Net Presidential Approvals (at this point) since Watergate
Landslides
1. Clinton + 25.6%
2. Reagan + 15.9%
Squeakers
3. W. + 5.6%
4. Obama + 1.9%
Trump -9.8% (With his EC advantage, Trump has a clear gap on the one-termers, but is behind the squeakers.)
One Termers
5. H.W. -14.0%
6. Carter -21.7%
Another thing to note. Recent polling leads that evaporated by election day or were inconsequential with 56 days left:
2016: Clinton 2.0% lead at this point - which was dead on - 2.1% in the end and totally worthless.
2008: McCain had a 1.2% lead at this point - Obama won by 7.2%
2000: Gore had a 2.9% lead at this point - his 0.5% lead in the end was also totally worthless.
Leads that held.
2012: Obama expanded a 3.5% lead to 3.9%
2004: Bush's lead dropped from 7.5% to 2.4% (If Biden drops that much, he loses.)
It is still anyone's race to win. Lots will happen before 11/3. 2020 is already feels like the longest century in human existence, so I expect great things.