Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[TennTradition]

It’s almost like it’s really hard to predict exactly how that would play out with 50 different governors doing 50 different things on 50 different timetables.

The harder part is translating a policy into a number in the model. How strictly will it be adhered to. How undermining is the list of essential services. And once you have a handle on what you think it means for people movement, how does that policy actually impact the Reffective of that community.

That’s what’s interesting about the IMHE model. They called the peak fairly well which is highly dependent on those factors. They also - in their first model run around 3/20 (and published 3/26 in their pre-review paper) - predicted that the US would peak at around 2,300 deaths per day in the second week of April. I don’t know where we’ll peak but that has a chance of being right. They were never predicting millions of deaths in the first wave - or even a base case of over 100,000 deaths.

However, they were predicting upwards of 90k deaths - mainly because they saw hospital resources being overloaded. They still see that in NY - but to a lesser degree than they did. They also don’t see that for most of the rest of the country now. The primary reason seems to be because the international numbers they used for the number of patients that were hospitalized for every ultimate death, how long patients who never saw the ICU were hospitalized, and how long patients who do see an ICU are hospitalized ended up being wrong here in the US. They’ve updated their model with more US statistics as we’ve gotten them and those hospitalization rates have come down. I understand there are still issues there - it it’s also disingenuous for some to attack the model for its hospitalization predictions but ignore the pretty good job it’s done on predicting deaths thus far and peaks (to my surprise still).

 

[allvol123]

So is your contention that the inaccuracy of models after social distancing policies went into effect evidence that all of our epidemiological models have been worthless?

Oh, is that a pivot from blaming massive model failure on the difficulty of dealing with all the moving targets?

 

[titansvolsfaninga]

So is your contention that the inaccuracy of models after social distancing policies went into effect evidence that all of our epidemiological models have been worthless?

dammit sienz! dammit skool! librul indoctrination!

 

[0nelilreb]

Agreed. Instead of giving companies like Solendra millions the .gov should have doled the money out to home and business owners to install green energy production on their properties.

Ahhh Solendra ... now where have I heard that name before ?

 

[VolnJC]

A blue check reporter from The Atlantic lamenting that unemployment isn't higher. It's a shame that we can't rule these hacks non-essentials and make them live on unemployment for while.

 

[Stew Cook]

I absolutely agree.

One of our acreage requirements is a running water source so we can utilize hydroelectric and always have water along with rain water collection and storage. We’ve already got mass filtration at a 99.999% water purity accounted for.

So, what volume of water flow is suitable for running a turbine etc...? I've heard of this being done in locations where the water can be temporarily redirected, using gravity where elevation differences allow for efficient electricity production from relatively small turbines.

Do environmental regulations make this too restrictive to do practically?

 

[Stew Cook]

Ahhh Solendra ... now where have I heard that name before ?

Don't worry China has your back. Get your watts, bro... they're cheap

 

[volfanjustin]

 

[FLVOL_79]

Watching these religious leaders drop like flies after refusing to close up shop is mildly amusing.

 

[Stew Cook]

Watching these religious leaders drop like flies after refusing to close up shop is mildly amusing.

So, when one of them falls back and hits the floor, it's actually real, for a change?

 

[Purple Tiger]

Thanks ACA

More apt to thank republican governors who would not accept expanded Medicaid in their states.

 

[evillawyer]

 

[DinkinFlicka]

TDS ^^^^^^^^^^

You're on the other end of the spectrum as an orange nut hugger so I'm not sure why you feel accomplished in pointing out *his* obsession when yours is bad if not worse.

 

[PEPPERJAX]

Watching these religious leaders drop like flies after refusing to close up shop is mildly amusing.

God would have preferred that they used common sense instead of congregating like a bunch of idiots.

 

[Stew Cook]

God would have preferred that they used common sense instead of congregating like a bunch of idiots.

Nah.. God needs that money. Preacher needs a new pair of Cadillacs.

 

[RockyTop85]

im very “green” on an individual basis. Large solar and wind farms do not make sense as it just creates more infrastructure to take care. Encouraging individuals to install solar and wind at their house’s or business is where the focus of alternative energy should be

I think this makes a lot of sense. It would be difficult for our current house because of the way it is situated but I think a broad system of end-user maintained solar energy would significantly decrease our demand for non-renewable energy. Having everybody pay to maintain a big farm of the things and still have the fixed costs of coal or whatever seems wasteful.

 

[Smokey'sHandler]

Ben Shapiro has been talking about this same thing for a couple of weeks. The significant loss of jobs may create more of a health impact than the virus itself. The loss of jobs has the potential to bring additional stress to individuals which will will lead to depression in a lot of cases. Depression has the potential to lead to increased suicide rates etc.

He has really been clamoring that we need a plan for getting back to work and a vision of what that looks like because as the lockdowns continue the effects on the economy are only going to increase.

 

[Rickyvol77]

you must have a different definition of ghost town.

they are ghost towns compared to their normal rates...

 

[West Vol]

Oh, is that a pivot from blaming massive model failure on the difficulty of dealing with all the moving targets?

You don’t think that’s exactly why it failed?

 

[hog88]

More apt to thank republican governors who would not accept expanded Medicaid in their states.

Keep perpetuating the lie. Here are some actual statistics for you.

These 10 States Are in Danger of the Most Rural Hospital Closures

Status of State Action on the Medicaid Expansion Decision

 

[zeppelin128]

Watching these religious leaders drop like flies after refusing to close up shop is mildly amusing.

Worry not, that one dude shooed the virus away by blowing at it while his cult repeated every word he said. Surely that will work.

 

[Rickyvol77]

More apt to thank republican governors who would not accept expanded Medicaid in their states.

False again, the ACA has caused several hospitals to close down and it has little to do with Medicaid in the states

 

[PEPPERJAX]

Nah.. God needs that money. Preacher needs a new pair of Cadillacs.

LOL! Switching gears, I cannot believe I never stumbled across this meme until yesterday. Friend of mine shared this with me.

 

[Stew Cook]

LOL! Switching gears, I cannot believe I never stumbled across this meme until yesterday. Friend of mine shared this with me.

Heheh... I remember this. It's funny because it's true... it's been proven.

 

[allvol123]

You don’t think that’s exactly why it failed?

You are claiming model failure due to the difficulties of the modelers to grasp all the varying activities by governors? Is that correct?