In an effort to cut through some of the hyperbole and get a realistic sense of when a vaccine will be widely available, USA TODAY created a panel of nationally known experts in medicine, virology, immunology, logistics and supply chain issues to estimate how far we are from a coronavirus vaccine. Every month, these experts will track progress and highlight inevitable setbacks.
If you think of it as a clock ticking from midnight (when the pandemic began) to noon (when vaccines will be
widely available in the USA and life returns to something approaching normal), then as of June, the panel said it’s about 4 a.m.
“The sun has not yet peeked over the horizon, but the horizon glows in the East. We are no longer in darkness,” said Dr. Kelly Moore, associate director of immunization education with the
Immunization Action Coalition.
The USA TODAY vaccine panel is designed to offer readers an objective, nonpartisan understanding of how close we are to getting an effective vaccine distributed to the nation’s residents. We’re about a third of the way there, they said.
“I think we’ll have a vaccine by the middle of next year,” said Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital in Philadelphia.
Pamela Bjorkman, a structural biologist at Caltech University, said she agrees, though one of the hardest parts – scaling up to make enough doses of the vaccine – will be a major challenge.
“I subtracted an hour from the one-third of the way there estimate to account for manufacturability and distribution issues,” she said via email.