is running away from defense in the college game today. Which leads to greater point spreads by game end. Evidence: the average (_average_) score differential in a semi-final game the past six years is 21 points. Think about that. The average. Among the four best teams at the pinnacle of the sport. I think we'd all agree, there's not a lot of separation between #1 and #4 each year. All very good teams, or at least three of the four. And often enough, a #3 seed beats a #2 or a #4 beats a #1. So really close to each other. And yet 21 points apart by the end of each game. That's striking.
Now the observation that triggered my hypothesis: Florida, a team that took the #1 team in the land to the wire in Atlanta, losing by just six points ("a close game" by any measure) to Bama...this Florida team goes to the Cotton Bowl short a handful of players (granted, they were mostly receivers) and gets TROUNCED by Oklahoma, a team we'd probably all agree is not as good as Bama or Clemson, probably about the same as Ohio State or Notre Dame. Florida gets WHUPPED. Thirty-five points. Huge, gaping wound. Over the loss of six players.
And Florida can't present the excuse that their players didn't want to be there, weren't motivated. They were fired up. We saw the pre-game interviews, the warm-ups, and the first few drives of the game. Florida's players were lit up, as were their coaches. They WANTED it. At least, until Trask threw three interceptions in a row, all in the first quarter, and let them down 17-0. After that, agreed, those gator players wanted to be nowhere near the Cotton Bowl. After that.
So here's the hypothesis. The Vols may not be as far from a return to competitiveness as we all think. Here, I'll talk you through that:
Our lads lost seven times this season. All by a margin of something between 11 and 31 points. On average, we lost those games by 19.7 points.
See what I see? We were closer to winning every one of our games than Florida was to beating Oklahoma. The same Florida who took Bama to 0:00 on the clock down less than a score. A Florida who was, as far as the world can tell, six players away from beating that Oklahoma team that trounced them.
Another way of looking at it: the Vols were, objectively and mathematically, closer to winning those seven games we lost, all seven of them, than the #4 team in the country normally (on average) is to beating #1 each year, or #3 beating #2.
So maybe we're not all that far away. Makes you think, huh?
We remember the days when close games were decided by just a few poiints. A single score. That is no longer the norm. Not among the best teams, and not among lesser teams. The advantages given to the offense over the past decade or two have resulted in games having wider victory margins. Consequently, teams can be closer in capability and still not be as close in score as they used to be.
...
Okay, that's it. I know, I know, if wishes were horses, and there's no such thing as a moral victory, and WE LOST THOSE GAMES DAMMIT! I get it. We have to win. There is no substitute.
But maybe we're not quite as many light years away from winning as we thought.
What do you think?
p.s. If all you're going to say is, "we'll never win with Jeremy Pruitt as coach," why don't you just go back to one of those 10,000 threads? This one isn't about Pruitt. It's about the program.
This bowl season has gotten me thinking about a trend that has been developing in division 1 college football, and what it might mean for the Vols' future.
Bear in mind, this is a hypothesis in development. Even I'm not convinced this is right, and it's my idea. Feel free to help me explore the strengths and weaknesses of the thought. But if you're just going to trash the Vols, get the hell out; you add nothing of value. Need people who will approach this with some introspection.
Okay, start with the trend. Offense is running away from defense in the college game today. Which leads to greater point spreads by game end. Evidence: the average (_average_) score differential in a semi-final game the past six years is 21 points. Think about that. The average. Among the four best teams at the pinnacle of the sport. I think we'd all agree, there's not a lot of separation between #1 and #4 each year. All very good teams, or at least three of the four. And often enough, a #3 seed beats a #2 or a #4 beats a #1. So really close to each other. And yet 21 points apart by the end of each game. That's striking.
Now the observation that triggered my hypothesis: Florida, a team that took the #1 team in the land to the wire in Atlanta, losing by just six points ("a close game" by any measure) to Bama...this Florida team goes to the Cotton Bowl short a handful of players (granted, they were mostly receivers) and gets TROUNCED by Oklahoma, a team we'd probably all agree is not as good as Bama or Clemson, probably about the same as Ohio State or Notre Dame. Florida gets WHUPPED. Thirty-five points. Huge, gaping wound. Over the loss of six players.
And Florida can't present the excuse that their players didn't want to be there, weren't motivated. They were fired up. We saw the pre-game interviews, the warm-ups, and the first few drives of the game. Florida's players were lit up, as were their coaches. They WANTED it. At least, until Trask threw three interceptions in a row, all in the first quarter, and let them down 17-0. After that, agreed, those gator players wanted to be nowhere near the Cotton Bowl. After that.
So here's the hypothesis. The Vols may not be as far from a return to competitiveness as we all think. Here, I'll talk you through that:
Our lads lost seven times this season. All by a margin of something between 11 and 31 points. On average, we lost those games by 19.7 points.
See what I see? We were closer to winning every one of our games than Florida was to beating Oklahoma. The same Florida who took Bama to 0:00 on the clock down less than a score. A Florida who was, as far as the world can tell, six players away from beating that Oklahoma team that trounced them.
Another way of looking at it: the Vols were, objectively and mathematically, closer to winning those seven games we lost, all seven of them, than the #4 team in the country normally (on average) is to beating #1 each year, or #3 beating #2.
So maybe we're not all that far away. Makes you think, huh?
We remember the days when close games were decided by just a few poiints. A single score. That is no longer the norm. Not among the best teams, and not among lesser teams. The advantages given to the offense over the past decade or two have resulted in games having wider victory margins. Consequently, teams can be closer in capability and still not be as close in score as they used to be.
...
Okay, that's it. I know, I know, if wishes were horses, and there's no such thing as a moral victory, and WE LOST THOSE GAMES DAMMIT! I get it. We have to win. There is no substitute.
But maybe we're not quite as many light years away from winning as we thought.
What do you think?
p.s. If all you're going to say is, "we'll never win with Jeremy Pruitt as coach," why don't you just go back to one of those 10,000 threads? This one isn't about Pruitt. It's about the program.
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