Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

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Converting the 4th down either by getting the yard or drawing them offsides 100% wins the game. Guess we’ll never know what you’re fretting over. 😔


Sure.

Imo we get that yard 3/4 times. The other 1/4 they score a FG a high % of times
 
I think it’s clear the best chance for Indiana to have won at that point was for us to go got it and not make it.

Punting them deep was going to be very difficult for them to drive the field in such a short time

You disagree ?
I don’t disagree. But us converting ends the game. And converting from 4th and less than 1 is more than 10-20%

But you still made up stats.
 
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I don’t disagree. But us converting ends the game. And conceding from 4th and less than 1 is more than 10-20%

Let’s try this math again.


Going for it:

We get stopped 1/4 times imo. Then they score a FG at worst 1/2 times after that

That’s 1/4 x 1/2 or 1/8 which is 13%


If we punt them deep
They score a FG less than 13% which was my point
 
Let’s try this math again.


Going for it:

We get stopped 1/4 times imo. Then they score a FG at worst 1/2 times after that

That’s 1/4 x 1/2 or 1/8 which is 16%


If we punt them deep
They score a FG less than 16% which was my point
1/8 would be 12.5%
 
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