Stew Cook
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Can we get a comment on this from our medical team posters?
I'll ask you the same question I asked GAVol. In a country of 330 million people, how many people, in your opinion, should have been tested in the last 30 days?
Forget the death rate, I never understood where their forecasted infection rate numbers were coming from. They were forecasting 30-70% of our country would be infected. Let’s take the 30% number times 330M which yields 99M. Everyone said Italy was the best example of how not to handle the virus. They have roughly 152K people with a population of about 60M. If you apply that same infection rate to our population (330M) you get less than 900K cases. Granted, the virus isn’t done but the math doesn’t add up no matter what you do and it never has.When Fauci and Birx were citing 100k-250k, that was not from the IHME model. I don’t know what model that came from.
The IHME model’s actual mean estimate was never over about 94k. And for weeks was in a narrow range of 80-95k.
It wasn’t until it used new data to refresh its view on how many hospitalizations were required in the US vs the international data they used to seed the original model (their paper isn’t entirely clear on where the initial assumptions came from for hospitalization rates, but it mentions elsewhere they use Wuhan and Italy data initially because we didn’t have a lot of US data yet) and then process that through the full model that you saw the death counts drop from that range down to 60k. I believe that is because hospitals in many areas of the country were no longer being overwhelmed in the model whereas before they were.
EDIT: Looks like they updated their model today and it rose from 60k to 62k.
What’s the point of crapping all over hope? It’s effectively the same thing that Gov Cuomo said yesterday about New York. It’s tough but it’s flattening."Alabama was hanging 17 on us per quarter. Now it's up to 20. But they hung 24 on Georgia. Bama is getting its ass kicked."
How do you challenge that reasoning?
I agree 100% and the same is true of anything else the Republicans added. The stimulus bill should have only been about the virus but we all know that isn’t how the back scratching, under-the-table system of politics works.All of this could've and should've waited. Everything you see here is a way to kickback money to them. Not surprising considering the amount of money they're behind with donations compared to President Trump's campaign.
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