My tracking of actual daily new COVID-19 cases in U.S. and projections.
3/1 = 7 3/5 = 63
3/10 = 290 3/15 = 737
3/20 = 5,594 3/25 = 13,335
3/26 = 17,244 (16,650 median predicted)
3/27 = 18691 (19,625 median)
3/28 = 19452 (23,250 median)
3/29 = 18469 (24,450 median)
Coronavirus Update (Live): 722,196 Cases and 33,976 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Predicted New Case Ranges Today
3/30 21,300 - 26,000
3/31 23,000 - 28,100
4/1 26,800 - 32,700
4/2 29,500 - 36,100
4/3 33,000 - 40,300
Predicted new Case Ranges 3/26
3/30 29,200 - 35,700
3/31 34,300 - 42,000
4/1 40,000 - 49,000
Assuming these numbers don't change overnight, it looks like a hopeful trend has emerged. Right now the transmission rate curve is bending downward, which makes a huge difference is how long we have to build capacity in the health care system.
Testing data resource:
The COVID Tracking Project
I'm also tracking growth of state cases per 10k population. This tracks the rise of cases, but once active cases in New York start to decline, I'll switch this to active cases only and track the decline in cases.
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