My tracking of actual daily new COVID-19 cases in U.S. and projections.
3/1 = 7
3/5 = 63
3/10 = 290
3/15 = 737
3/18 = 2848
3/19 = 4530
3/20 = 5594 (5522 median predicted)
3/21 = 4824 (6771 median predicted)
3/22 = 9359 (9650 median predicted)
3/23 = 10168 (11,800 median predicted)
3/24 = 11075 (12,800 median predicted)
Coronavirus Update (Live): 436,481 Cases and 19,643 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Predicted New Case Ranges ran on 3/19
3/25 23,600 - 28,800
Predicted new Case Ranges Today
3/25 14,200 - 17,400
3/26 19,400 - 23,800
3/27 26,000 - 31,800 (should be falling below the average 1.33 transmission rate seen globally)
3/28 34,000 - 41,500
3/29 43,400 - 53,100
3/30 54,000 - 66,000
3/31 66,000 - 80,000 (transmission rate here would be about 1.2)
Again, we are actually bending the curve, even with the caveat of testing. Especially since a huge percentage of our testing is being conducted in a known hot spot in NYC. Since this is a very key point in our response, I provide my one week projections for comparison as we go along. If we can really flatten the curve, then those 3/31 numbers will be way too high.
Even if we can stay on the current glide path, we will be degrading the number of cases in two weeks, but we will have a very large number of cases to deal with and continuing hot spots.
A key factor is testing availability, and that will need to be watched to see if testing can keep up if the numbers of new cases.
Testing data is being kept by
The COVID Tracking Project
As of now:
Positive
53,192
Negative
299,928
Pos + Neg
353,120
Stay safe out there.