Coronavirus (No politics)

#3,652
#3,652
allvol123 said:
Good to hear you say. You seem to be very good at data analysis.

I posted 2 similar types of studies from Santa Clara and Colorado. Would you have reservations about anything you saw in either?
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For Santa Clara, I’m concerned about how people were selected for testing. There is likely some bias in the group you pull in from Facebook of people that think they could have possibly had it. I only read the press article, not a scientific article, so maybe they tried to control for that. Edit: just read part of the study and they did ask for prior clinical symptoms but not sure what they did with it.

Also you really need an understanding of false positives. If false positive is 0.3% let’s say, then what would the effect be? Then in 3300 tests you would expect 10 false positives. In their study they only got 1.5% positives. They then examined demographics as well as test sensitivity (that’s the bit about false - and +) and adjusted the percentage up to 2.5%-4%. I think this could easily generate a quite a bit of error. Likely not more than 30% up or down. For example with my false positive example that means they got 1.5% x 3300 = 50. But if you had ten false positives then that is actually 40. That is 20% error. You also have similar math due to false negatives. But could be larger (meaning they would adjust it up more for these than they did down for the false positives which is why you see the range move up from 1.5%)

I was pleased to see that they did try to correct for the fact that deaths are delayed behind cases. That could have been 3x error but they didn’t call into that trap.

So nothing inherently wrong with the study but big error bars. They got .1-.2%. The Lancet paper got .66%. The conclusion I would draw from this is the death rate is less than 1%. How close to that of flu (.12%) is going to take time and bigger studies to answer.

IN Colorado are you talking about Telluride? That study has been a mess due to test processing issues. Too small right now.
 
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#3,653
#3,653
TennTradition said:
For Santa Clara, I’m concerned about how people were selected for testing. There is likely some bias in the group you pull in from Facebook of people that think they could have possibly had it. I only read the press article, not a scientific article, so maybe they tried to control for that. Edit: just read part of the study and they did ask for prior clinical symptoms but not sure what they did with it.

Also you really need an understanding of false positives. If false positive is 0.3% let’s say, then what would the effect be? Then in 3300 tests you would expect 10 false positives. In their study they only got 1.5% positives. They then examined demographics as well as test sensitivity (that’s the bit about false - and +) and adjusted the percentage up to 2.5%-4%. I think this could easily generate a quite a bit of error. Likely not more than 30% up or down. For example with my false positive example that means they got 1.5% x 3300 = 50. But if you had ten false positives then that is actually 40. That is 20% error. You also have similar math due to false negatives. But could be larger (meaning they would adjust it up more for these than they did down for the false positives which is why you see the range move up from 1.5%)

I was pleased to see that they did try to correct for the fact that deaths are delayed behind cases. That could have been 3x error but they didn’t call into that trap.

So nothing inherently wrong with the study but big error bars. They got .1-.2%. The Lancet paper got .66%. The conclusion I would draw from this is the death rate is less than 1%. How close to that of flu (.12%) is going to take time and bigger studies to answer.

IN Colorado are you talking about Telluride? That study has been a mess due to test processing issues. Too small right now.
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Yes, Telluride, the CDC study I believe.
 
#3,656
#3,656
Regulator said:
My fella from a couple days ago just got moved up to ICU after being down here in the ER for 48+ hrs. Stable, not markedly better, swab results still pending.
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Is that based on bed availablilty or is that a positive sign? I appreciate you keeping us up to date and for helping out in one of the worst hotspots
 
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#3,659
#3,659
Can't believe the Florida governor reopened the beaches yesterday. Was this guy born stupid or does he try that hard? And to think people are actually losing their jobs for social distancing and this idiot does this...…………..
 
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#3,660
#3,660
overseasorange2 said:
Can't believe the Florida governor reopened the beaches yesterday. Was this guy born stupid or does he try that hard? And to think people are actually losing their jobs for social distancing and this idiot does this...…………..
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Yeah; wide open spaces, salt air, sunlight, the ability to move around. It's ****ing insane! Someone there will catch the Wuhan Cold and end up immune if he's not careful.
 
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#3,661
#3,661
overseasorange2 said:
Can't believe the Florida governor reopened the beaches yesterday. Was this guy born stupid or does he try that hard? And to think people are actually losing their jobs for social distancing and this idiot does this...…………..
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I guaran-damn-tee ya that it's more crowded as Ace and the nursery than it is at the beach today. Unbelievable, really. 2-3x more people at each than I've ever seen in 15 years.
 
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#3,662
#3,662
kiddiedoc said:
I guaran-damn-tee ya that it's more crowded as Ace and the nursery than it is at the beach today. Unbelievable, really. 2-3x more people at each than I've ever seen in 15 years.
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I tried Lowe's and Home Depot today. I'm not smart enough or patient enough to shop there under these circumstances. I've reached that point where I'd like my life back, damn the consequences.
 
#3,663
#3,663
Stores are pretty manageable down here I hear. I've only been out of the house four times in the last four weeks other than to ride the bike with the kids so I'm not sure. But it sounds like groceries vary store to store. The store my wife has been going to has been very manageable and many wearing masks and staying a good distance away. As far as home improvement stores, not very full parking lots it seems.
 
#3,664
#3,664
People in East Tennessee are acting like it's no big deal. A few masks. Stores are doing pretty good trying to keep the distance. Too many people are just getting too antsy.
 
#3,665
#3,665
drvenner said:
People in East Tennessee are acting like it's no big deal. A few masks. Stores are doing pretty good trying to keep the distance. Too many people are just getting too antsy.
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Past several weeks I had noticed a major decrease in traffic through town. Last couple days... it’s obvious people are over it. Traffic almost back to normal.
 
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#3,667
#3,667
overseasorange2 said:
Can't believe the Florida governor reopened the beaches yesterday. Was this guy born stupid or does he try that hard? And to think people are actually losing their jobs for social distancing and this idiot does this...…………..
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I bet people in the grocery stores and daycares are in way closer proximity than these people outside
 
#3,668
#3,668
Acuna_Matata said:
I bet people in the grocery stores and daycares are in way closer proximity than these people outside
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Definitely true. Media is making way too much of this. The rules are you can’t sunbath or sit on a chair at the beach - everyone has to be on their feet. No large groups. Plenty of things to criticize Florida for but this is not one. Note that Central Park in NYC remains open - I haven’t seen any media criticism for that even though it’s total area is much smaller than beaches around Jax, and the likelihood of virus exposure much greater there.
 
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#3,669
#3,669
OldandStillaVol said:
Definitely true. Media is making way too much of this. The rules are you can’t sunbath or sit on a chair at the beach - everyone has to be on their feet. No large groups. Plenty of things to criticize Florida for but this is not one. Note that Central Park in NYC remains open - I haven’t seen any media criticism for that even though it’s total area is much smaller than beaches around Jax, and the likelihood of virus exposure much greater there.
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I can't understand how sitting in a beach chair causes a problem, especially if you place it off the beaten path of the walkers. It actually should reduce your possible exposure.
 
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#3,670
#3,670
kiddiedoc said:
I guaran-damn-tee ya that it's more crowded as Ace and the nursery than it is at the beach today. Unbelievable, really. 2-3x more people at each than I've ever seen in 15 years.
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Went to Lowes at 8:30 this morning, packed to the gills. But they were smart and limiting how many people could go into the outdoor garden area.
 
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#3,674
#3,674
Reminder Tennessee is offering free COVID testing this weekend as they continue to do an incredible job of dealing with the virus outbreak. For the 3rd straight day recoveries have outpaced new cases.
Tennessee COVID update
90,586 completed tests (93% negative)
6,589 total cases (48% are in Davidson and Shelby counties)
3,234 recovered 48%
3,383 active
145 deaths 2.1%
East Tennessee active cases (83)
Knox County 54
Roane County 1
Loudon County 4
Anderson County 4
Blount County 2
Campbell County 3
Sevier County 0
Jefferson County 3
Grainger County 0
Cocke County 6
Hamblen County 1
Greene County 6
That's a total of only 83 active cases for the 12 Central valley counties.
 
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#3,675
#3,675
hog88 said:
Went to Lowes at 8:30 this morning, packed to the gills. But they were smart and limiting how many people could go into the outdoor garden area.
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Did the same here in East TN about 9:00, also packed, and they would not allow you to enter through the garden area: had to go through the one entrance they had open.
 
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