UT v. UK - ESPN Matchup Predictor says 53.8% Vols

#1
Z

ZDogPharizle

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#1
The ESPN Matchup Predictor, using EPSN's BPI algorithm, has the Vols as a 53.8% chance to win in Knoxville this Saturday.

Does anyone put any weight into the BPI or Matchup Predictors? I find it to be fairly a accurate predictor (in the sense that when they say it's a close matchup, it's typically a close game). Has anyone ever done any analysis of the Matchup Predictor v. Actual Results?
 
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#11
#11
Tennessee has always given Kentucky fits in Knoxville and I think we lead the series in Knoxville.
 
#12
#12
Kentucky is beatable despite their size. Pons would seem to match up well against them especially if we play our big lineup, so expect a good game from him. Our guards need to protect the ball which has been dicey this year. Don’t let Kentucky run and earn it in the half court and we have a chance but we have to shoot much better. Bowden needs to show up for 40 minutes.
 
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#13
#13
Namorto1 said:
Kentucky is beatable despite their size. Pons would seem to match up well against them especially if we play our big lineup, so expect a good game from him. Our guards need to protect the ball which has been dicey this year. Don’t let Kentucky run and earn it in the half court and we have a chance but we have to shoot much better. Bowden needs to show up for 40 minutes.
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We also have to keep their guards out of the lane and if they get there, we can't lose Richards and EJM.
 
#15
#15
It's a home game. Does that mean we are allowed to give UP 7 fouls? We really need some big body help in this game.
 
#16
#16
Barnes and Calipari have combined for 1,430 wins. (Calipari has 725 wins and Barnes has 705 wins)

Barnes is 7-6 against Kentucky.

Calipari is 16-11 against Tennessee.
 
#17
#17
KP also has the Vols favored, although that’s with JJJ playing...either way I would have a hard time seeing Vegas putting out a line with Tennessee the favorite.
 
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#19
#19
It's the ability of their guards to get to the rim especially Haggens and Maxey so ticket will see some action to try and stymie this. You make Ky beat you from the Arc. If they our on oh well but many times there way off.
 
#20
#20
ZDogPharizle said:
The ESPN Matchup Predictor, using EPSN's BPI algorithm, has the Vols as a 53.8% chance to win in Knoxville this Saturday.

Does anyone put any weight into the BPI or Matchup Predictors? I find it to be fairly a accurate predictor (in the sense that when they say it's a close matchup, it's typically a close game). Has anyone ever done any analysis of the Matchup Predictor v. Actual Results?
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ESPN's FPI has us favored in every football game a few years back. Tells you all you need to know about their "Power Index"
 
#21
#21
If Candy can beat LSU anything can happen but no way should we be favored
20200207_095934.jpg
 
#22
#22
If you are betting on Tennessee to win, then you are betting solely on the past. We typically play UK well at home, Barnes fairs well against Cal, rivalry game, etc.

If you were betting on the present (actual talent differential, personnel mismatches, and recent play) you would take UK to win.
 
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#23
#23
Bowden needs to figure out how to make a 3.

Vescovi needs to keep control.

Refs need to call a fair game. (Officiating is awful this year)

Pons needs at least three solid blocks.

Fulky...just keep hustling
 
#24
#24
PandamoniumReigns said:
Bowden needs to figure out how to make a 3.

Vescovi needs to keep control.

Refs need to call a fair game. (Officiating is awful this year)

Pons needs at least three solid blocks.

Fulky...just keep hustling
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It's really crazy how poorly Bowden has done from 3pt range in-conference. He is currently shooting 13.2% (7 out of 53). This is far below his second worst 3pt percentage (30.9% his sophomore year). And to add to this, he is still attempting more 3pters per game than any other year. He is attempting 5.9 per game, with the 2nd most being last year at 3.9 attempts per game.

It's crazy that he is attempting nearly six per game, and making less than 1 per game during SEC play. At this point, him taking a 3pt shot is almost always a wasted offensive possession.
 
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#25
#25
VEKZY said:
It's really crazy how poorly Bowden has done from 3pt range in-conference. He is currently shooting 13.2% (7 out of 53). This is far below his second worst 3pt percentage (30.9% his sophomore year). And to add to this, he is still attempting more 3pters per game than any other year. He is attempting 5.9 per game, with the 2nd most being last year at 3.9 attempts per game.

It's crazy that he is attempting nearly six per game, and making less than 1 per game during SEC play. At this point, him taking a 3pt shot is almost always a wasted offensive possession.
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The slump he is in from the perimeter is epic. Fortunately, he has recently found other ways to score and other ways to affect the game, primarily his defense.

Over his last 4 games, he is averaging 16 pts, 3.25 rpg, 2.25 apg, 2 spg, and is shooting 16-29 from 2 (55%). He is still only 4-21 from 3 (19%), but he seems to realize that he is currently more effective going to the rim and in the midrange. Prior to this 4 game stretch, nearly half of his total shots were 3s. In that stretch, it is down to 43% of his total shots being 3s. He has also gone to the foul line 25 times (a result of better looks), which is about a third of his season total in just 4 games, making 19-25 (76%).

Hopefully he continues with those adjustments and doesn’t revert back to settling for 3s, because defensively, teams should back off and make him beat them from there. As you said, it’s as good as a TO, at this point.
 
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