stock market was up today...

#8,551
#8,551
Velo Vol said:
Odds we have a panicked "NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT!!!" tweet from Trump in the next two hours?

ERjAxEjW4AEv8w7
Click to expand...

Odds on when we'll see a response from the democrats criticizing Trump for today's early market losses?
 
  • Like
Reactions: StarRaider
#8,557
#8,557
Septic said:
Time to buy.
Click to expand...
It probably will be in a few more weeks. I'd like to see a big rip (more like 10-15% off the highs in the major indices), then a bounce, then a re-test of that low. That'll be the time to buy.

This is all being blamed on the virus, which that might be the trigger, but look at the runs in the major averages and some of the big tech names since last summer. AAPL for example is up about 50% just since last summer. That is a staggering move upward for an already behemoth company. They've all gone up at what is basically a 45 degree angle with no shakeout. Let's shake some folks out trigger some stops/profit taking, then move higher again over the summer before probably getting shaky again before the election.
 
#8,559
#8,559
lawgator1 said:
It's an interesting situation. I can see Sanders winning the popular vote but losing electoral by wide margin.
Click to expand...
The more that the Democratic vote becomes concentrated in major population centers (I know it's been that way for a long time, but it is becoming even more so over time), the more that is likely in future elections. 100% of the populations of NYC, Chicago, and LA can vote Democrat and it doesn't really matter.

The real irony is that Democrats are closer than they have been in a really long time to turning red states like Georgia and Texas blue, but the current dynamic in their party isn't really going to allow them to nominate a Presidential candidate moderate enough to win those states. Hillary, despite losing blue states like Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin came closer to winning Georgia than any Democrat has since Bill Clinton.
 
#8,560
#8,560
05_never_again said:
It probably will be in a few more weeks. I'd like to see a big rip (more like 10-15% off the highs in the major indices), then a bounce, then a re-test of that low. That'll be the time to buy.

This is all being blamed on the virus, which that might be the trigger, but look at the runs in the major averages and some of the big tech names since last summer. AAPL for example is up about 50% just since last summer. That is a staggering move upward for an already behemoth company. They've all gone up at what is basically a 45 degree angle with no shakeout. Let's shake some folks out trigger some stops/profit taking, then move higher again over the summer before probably getting shaky again before the election.
Click to expand...

Fear based declines are generally temporary, it wouldn't surprise me to see these losses recouped in a day - though it wouldn't surprise me to see it not happen for another month, or tomorrow.

Anytime the market dips, buy. Wait too long or trying to time the bottom is a fool's errand. I do agree that the market was long overdue for a correction, not sure if this is it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BigOrangeD
#8,562
#8,562
05_never_again said:
The more that the Democratic vote becomes concentrated in major population centers (I know it's been that way for a long time, but it is becoming even more so over time), the more that is likely in future elections. 100% of the populations of NYC, Chicago, and LA can vote Democrat and it doesn't really matter.

The real irony is that Democrats are closer than they have been in a really long time to turning red states like Georgia and Texas blue, but the current dynamic in their party isn't really going to allow them to nominate a Presidential candidate moderate enough to win those states. Hillary, despite losing blue states like Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin came closer to winning Georgia than any Democrat has since Bill Clinton.
Click to expand...


All true. The country is changing. But polarization is itself not consistent. Weird.
 
#8,563
#8,563
Septic said:
Fear based declines are generally temporary, it wouldn't surprise me to see these losses recouped in a day - though it wouldn't surprise me to see it not happen for another month, or tomorrow.

Anytime the market dips, buy. Wait too long or trying to time the bottom is a fool's errand. I do agree that the market was long overdue for a correction, not sure if this is it.
Click to expand...
Market corrections generally dont happen from fear. I agree with your first paragraph.
 
#8,566
#8,566
Velo Vol said:
What is the bond market telling us?
Click to expand...
It's been saying for a long time that something not good is going to happen, but nothing has happened yet.

Someday, it'll matter. The ramp in equities is fueled in large part by yield/alpha chasing because rates are so low. That isn't to say it's 100% a sham, because the headline numbers on the economy actually are really good. There's too much debt generally in the system, and an adjustment is coming at some point which will likely be the genesis of the next bear market.

The ramp in credit assets like leveraged loans, etc. is fueled in my estimation almost entirely by yield chasing. You just can't make anything in savings.
 
#8,569
#8,569
Septic said:
Time to buy.
Click to expand...

Getting there. I think I want to see a little news about Coronavirus stagnating. I did sell two of my bigger positions last week as a defensive move to keep my gains. Good decision so far looking at today.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Septic
#8,570
#8,570
05_never_again said:
It's been saying for a long time that something not good is going to happen, but nothing has happened yet.

Someday, it'll matter. The ramp in equities is fueled in large part by yield/alpha chasing because rates are so low. That isn't to say it's 100% a sham, because the headline numbers on the economy actually are really good. There's too much debt generally in the system, and an adjustment is coming at some point which will likely be the genesis of the next bear market.

The ramp in credit assets like leveraged loans, etc. is fueled in my estimation almost entirely by yield chasing. You just can't make anything in savings.
Click to expand...
Only game in town.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 05_never_again
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.
Advertisement





Back
Top