NCAA Tournament chances

#27
#27
VolGee4 said:
I agree. I have always said to get to 18 total and 10-8 in conference.

We currently have 4 top 53 KenPom wins. If we add USC, Vandy, Arkansas, and UF or Auburn, then we add 2 more (although UF is moving down). At Arkansas and home against UF may be “playoff” type games to get into the conversation.
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Agree on all counts.
 
#28
#28
We have to get to 19 to have a shot which means wed have to win all 3 home games and snag 2 on the road. Very tough sledding. I put the odds at about 20% to make tourney. That A&M game was killer. UK game could have gotten us back in a good place.
 
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#29
#29
allvol123 said:
15%
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Too low, %35. If I'm being dead honest we will not make it but by a game that got away. Losing to A&M was a really bad loss and could keep us out if we were to slip up and lose to @Sc/Vandy/@arky/Fl. Those games are absolute must wins and I think we have got to beat one of the three against Aub/Kent left on our schedule. Losing to A&M was a loss that absolutely hurts us towards post season play in the dance but in can be overcome. If I'm a betting man, I'm betting we don't make it but damn I'd love to be wrong. Go vols!
 
#30
#30
I think we very likely will have to win 1 in the SEC tournament to go dancing. We'll either have 17 or 18 wins at the end of the regular season and we'll need one more either way to get in.
 
#31
#31
cncchris33 said:
I'm starting to believe that, too. Vandy, USCe, and Florida are pretty much, must-wins, as our easiest path to 18 wins. It means we need to steal one on the road at UK, AU, or Arkansas, or get an unlikely win vs AU at home.

That game in Fayetteville, where we haven't won since 2008, IIRC, is looking like a winner take all matchup.
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I know we haven’t won at Arkansas in forever but it really appears that we match up very well against this Arkansas team. Especially looking at the results tonight. I know we were at home, but in all honesty we haven’t been great at home this year. Get Josiah back and I think we can do this. I think we beat USCjr Saturday, Vandy at home next week, lose to Auburn on the road, beat Arky on the road, beat Florida at home, lose at Kentucky, and then I think we upset Auburn at home to end the season right. End the season 19-12(11-7) I predicted that earlier and I’m going to stick with it. If I’m wrong so be it, but just remember we’ve beaten Alabama and Arkansas(1 home and 1 away) without a key player. I know it seems like it doesn’t mean a great deal, but getting Josiah back will be a huge boost for us. Basically when Vescovi is resting now Bowden is the PG and that’s not great. Probably part of what cost us the Kentucky game.(Also, just poor shooting) I believe in this team though and I think they can do it. Can’t wait to see a strong finish! 18-13 then going 2-1 in the tournament to finish 20-14 I think gets you in as well. Anything less than that is gonna be tough, but finishing the regular season 18-13(10-8) with all we lost would be an outstanding coaching job IMO.
 
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#33
#33
bleedingTNorange said:
Most folks have Mississippi State in or right there, they are 15-9(6-5)...Vols are 14-10(6-5), not nearly as far off as many are acting. Getting to 18-13(10-8) likely means Top 5 SEC finish, given our projected end of year SOS that is almost certainly going to have us in.
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Agreed. Was thinking about this too, but if we continue to play strong defense as we have most the year. I think just shooting 40%+ field goal % would win us a lot of games.
 
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#34
#34
CNeagleVolFan said:
I know we haven’t won at Arkansas in forever but it really appears that we match up very well against this Arkansas team. Especially looking at the results tonight. I know we were at home, but in all honesty we haven’t been great at home this year. Get Josiah back and I think we can do this. I think we beat USCjr Saturday, Vandy at home next week, lose to Auburn on the road, beat Arky on the road, beat Florida at home, lose at Kentucky, and then I think we upset Auburn at home to end the season right. End the season 19-12(11-7) I predicted that earlier and I’m going to stick with it. If I’m wrong so be it, but just remember we’ve beaten Alabama and Arkansas(1 home and 1 away) without a key player. I know it seems like it doesn’t mean a great deal, but getting Josiah back will be a huge boost for us. Basically when Vescovi is resting now Bowden is the PG and that’s not great. Probably part of what cost us the Kentucky game.(Also, just poor shooting) I believe in this team though and I think they can do it. Can’t wait to see a strong finish! 18-13 then going 2-1 in the tournament to finish 20-14 I think gets you in as well. Anything less than that is gonna be tough, but finishing the regular season 18-13(10-8) with all we lost would be an outstanding coaching job IMO.
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I think whether they have Isaiah Joe back for the rematch will be a huge issue for how we match up. He is a major difference-maker for them.
 
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#35
#35
bleedingTNorange said:
Most folks have Mississippi State in or right there, they are 15-9(6-5)...Vols are 14-10(6-5), not nearly as far off as many are acting. Getting to 18-13(10-8) likely means Top 5 SEC finish, given our projected end of year SOS that is almost certainly going to have us in.
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I think you're right, 18 before the SEC tournament, the way we'd have to finish to accomplish that, would get us in the dance.
 
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#37
#37
Imagine the make up of this team next season. I think Vescovi is definitely your PG, Pons is gonna be the 4 if he returns, and Fulky at the 5. Not your typical bigs, but throw guys like Springer at the 2 and Keon Johnson at the 3 with guys like James, Walker Jr, Bailey, Johnson, Nkouhma, Plavsic, Gaines, and Pember in there. That’s a roster where every single guy can give you minutes, and in college basketball that’s very valuable. Then if Wideman and Beckwith do play basketball then that just adds to the crazy depth!
 
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#38
#38
CNeagleVolFan said:
Imagine the make up of this team next season. I think Vescovi is definitely your PG, Pons is gonna be the 4 if he returns, and Fulky at the 5. Not your typical bigs, but throw guys like Springer at the 2 and Keon Johnson at the 3 with guys like James, Walker Jr, Bailey, Johnson, Nkouhma, Plavsic, Gaines, and Pember in there. That’s a roster where every single guy can give you minutes, and in college basketball that’s very valuable. Then if Wideman and Beckwith do play basketball then that just adds to the crazy depth!
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Also, I love the Cardwell kid and wish we could fit him into this class. Has tremendous upside. Can’t have everyone though lol
 
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#39
#39
Great win tonight! Enjoy it! But, I still would bet against UT making the tourney. I know we have previously beat SC, but it was close on our court. It will be a toss up game in SC. Arky will also look for revenge also on their home court. I truly only feel good about beating Vandy. Florida is hard to get a feel for. I think the betting line for the last 7 games would put us around 2.5-3.5 expected wins.
 
#42
#42
If we win all but one of our remaining regular season games (unlikely but stick with me), here’s how our regular season will have went:
Win 7 of 8
Lose 4 of 5
Win 4 of 5
Lose 4 of 5
Win 7 of 8
Would be kinda neat and I think an overall result that most of us would’ve taken before the season (20 wins)
 
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#43
#43
CNeagleVolFan said:
Also, I love the Cardwell kid and wish we could fit him into this class. Has tremendous upside. Can’t have everyone though lol
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Imo, Cardwell could be the difference from being a Sweet 16 kinda team and being a Final 4 kinda team, next year. I know that may sound like crazy talk, but UT needs a kid liked this at the 5 unless Plavsic improves immensely by next season. I know Fulk plays the 5 mostly, but UT needs a guy that can be an elite rim protector and rebounder, so Fulk can do his thing, especially against teams with elite big men like Kansas and Kentucky
 
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#44
#44
Haha throwing out percentages, after this win our chances are better. Let's see if we can win the next one.
 
#45
#45
No quality OOC wins. Will have to upset AUburn , maybe twice to get in tourney. Losses to A&M and UGA hurt
 
#49
#49
bleedingTNorange said:
Most folks have Mississippi State in or right there, they are 15-9(6-5)...Vols are 14-10(6-5), not nearly as far off as many are acting. Getting to 18-13(10-8) likely means Top 5 SEC finish, given our projected end of year SOS that is almost certainly going to have us in.
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We're not far off in terms of how many wins we need but it's an uphill climb. You're right, the SOS gives us a great opportunity but the margin of error is razor thin after the A&M loss and the UK game coulda put us in much better spot too. Saturday is a must win in my mind. And then you have to steal one from AU or Arky again on the road, where we never seem to play well to have the best shot at getting in.
 
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#50
#50
appyvol said:
Have to win the next two.
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Agree. Win next two, and find way to win two of remaining 5, which would be two quadrant 1 wins, would probably be the minimum...and win a game or two in SECT. With Vescovi performing well, and if can keep Bowden in the 12-14 point range, and get JJJ back, we've got a chance. Offense was a surprise tonight, but our D has been pretty good all season...if we can just figure out how to get to 70 points, we're going to win some games down the stretch, where we're holding teams to 65 point range.
 
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