Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

Status
Not open for further replies.
#121,928
#121,928
jackcrevol said:
so you believe that this is inaccurate bc of lack of testing?
Click to expand...

Like others have suggested, there are a lot of variables but a really big one is that there's a huge number of active cases right now. So even if we had no additional cases pop up we'd still need to wait for the active cases to resolve one way or another to know the final mortality rate. jmo.
 
  • Like
Reactions: OrangenSC, drvenner, WriterVol and 2 others
#121,931
#121,931
In case ya'll have missed it this morning, there has been trailers rolling across the tv screen on FOX NEWS, OAN, and other national news channels of some potentially game changing news on a possible vaccine out of the Univ. of Pitt that is apparently on a fast track approval to the FDA. In layman terms, the vaccine would be applied in the form of a small patch containing 400 "needles" made from proteins absorbed thru the skin. It has already passed the lab mice test.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VOLSONLY, bullet20, tnhunter 10 and 8 others
#121,932
#121,932
Certain underlying conditions are clearly a big problem, but what about nutrition? As an example, Vitamin D status varies greatly across countries, regions, races, gender, age, and is known to affect susceptibility and duration of viruses. China is known to have some of the lowest Vit D of any country, and it's particularly bad in urban areas. Middle east (Iran) and southern Europe (Italy/Spain) is also known to be low. Ditto for New York and Washington state. And old people. Obese people. People with DM. And men are lower than women. May mean nothing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VOLSanon, SmokinBob, VOLSONLY and 2 others
#121,933
#121,933
GiggerVol said:
In case ya'll have missed it this morning, there has been trailers rolling across the tv screen on FOX NEWS, OAN, and other national news channels of some potentially game changing news on a possible vaccine out of the Univ. of Pitt that is apparently on a fast track approval to the FDA. In layman terms, the vaccine would be applied in the form of a small patch containing 400 "needles" made from proteins absorbed thru the skin. It has already passed the lab mice test.
Click to expand...
If you can find a link for it, that’d be awesome. I’d really like to give that a read
 
#121,934
#121,934
GojiraVol17 said:
If you can find a link for it, that’d be awesome. I’d really like to give that a read
Click to expand...

4/2/2020

PITTSBURGH – University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine scientists today announced a potential vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus causing the COVID-19 pandemic. When tested in mice, the vaccine, delivered through a fingertip-sized patch, produces antibodies specific to SARS-CoV-2 at quantities thought to be sufficient for neutralizing the virus.

The paper appeared today in EBioMedicine, which is published by The Lancet, and is the first study to be published after critique from fellow scientists at outside institutions that describes a candidate vaccine for COVID-19. The researchers were able to act quickly because they had already laid the groundwork during earlier coronavirus epidemics.
Click to expand...
COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Shows Promise
 
  • Like
Reactions: VOLSONLY, Brillovol and gordonr24
#121,935
#121,935
GiggerVol said:
It has already passed the lab mice test.
Click to expand...

No wonder the little guy got the virus. He was always touching his face.
giphy.gif
 
  • Like
Reactions: VOLSONLY, OrangenSC, Big Orange#1 and 7 others
#121,936
#121,936
ChattaTNVol said:
Like others have suggested, there are a lot of variables but a really big one is that there's a huge number of active cases right now. So even if we had no additional cases pop up we'd still need to wait for the active cases to resolve one way or another to know the final mortality rate. jmo.
Click to expand...

Agree.
I know some see unreported cases as some sort of ah ha glitch but doesn't sway my thinking at all.
Everything I'm looking at is "of reported cases". In turn, the number of expected cases would also be higher if you account for unreported, basically coming out to a wash. I'm indifferent if it's 1.9 or 2.7 percent mortality because that doesn't change hospital capacity, etc., (the real issues for unchecked) either way.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SmokinBob
#121,937
#121,937
scvolfan7 said:
Most of them wouldn’t need to go to the hospital
Click to expand...

You're right. Most wouldn't, but it's still a huge, huge problem.

This article from last week says 40% of hospitalizations are from age 20 to 54.

Younger Adults Make Up Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S.

Now that doesn't inform us as to how many 20-54-year-olds who get infected would be hospitalized, but it does suggest it wouldn't be a small number.

The only way I know to do this is to start at the total and work our way down. A lower end infection estimate was 33% of the US if unchecked. That's 105.6 million. 14% of those need hospitalization. That's 14.784 million. 40% of those would be 20-55 and that would give us 5.9136 million hospitalizations.

That's a projection from the total because that's where we have data for hospitalizations. If we mitigated certain portions of the population, that number would change, but keep in mind we've already mitigated large swaths of the population, and we're at 14% hospitalization with 40% of those in the "not old" adults category.

Hospital beds are estimated at around 1 million in the US. I read that 60-something percent are taken in normal times. Let's say they get that down to 30% for emergency-only cases. That's 700,000 beds, even tinier for ICU and ventilators.

5.9 million hospitalizations may be a high estimate. Let's cut it in half. Not good enough? Let's cut it to a third. A quarter? How about one-sixth? Even at one-sixth that estimate, you've still overrun the hospital beds by over 300,000 people. Maybe they stagger out enough to make a difference, but most free-for-alls say it would hit quickly and fade.

tl;dr: I've taken every low estimate I can and then some, and I still come out with too many cases for too few beds.
 
  • Like
Reactions: UTProf, hooter vol, drvenner and 2 others
#121,938
#121,938
That dang new Dyson ball vacuum, especially the one with the big ball canister are dangerous to operate! I suggest reading all operating instructions carefully BEFORE use!
 
  • Like
Reactions: SmokinBob
#121,942
#121,942
ChattaTNVol said:
COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Shows Promise
Click to expand...
“The authors are now in the process of applying for an investigational new drug approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in anticipation of starting a phase I human clinical trial in the next few months.


“Testing in patients would typically require at least a year and probably longer,” Falo said. “This particular situation is different from anything we’ve ever seen, so we don’t know how long the clinical development process will take. Recently announced revisions to the normal processes suggest we may be able to advance this faster.”

Not saying it isn’t promising, but it will still be a while before it’s available.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VOLSONLY, WriterVol, GiggerVol and 1 other person
#121,944
#121,944
scvolfan7 said:
Again, death is an inevitable part of life. Disease, famine, and war have been part of the human experience since the beginning. It sucks but to put society on hold over this is insane in my opinion. It’s an infringement of civil liberties and a waste of time considering that all the quarantine does is prolong the spread. Hell I just saw that the CDC director said this could last for two years. No way in hell are we going to be able to continue operating like this for two f***ing years.

At risk people should be allowed to stay home and receive whatever benefits they need, but the rest of us should be allowed to continue on with our lives as we normally would
Click to expand...
I guess it does not matter how many people you might spread it to who have no underlying conditions who are going to die from it also. I hope for your sake that any family members lucky enough to take care of you when you become old will have more compassion than you do.
 
  • Like
Reactions: barrylee, gainesvol82 and GiggerVol
#121,946
#121,946
YorkVol said:
“The authors are now in the process of applying for an investigational new drug approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in anticipation of starting a phase I human clinical trial in the next few months.


“Testing in patients would typically require at least a year and probably longer,” Falo said. “This particular situation is different from anything we’ve ever seen, so we don’t know how long the clinical development process will take. Recently announced revisions to the normal processes suggest we may be able to advance this faster.”

Not saying it isn’t promising, but it will still be a while before it’s available.
Click to expand...

Not sure why it takes a few months to start the trials, ie review, sample production, etc, but they need to get their ass in gear and start asap. I am curious to know how long it will take for actual production of billions of vaccines after the review is completed.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VOLSONLY, Ulysees E. McGill and OrangenSC
#121,949
#121,949
YorkVol said:
“The authors are now in the process of applying for an investigational new drug approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in anticipation of starting a phase I human clinical trial in the next few months.


“Testing in patients would typically require at least a year and probably longer,” Falo said. “This particular situation is different from anything we’ve ever seen, so we don’t know how long the clinical development process will take. Recently announced revisions to the normal processes suggest we may be able to advance this faster.”

Not saying it isn’t promising, but it will still be a while before it’s available.
Click to expand...
J&J is working to Fast track a vaccine also that is scheduled to start clinical trials in September. Like started above the first human release would be Q1 of 2021, but that is very fast track by FDA standards. J&J just donated $1B dollars to develop a vaccine in hope to deliver a billion doses soon at no profit to the public.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SmokinBob
New posts
Status
Not open for further replies.
Advertisement



Back
Top