Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#31,052
#31,052
Rasputin_Vol said:
Even still, you can't blame Trump or any of the NYC officials or New Orleans officials for not taking this threat seriously.

Again, you are Monday morning quarterbacking. Hindsight is 20/20. You are not being fair or reasonable.
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Yep they are all doing the best they can in a no win situation
 
#31,053
#31,053
Rasputin_Vol said:
And again, no one was talking this seriously in January.

And just curious, what would have been the solution at that time? More testing, apparently, is your solution. But then what?
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Test and contain - like we do every potential epidemic.

You can’t know where hotspots are if you aren’t testing.

You can’t enact targeted disease-specific protocols unless you know when and where to act.

You don’t have to test everyone. But you need accurate and available tests to find hotspots and then aggressively pursue cases there. Early.

This has nothing to do with January. The errors were made in February.
 
#31,055
#31,055
TennTradition said:
Test and contain - like we do every potential epidemic.

You can’t know where hotspots are if you aren’t testing.

You can’t enact targeted disease-specific protocols unless you know when and where to act.

You don’t have to test everyone. But you need accurate and available tests to find hotspots and then aggressively pursue cases there. Early.

This has nothing to do with January. The errors were made in February.
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we were doing symptom and contain.... what is the difference?
 
#31,056
#31,056
The tests weren't botched, they were sent to the CDC. Sending something like this to the CDC is as bad as sending a pregnancy test to Congress and getting their approval before the test gets conducted.
 
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#31,058
#31,058
TennTradition said:
Test and contain - like we do every potential epidemic.

You can’t know where hotspots are if you aren’t testing.

You can’t enact targeted disease-specific protocols unless you know when and where to act.

You don’t have to test everyone. But you need accurate and available tests to find hotspots and then aggressively pursue cases there. Early.

This has nothing to do with January. The errors were made in February.
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Most of the hotspots is not hard to figure out..... all major cities especially those with international airports..... where a lot of travel occurs.
 
#31,059
#31,059
TennTradition said:
We do this to some extent for every virus tracked from a public health perspective. Go look at flu deaths.
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To how much of an extent is it being with this virus? If healthy people aren’t dying of this in large numbers, then is it really killing people in large numbers?

Maybe this is more of a philosophical question. Somebody with a heart condition that dies after contracting COVID-19 but would have survived had they only had one of the conditions, what is the cause of death?

A blanket quarantine or stay at home order seems to suggest that people are afraid this is killing everybody, or everybody will require a hospital bed. I’m not sure that is accurate.
 
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#31,060
#31,060
volbeast33 said:
The tests didn’t work but we were quarantining anyways.... have they made up for it with their quick advancement in testing
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We WERE NOT quarantining in February. When did Trump give his famous “cases are not going up. They are going down. In a couple of days they’ll be down to near zero” comments? Hint: Not January. LATE February. We had no idea what was bubbling up around us because we weren’t testing. Because we couldn’t. Because we botched it.

And, you can’t really make up for that. We lost our shot at containment. So now we see widespread quarantine.

I’m not saying testing isn’t necessary now. We have done an incredibly better job in March then we did in February. We aren’t testing enough but they’re coming.
 
#31,061
#31,061
volbeast33 said:
Most of the hotspots is not hard to figure out..... all major cities especially those with international airports..... where a lot of travel occurs.
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We aren’t going to contain those places without evidence. But I agree that’s where you focus testing. Early. But we couldn’t. Because unlike South Korea we didn’t have the tests. Despite the same starting point.
 
#31,063
#31,063
VolStrom said:
The tests weren't botched, they were sent to the CDC. Sending something like this to the CDC is as bad as sending a pregnancy test to Congress and getting their approval before the test gets conducted.
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The testing roll-out / ramp up was botched.

Though there is plenty of evidence early testing was botched too (not enough swab contact time, bad instructions, etc.)
 
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#31,064
#31,064
rjd970 said:
To how much of an extent is it being with this virus? If healthy people aren’t dying of this in large numbers, then is it really killing people in large numbers?

Maybe this is more of a philosophical question. Somebody with a heart condition that dies after contracting COVID-19 but would have survived had they only had one of the conditions, what is the cause of death?

A blanket quarantine or stay at home order seems to suggest that people are afraid this is killing everybody, or everybody will require a hospital bed. I’m not sure that is accurate.
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Well there are a lot of reasons to think it is AT LEAST as deadly as flu and most likely MORE deadly. If we do this with flu, it tracks logically we’d do it for this virus as well.

Your last paragraph is off, IMO. I’d say that blanket quarantines reflect the belief that if we don’t slow the virus, ENOUGH people will need a hospital bed to swamp the system. Not everyone.
 
#31,065
#31,065
TennTradition said:
Well there are a lot of reasons to think it is AT LEAST as deadly as flu and most likely MORE deadly. If we do this with flu, it tracks logically we’d do it for this virus as well.

Your last paragraph is off, IMO. I’d say that blanket quarantines reflect the belief that if we don’t slow the virus, ENOUGH people will need a hospital bed to swamp the system. Not everyone.
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I guess my issue with this is even if it is more deadly than the Flu, is it $2 Trillion more deadly?

You point about enough people is fair enough. I would also point out that this isn’t just going away. Everybody that was at risk before will still be at risk after. So what are we accomplishing? Sooner or later we are going to have to live with it, right?
 
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#31,067
#31,067
If anyone wants the real way to stop this virus it's this: It will stop when it runs out of food, i.e. people that are vulnerable to it. Apparently the cdc thinks it needs a year to a year and a half for a vaccine, because heaven forbid 3 people might die from the vaccine versus 100,000 from the virus.
 
#31,068
#31,068
rjd970 said:
I guess my issue with this is even if it is more deadly than the Flu, is it $2 Trillion more deadly?

You point about enough people is fair enough. I would also point out that this isn’t just going away. Everybody that was at risk before will still be at risk after. So what are we accomplishing? Sooner or later we are going to have to live with it, right?
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Yes we will.

But you want to slow a virus like this with an R0 (think spread rate) that is so large - roughly twice that of flu, most likely - and has a reasonably high level of care required - and for a novel virus where no existing immunity was to be had.

It’s too easy to overwhelm medical systems otherwise and then your death rate soars - and not just from CV but for all the other people that don’t get the access they need.

But that doesn’t last forever. As more and more people get it, it will never spread as fast again even if it goes away and re-emerges in the fall due to increasing herd immunity. Once active cases peak, you can increase the Reffective by increasing contact again (ending quarantines) without lighting of an epidemic (active cases don’t grow), but how much you can do so depends on just how many people were infected in the first round. More infected means more you can go back to contacting because of higher herd immunity.

That doesn’t mean the risk is gone though. Individual risk remains - just not population risk. Meaning the onus shifts from the public (mass quarantines) to individuals (a lot of hand washing and/or self-quarantines for those at high risk).
 
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#31,069
#31,069
TennTradition said:
No we weren’t. In February? Most of the country didn’t think it was anywhere near them and weren’t containing at all.
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I work in healthcare..... at the time..... I know right after the first case was reported.... I sit in a meeting and they said they were testing for flu.... RVP..... and pneumonia.... they felt if you tested negative then we would make the patient self quarantine and anyone they had been in close contact with to do the same.... I’m not for sure the exact time but yes They were trying to slow it down without creating panic or shutting the world down.....
 
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#31,070
#31,070
TennTradition said:
We aren’t going to contain those places without evidence. But I agree that’s where you focus testing. Early. But we couldn’t. Because unlike South Korea we didn’t have the tests. Despite the same starting point.
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You do realize that South Korea had the same issue during their last major out break.... they fixed some of the issues and I am sure we will do the same for next time.
 
#31,071
#31,071
volbeast33 said:
I work in healthcare..... at the time..... I know right after the first case was reported.... I sit in a meeting and they said they were testing for flu.... RVP..... and pneumonia.... they felt if you tested negative then we would make the patient self quarantine and anyone they had been in close contact with to do the same.... I’m not for sure the exact time but yes They were trying to slow it down without creating panic or shutting the world down.....
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Oh - you are referring to self-isolation. My understanding is that quarantine is what healthy people do and isolation is what sick people do.

It would be really interesting to me the first date you can recall that a patient was out in let’s say 14 day isolation for a failed flu test but potential CV symptoms. I definitely recall people at my office testing negative for flu but having fever, chills, etc in February. They weren’t isolated. They chose to stay home but they weren’t told to for 14 days.
 
#31,073
#31,073
TennTradition said:
But that doesn’t last forever. As more and more people get it, it will never spread as fast again even if it goes away and re-emerges in the fall due to increasing herd immunity. Once active cases peak, you can increase the Reffective by increasing contact again (ending quarantines) without lighting of an epidemic (active cases don’t grow), but how much you can do so depends on just how many people were infected in the first round. More infected means more you can go back to contacting because of higher herd immunity.
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0.1 percent of the US population has a confirmed diagnosis. Do you really think that is going to be a big help in a reemergence next fall?
 
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#31,075
#31,075
TennTradition said:
Oh - you are referring to self-isolation. My understanding is that quarantine is what healthy people do and isolation is what sick people do.

It would be really interesting to me the first date you can recall that a patient was out in let’s say 14 day isolation for a failed flu test but potential CV symptoms. I definitely recall people at my office testing negative for flu but having fever, chills, etc in February. They weren’t isolated. They chose to stay home but they weren’t told to for 14 days.
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We definitely weren’t quarantining whole cities back then and don’t want to now..... it is a self inflicted wound that we don’t know what the lasting effects will be.
 
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