Thank you for the reply. I read through the article you have linked to and it states that the change in expected mortalities is a direct result of the social distancing measures put in place, rather than a change to the model itself as a result of more being infected than previously believed.
According to the article from The Daily Beast (
Expert Who Inspired Lockdown Says Britain’s Health System Will Now Cope):
"Ferguson said he now believes the number of fatalities in Britain could be well below the 20,000 he previously forecast. He told the BBC
Today program on Thursday: “With the lockdown now in place, those numbers are going to start to plateau.”
He clarified the confusion himself:
@neil_ferguson
Mar 26
1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
